One More Sunny Day

If you liked today you should really love tomorrow.  When we think of Fall here in the Pacific Northwest I think today and tomorrow are pretty much it.  Of course I’m referring to SUNNY Fall weather, not the sloppy, cloudy, and cool Fall weather that’s a bit more typical.  Highs today close to 70, then the mid 70s coming up for Wednesday as we add in another round (for 1 day) of offshore flow.  Last Thursday a similar pattern, with a warmer atmosphere overhead, got us into the mid 80s.  So expect a perfect day at the Oregon Coast too.

Quite a dramatic change in store for Thursday.  I think we’re hanging out on a limb with our 7 Day forecast.  Thursday forecast;  cloudy and dramatically cooler.  I see other forecasts are talking up the sun still.  But the weather pattern looks VERY similar to last Friday with a southerly surge up the Coastline tomorrow night (20-25 kt. south wind!)  along with stratus surging inland by Thursday morning.  Sound familiar?

Beyond that, Friday should be real quiet as we wait for a strong front to approach from the west.

Wet is the BIG word for the weekend.  We have a visit from a North Pacific Frontal Family, including:  a warm front, a cold front, and two deep low pressure areas making landfall up around the Queen Charlotte Islands.  It looks real juicy, so don’t make any outdoor plans.   Then back to drier weather the early part of next week…

The picture up above is from Tyler Mode.  Lost Lake up by Mt. Hood.  The Vine Maples are changing color up there, but they aren’t yet at my house…the best lowland color is around the 3rd week of October in the Metro Area most years.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

62 Responses to One More Sunny Day

  1. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Mark Nelsen says:
    “October 5, 2010 at 9:41 pm
    By the way Yevster, Julie Grauert wanted to know if a person says “The Ukraine” or just “Ukraine” when referring to the country in a story? Those of us in the studio thought you use “The”.

    But you are the expert, which way is it?”

    Sorry about the late response Mark…but I was always curious anchors say “The Ukraine” because from my previous years in school “the” stands before an object rather than a country. But if you say “from the Ukraine” it sounds more better. I would just go with “Ukraine” because its simple…but there are also some pronunciations that need to be corrected as well, but I wont go into that since it’s a weather blog.

  2. PDX – 80 degrees at 3:53pm

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=PDX&num=48&raw=0

    The 6 year drought of having October 80’s is over. I had a feeling this year it was going to end.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Bring on the October heat waves! Let’s have a repeat of 1988 sometime in the next 2 or 3 years!!!

  3. Runrain says:

    The Weather Channel: a new prime time guy named Chris Warren is just TERRIBLE!!! He must be related to someone at TWC. No other way he is hired or keeps his job there. Totally out of his element.

  4. Warm 78.5° with east winds

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good afternoon.

    75.9 here with breezy easterly winds.

    It is becoming that time of year where the cross section models are used more often and looked at more often.

    Today’s 12z WRF 4km Cross Section/Time-Height model shows what I believe is the first 50kt wind barb of this early Fall season.

    Saturday a fairly strong 50kt southerly wind is shown down to about the 915mb(3,001′) level. As we push further into Fall this will become more frequent especially above 950-900mb.

    • Runrain says:

      I’m headed to the San Juans this weekend, southern exposure on southern part of San Juan Island. Could be quite a blow! I’ll report back.

  6. Holly in Eastmoreland says:

    The Portland Marathon is this weekend on Sunday. Any possibility we will get lucky and have a break from the rain Sunday morning (for those of us volunteers? I think the runners like keeping cool)?

  7. 1pm temps – 77 Aurora .. They are going to break 80.

  8. Timber Junction hit 32 this morning.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=ODT13&num=48&raw=0&dbn=m

    Meanwhile low was 51 on the Fremont Bridge.

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Tornadoes in Arizona. http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp

  10. RobWaltemate says:

    temp 45.7 DP 43.8 pressure 30.08
    Feels like I should be out with the flint lock chasing something with 4 legs…

  11. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    A warm morning at Larch Mountain at 61 degrees. I’m assuming the direction on the anemometer is not working as it is reporting a WSW wind, instead of an east wind.

