Snow Graph

I’ve been putting together my yearly recap of our weather for the big winter weather meeting next week.  Here is the chart showing snowfall here at PDX the last 11 winters.  Click on it for a cleaner view.  You can see the effect of the big snow/ice storm back in January 2004, and of course the very snowy December 2008.  Otherwise, well, it doesn’t snow much around here!  Click on the link for details on the AMS Winter Weather Meeting.

We hit 80 degrees in Portland today.  Impressive for October 6th.  The last time we hit 80 in October was 2004.  It was definitely a bonus day!

Much cooler tomorrow with a southwest flow bringing in marine air and plenty of cloud cover.  We wait until Friday evening for a good soaking though.  Very good since I currently don’t have a roof on my house!  It’s getting replaced right now.  The frying pan in the attic below one of the leaking vents was just a little too “Whiskey Tango” even for me.  It was time to get those leaks fixed.

Plenty of rain still on the way this weekend, then another dry period for at least the first part of next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

83 Responses to Snow Graph

  1. billsaab says:

    It will be very interesting this winter. All the things I have read point toward LA Nina,with cool and wet,possibly cold and snowy. 3 to 5 degrees will mean so much.

  2. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    Temp has been stuck at 60 since 11:00am at KHIO.

    Now that’s some consistency.

  3. Runrain says:

    Heading to the San Juans tomorrow. They are expecting gusts to 45mph at Friday Harbor. I will be on a southern exposure part of the island with no land between my location and Port Angeles on the other side of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. There should be some pretty strong winds there, I would think.

    • muxpux says:

      i used to live in Oak Harbor. that place CONSTANTLY has high winds. its not unusual to have 40mph gusts. ive seen them get 70+ with some of the bigger storms. i spent about a year there and went through the whole gammit of weather, from snow, to windstorms, to some of the densest fog ive ever witnissed. fun climate.

  4. Garron near washington square says:

    I liked how Steve Pierce summed up the last month and the very unusual conditions we experienced.

    http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/PastWX_files/2010_10_1_PDX_WettestSept.html

  5. Jacoby in Gresham says:

    I’ll be at Garibaldi on the marina/bay this weekend for fishin’ & crabbin’. Sounds like it will be an interesting time with these storms blowing through. I am excite.

  6. Mostly clear, calm and 49° this morning.

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I would like to see today’s 12z WRF show the Gulf of Alaska trough digging a bit further southeast thus aligning the 500mb flow in a manner that developing low pressure areas south of 40 N swing N-NE inside 130 W. Yeah, wishful thinking I know. You never know….

  8. RobWaltemate says:

    a bit windy here today. Gust to 21 SSE
    7:05 Temp 55.6 DP 51.2 Pressure 29.93 south 17 mph gust. And it looks like rain is coming today from the south for sure.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Oh, I am at 3miles N of Long Beach on the Bay side of the peninsula, but NOT on the bay.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      You may see gusts 40-50mph. I would enjoy that personally.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      I do enjoy a good wind storm down here, but today I get to play with concrete also. I have a few videos on you tube under user name 007 that show what it is like to drive on the beach during the 2007 December storm. While everyone is hidding, I am usually out looking, haha.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Ooops! that should read 007longbeach!

  9. O.C.Paul says:

    Accuweather has lows in the 30’s as of the 14th.

  10. 06Z GFS @ KTTD calling for about 2″ of rain this upcoming weekend.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

  11. Karl Bonner says:

    Most stations around The Dalles are about 5-7 F warmer than they were at the same time last night. However, last night was a bit unusual: temperatures dropped really fast between 6pm and 8pm, but then flatlined. We were in the mid 50s by 9pm but dropped only 10 degrees over the next 10 hours in town and 13 at the airport.

    Could tonight see a similar leveling off of temperatures from now until dawn? That would put our low right near a very boring 50 degrees, too warm for the contrasty feel. Here’s to hoping we get down to the mid 40s again tonight! I’m willing to accept a couple degrees warmer for the lows as long as the morning still feels brisk.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Why do you never respond to people’s responses to your questions?

      The Dalles will be in the 40s tomorrow morning.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Of course I respond Jesse, but I click on the “Reply” to my original post since I don’t see any “reply to reply” buttons.

      Am I just reading in too far or do I detect a little irritation in your comments? The ones about the “famous” palm trees and a “let’s pretend we’re in California” microclimate sound like they have a bit of flippant sarcasm. Again my apologies if this isn’t the case.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Karl, it IS the case and Jesse can’t seem to stop himself either. An increasing amount of people are sick of it too. C’mon, Jesse….

    • pgiorgio says:

      headed for another meltdown

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Not on my part. People generally do not like sarcastic responses, especially when the intent is condescending and disrespectful which is painfully obvious.

    • It’s all how you choose to interpret comments. You can either be mature about it, or you can explode again.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      “You” must be referring to the entire Blog? I would be willing to bet 100$ that every single person here is sick of the overflowing sarcasm and condescending nature of his responses. Anyhow…. 59.2 here

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I figure thats just Jesse. It is somewhat abrasive at times but I’m quite sure it will not change. The sad thing about it IMO is that the irritating factor probably keeps some folks from posting because they don’t want to be put down/corrected/criticized.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Pappoose, that is exactly it.

    • I think Jesse’s comments are humorous. It’s the way you’re interpreting them that’s the issue.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Who’s “You” ?

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Well I’m not too bothered by the remarks as long as he isn’t able to legitimately argue that I was doing something “wrong” to deserve them. I don’t feel that my posts have been the least bit out of step with common-sense blog etiquette, although I guess it’s possible to disagree…

    • ‘Who’s “You” ?’

      That’s whoever you want it to be, Rob. 🙂

  12. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Hey, they’re gettin’ closer…

    55°

  13. Yevpolo1990 says:

    00z looks SUPER wet. This is interesting to see in October, maybe this is the trigger?

  14. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Yakutzk, Russia got it’s first doze of winter weather with a freezing rain event.

  15. Karl Bonner says:

    I’m curious as to what kind of diurnal swings we can expect next week for places outside the Portland heat island. Will we see more of this contrasty pattern I love so much, or will the highs and lows get squished together a bit? What I’d REALLY like to see are two or three nights in the 35-40 range early next week, followed by some 70+ afternoons later in the week or next weekend. How many cold nights does it take in order to set things up for a good fall foliage season? Would two of them make a big difference?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Off topic, but it looks like Lyle, WA made it to 76 today. That’s the closest town I can find to your Catherine Creek “let’s pretend we’re in California” microclimate.

      I’ve actually done a lot of hiking in the Catherine Creek area and haven’t found it to be unusually warm relative to the rest of the Eastern Gorge. It’s a cool continental climate over there from Cascade Locks eastward.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      I suspect the main part of Catherine Creek may not have enough steep hills IMMEDIATELY to the west and north that might make a warm microclimate possible. The bend in the river probably isn’t sharp enough for the 2000′ hills west of there to cut out too terribly much of the west wind.

      But if the river turned further to the south in that area, AND the west mountains were a bit taller yet, AND the slope near Catherine Creek was somewhat steeper (let’s say not quite double the slope), AND the Creek was located about a mile further west so that it lay in the heart of the “wind shadow,” then I bet we would see a statistically warm microclimate there. Actually I’m not sure that wind shadows themselves contribute a great deal to hotter surface temperatures, since there’s no law of physics that says air warms up as its motion slows.

      On the other hand, a steep south hill slope won’t do too much good either if the wind is strong enough to blow the heat away before it gets a chance to accumulate. You need both components in order to create extra heat and keep it from escaping.

      This does, however, make me curious about the lake (name?) immediately to the west of the Creek area. It IS tucked in behind the west hills and also has a much steeper slope along the north, complete with dark basalt rock. I bet that spot does get warmer, at least during morning and midday. If the Sun disappears behind the hills too early in the afternoon, the ‘California effect’ may still be absent.