    Meanwhile, down in Brush Prairie it sits at 39 degrees.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=portland

  12. Klye says:

    To me that sounds like either BS or the complete polar opposite of the Global Warming propegenda.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    47.1 here….

    I notice on the 00z WRF tonight that by Thursday-Friday the Gulf of Alaska trough is carving out nicely, the jet is sagging, and storm development is occurring south of 40 N. Key factors as we move into Fall to watch for in regards to possible south wind events or storms.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_x_slp+///3

  14. Mountain Man says:

    In case anyone missed it, I just noticed Mark is mentioned in cliff mass’s blog post from Sunday.
    http://www.cliffmass.blogspot.com

  15. Midnight Temperatures

    It’s 54 at PDX now but already down to 40 at Yacolt and Timber Junction. Decent chance that one of those two locations hit 32 by dawn. This could be the first freeze of the year on the West side in coldest spots. It was 33 this morning at Timber Junction.

  16. Karl Bonner says:

    Oh crap…(sorry if, by chance, that word’s too vulgar for this blog!) My weekend plans are shot! Now I won’t get to see if Catherine Creek heats way up on a sunny fall day.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Forgot to ask. Do you think the weekend storm will cause west winds to howl in the Gorge, or are we getting to the time of year where they aren’t as strong as they would be if the same pattern happened in the spring? Yesterday had a really heavy wind.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Karl, I would suspect winds within the Gorge to be 37-42mph and east of I-205 30mph or so. However locations such as Three Corner Rock I bet exceed 50-55mph. I see it has already gusting to 37mph there now. Three Corner Rock sits at 3,450′ elevation which certainly helps matters along with its topography in relation to the Gorge.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh sorry I thought you were referring to the east winds tomorrow 😆 I apologize… I’m not much of a West Wind kind of guy, so I am clueless on that.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We see crappy crap occasionally Karl.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’m not sure I would call this weekends system a storm by an stretch of the imagination.

  17. 10-05-2010 BG Lake

    High: 67.6 Low: 42.2*

    *This is the coldest low since June 5th when I hit 40.6 so this was the coldest morning in exactly 4 months.

  18. W7ENK says:

    Hey, lookit that… Sunspot activity dropped back to ZERO again! Go figure, another false start to cycle 24.

    http://spaceweather.com/images2010/06oct10/hmi4096_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=akhl9n1mk3u22qhm628db2d754

    Gonna be a chilly winter in the Northern Hemisphere!!! 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      In case the image updates before you get a chance to see it…

    • W7ENK says:

      Interesting info relating to this.

      Maunder Minimum

      Dalton Minimum

      Spörer Minimum

      How do I get this next prolonged minimum named after me, I wonder? 😆 j/k

    • Gidrons says:

      Emissions from the sun are down, but I believe it will take a while for the lower emissions to have an impact.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, considering emissions have been down for well over 4 years now – Solar minimum should have been in 2006. We should be approaching maximum anytime between now and another 18 – 24 months…

      http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/


      In 2008, the sun set the following records:
      A 50-year low in solar wind pressure
      A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”
      A 55-year low in solar radio emissions

      It’s almost 2011, and this continues.

      http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/18oct_solarminimum/

      October 18, 2004 – “This is a sign … that the solar minimum is coming, and it’s coming sooner than we expected.

      Solar activity intensifies rapidly after solar minimum. In recent cycles, Solar Max has followed Solar Min by just 4 years. Do the math: 2006 + 4 years = 2010.

      This time, not so much.

    • Gidrons says:

      I’ve been watching the lack of sunspots for 3 years, but not expecting the next ice age to start this year. Kind of similar to turning down your furnace’s thermostat five degrees…the temperature in the room doesn’t instantly drop 5 degrees but cools over time. I think I remember one of the more prominent posters here predict the impact will be significant by 2014.

    • W7ENK says:

      Of course the effects would be cumulative… well, whatever the opposite of ‘cumulative’ would be… subtractive? Something like that.

      At any rate, I think perhaps the Earth (the Northern Hemisphere at least) has already seen the effects of this possible prolonged minimum in the form of harsher winters over the last couple of years. This doesn’t necessarily account for the blazing hot summer just experienced in the Northern Hemisphere, however. Nor does it account for the 12 months of Autumn-like neutral weather we’ve just had here in the PNW, but…

      From what I understand, and I am by NO means any good at this, there seem to be 4 main factors at play here: With the oscillations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shifting Negative = COOLER, the North Pacific Index (NPI) shifting Positive = COOLER, the Niños or Southern Oscillation (ENSO) = a deep COLD La Niña, and this elongated Solar minimum, things might just be aligning to give us a cRaZy winter or three here in the PNW. Maybe more?

      Granted, La Niña doesn’t guarantee cold and snow for the PNW, but in conjunction with everything else, particularly this elongated Solar MIN?

      Or, I could be dead wrong, but it will be interesting to watch how everything plays out. Sure has me excited, apparently! 😆

  19. Oct 5 2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:
    High 77 at Blalock
    Low 54 at Bully Creek Res.

    Coolest:
    High 40 at Mt Howard
    Low 18 at Deschutes Portable

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    Deschutes Portable (61/18)
    Prineville (71/28)

  20. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 10/5/2010
    70.3°F High
    48.6°F Low
    NW 11.0 mph at 6:14p

  21. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Me thinks the rain will mostly be in WA/Vanc Is/BC Coast…EUG gets less than .25 in the next five days

  22. ashley watson says:

    Mark,

    I would love to know what you think about the guys on the western usa weather fourm. I think you should take a 1/2 to 1 hour and read there thoughts on this upcoming winter and why they think the way they do and let me know if you think they are crazy nuts or is there any validity to what they say. Also they have some posts about it being the coldest winter in 1,000 years in europe. what do you think about that???

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Or you could just attend the What Will Winter Be Like Summit and get the real scoop from folks that do this for a living. 😉

    • Brian in Bellingham says:

      Ashley, Western, like any other forum (I don’t include this one, since only Mark can make posts, we can only reply), it has a wide variety of members with a wide variety of weather knowledge. There are at least 6 pro mets who post there, and a lot of amateurs too. There certainly is a lot of validity to predicting a cooler and snowier winter. Literally every pro met and weather agency from the government is predicting this. I have yet to see a pro met that isn’t predicting this. Of course, there are no gaurentees, and a colder, snowier winter doesn’t necessarily mean historic, though we can hope.

      The post about the coldest winter in 1000 years is not a Western post, it was a link to a forecast by some Polish weather agency, and is discounted by most people, though it has been widely circulated aroune the internet.

    • W7ENK says:

      I don’t know about that… I have a friend in Estonia who just recently told me he heard that many of Europe’s “professional atmospheric scientists” are saying this winter could be worse than last, and last winter was the worst they’d had in over 50 years.

      Now, 1,000 years? We’ll have to see about that.

  23. Christiana in Forest Grove says:

    I have outdoor plans for the first part of Saturday. How wet will it be?

  24. Heisson Rob says:

    It was a gorgeous day today, and looking forward to tomorrow to be outside. If you have to be digging in a drain line, at least the weather’s cooperating.

    BTW, when does Tyler go on retainer?

  25. Tomorrow will be a great day to go for a drive….

    54°..Slight east wind drift

  26. W7ENK says:

    East winds tomorrow through the Gorge? Or will it be more downslope?

    The wind is already switching from the NE here tonight, albeit very light.

  27. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    “The Old Country”????

    Who knows…

    I’m ready for a few weeks of this weather, but I guess one more day will have to work for now.

  28. Mark Nelsen says:

    By the way Yevster, Julie Grauert wanted to know if a person says “The Ukraine” or just “Ukraine” when referring to the country in a story? Those of us in the studio thought you use “The”.

    But you are the expert, which way is it?

  29. Mark Nelsen says:

    Where are we going?

  30. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Here we go….

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