      So to sum up: you need THREE things. Protection from wind, something to the north that will absorb extra heat, and enough afternoon sunshine.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      3 miles N of Long Beach for Oct 6: High 69.8 Low 45.2 or a difference of 24.6, but I am only about 1000′ from the Willapa Bay and only a mile from the Pacific Ocean, and we had a NNE wind.

  16. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 10/6/2010
    82.6°F High
    46.4°F Low
    ENE 13.6 mph at 4:18p

  17. 10-06-2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:
    High 83 at Tillamook & Forest Grove
    Low 57 at Flynn Prairie

    Coolest:
    High 52 at Crater Lake Rim, Three Creek Meadow & Fish Creek
    Low 25 at Fall Mountain

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Timber Junction (76/32)

  18. O.C.Paul says:

    I’m hopin’ the next strong East wind brings a bone chillin’ Artic invasion screaming up the gorge!
    Come on Fall, is this all ya got?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      +1!

    • Karl Bonner says:

      What time frame are you thinking of for this Arctic blast? The Halloween deep freezes in 3 of the past 10 years are almost certainly a fluke; it’s unusual enough to get this cold this early, but for all three of them to fall at the exact same time is astounding!

      Last October’s proof that it can happen remarkably early in the year, but I feel intuitively that it was also a ridiculous fluke that’s unlikely to be repeated any time soon.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      We may get some teasers of cold/dry air throughout this month, with frosts in outlying areas and maybe even a freeze at PDX towards month’s end, but I think we may have to wait until November for a blast of arctic air with some teeth. It may spell trouble for the famous palm tree farms of the eastern Columbia Gorge.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I wouldn’t expect much until we get into mid-November. So far this year the one trend has been seasons lingering longer than usual with a sudden switch in patterns. Granted, summer never really came around.

      I would anticipate mild and slightly drier than normal weather for October followed by a wetter then usual November with seasonable temps. Later half of November beginning the trend to colder than normal temps.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I would say that Ryan’s forecast seems very sensible to me.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Perhaps I should post a weather prediction for this winter? 🙂

  19. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Interesting to see that PDX ended up passing KHIO today as Hillsboro was running well ahead of PDX a good part of the day. A high of 79 at KHIO.

    Here at my station a high of 77 and a low of 41 today as heating really hit a wall about 3pm.

    Just finished my last couple of jars of pickles. Bumber crop of cucumbers and beans this year! 🙂 Other than digging some potatoes and some late hot peppers and brocoli, the garden is kaput. I pulled up all my tomatoes as they were going moldy. Probably only got about 30% of what I should have.

  20. Dan (Corvallis) says:

    82 degrees in Corvallis today… an absolutely wonderful weather day… a few clouds made for a very pretty sunset. I’m not ready for summer to end yet; but know that all good things must come to an end…

    Mark mentions this winter could be quite a bit like 1988-89. I recall that year Corvallis had 18 inches of snow the first week in February and temps in the teens… in fact, the week before the snow, one day reached close to 70.

    I’m bummed I won’t be able to attend the winter weather meeting… Last year was my first time to attend and it was so much fun!!! I’m hoping it might be recorded and available as a podcast or webcast.

  21. kitchens says:

    This has nothing to do with your blog, sorry, but we must ask someone! Wed night, Oct. 6 at 9pm, we are staring off our back deck in the Helvetia area into the Western sky about 30 degrees above the horizon at a pulsating red, green and white light that appeared stationary, but then did seem to sink into the horizon a bit. Is this something celestial or a satelite perhaps? Would appreciate some input! Thanks.

  22. Tyler says:

    East wind mostly east of 122nd today in Portland and east if 112th in Vancouver…

  23. Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

    I hope the pattern that started in 04-05 repeats itself. Come on goose egg — let’s see lots of wind and rain with no snow and very few inversion days! Is it too early to start the chant? Pineapple! Pineapple! Pineapple!

    But all that can hold off for a while… I’ll take a few dry, clear fall days first… 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Bring on Siberia! Bring on Pineapples! I want the taste of distant lands! I’ve seen enough clear warm fall days.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Good luck with that 2004-05 repeat Jethro. Strong El Nino vs. strong La Nina. Should be VERY similar.

    • Jethro says:

      Never underestimate the power of the pineapple chant. What do your muscular kids have to do with anything, and why do you keep referring to them in Spanish?! I’m sticking with my 0110110 pattern until I have models to ride, and that’s all there is to it! Is there epic snow in la-la-land yet? 😉

  24. ..Here’s an interesting read about PDO, AMO, and La Nina and it’s effect on the Southwest US…
    http://www.physorg.com/news205156605.html

  25. Jesse-Orchards says:

    80 degrees isn’t really that impressive for October sixth.

    Looking over PDX records we have hit 80 at some point in the first half of October in more than 1 in every 3 years.

    In fact, if we HADN’T hit 80 this month, it would have been a nearly unprecedented stretch of not hitting 80 in October at PDX. Today was the first 80 degree day in October since 2004, six years ago. We were due.

    • …..there is no joy in Mudville…. 🙂

    • Pete says:

      So the less often we hit 80 in October the more likely it is that we hit 80 in October? Never thought of it that way.

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, no complaints about how ridiculously HOT and unseasonable this terribly evil October heat wave was today? I’m shocked!

      Sorry, I’m gushing sarcasm all over the interfacebookwebs today… I can’t help myself. 😦

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I leave the babyish whining to you, W7. You do it enough to fill the quota for the whole forum.

      I actually don’t complain that much about the weather, more about some of the people here. 😉

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Like the nitpicky ones?

    • W7ENK says:

      Yeah, okay princess, you just keep telling yourself that… 😉 Hahaha! 😆

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      You kids are so funny.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      My corn stalks blew down! 😦

      The cancelled Ally McBeal! 😦

      I have hemhorroids! 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, 1 for 3 ain’t bad. Well played!

      I like this game, I remember it from Junior High school! Let’s see, I think it went something like this:

      Oh no, the sun is shining again! 😥

      Oh no, it’s over 75 degrees, I’m going to melt! 😥

      Boo hoo, it should never get above 50 degrees in Oregon ever-ever again! 😥

      Waaah, everyone else should move away so I can enjoy my forever-50 degrees in Oregon all by my self! 😥

      For the love of God and all that is holy, move to Alaska. PLEASE! You can post on the blog and brag about how your 50 degree clouds and rain feel so much better than our sweltering, blistering 82 degrees and hazy sunshine. I’ll even help you pack your things!

      Mark, I apologize.
      I swear, I’m done.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      lol

  26. High 74
    Low 41

    A perfect afternoon.

  27. …somehow, at all seems fitting…a meteorologist with a drip…. 🙂

  28. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    If nothing else at least the trend over the last couple years has been more snow fall in general. Versus all those years with 0″ at the start of the chart.

  29. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Mark Nelsen says:
    “October 5, 2010 at 9:41 pm
    By the way Yevster, Julie Grauert wanted to know if a person says “The Ukraine” or just “Ukraine” when referring to the country in a story? Those of us in the studio thought you use “The”.

    But you are the expert, which way is it?”

    Sorry about the late response Mark…but I was always curious anchors say “The Ukraine” because from my previous years in school “the” stands before an object rather than a country. But if you say “from the Ukraine” it sounds more better. I would just go with “Ukraine” because its simple…but there are also some pronunciations that need to be corrected as well, but I wont go into that since it’s a weather blog.

    Reply

    • David B. says:

      Wikipedia says “the Ukraine” is the more traditional use, though using “Ukraine” without any definite article is gaining favor in recent years. In other words, both are acceptable.

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