Feels Like October Now

Between having the coldest low temperature since early June here in Portland and the coolest high temperature since June 20th…it really felt like October today.  I suppose the mostly cloudy skies and mid-afternoon line of showers moving through added to the mood too.

Not a whole lot of exciting weather in general the next 7+ days.  Not a big surprise considering September and October probably have the deadest weather of the year.  Sure, July and August have little or no frontal action, but at least you get some extreme heat waves.  But this time of year?  Unless we get a (extremely rare) October windstorm, there are no extreme events generally during this period.  No snow, strong wind, flooding rains, extreme cold or heat.  Dead, dead, dead.  I know some people love this time of year due to the anticipation of the stormy season starting around early November.  But I prefer to just assume it’ll be dead until Halloween.  That way I don’t get bored waiting.

We do have a much brighter couple of days on the way for tomorrow and Wednesday…should be nice with plenty of sunshine after chilly mornings.  We get light offshore flow later tomorrow through Wednesday afternoon, keeping the low clouds and fog to a minimum.

I made a change to the 7 Day forecast this evening for Thursday.  It appears that the upper-level low presently sitting down in California will “kick out” to the northeast at that time, spinning plenty of moisture up through eastern Oregon.  Our 00z RPM and the 00z WRF-GFS both show a lot of cloud cover and maybe even a few showers west of the Cascades from that.  After the Friday Forecast Disaster (sunny and 79 vs. cloudy and 67 sound familiar?), it’s much safer to go with the cooler and cloud option.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

61 Responses to Feels Like October Now

  1. W7ENK says:

    Gotta love those PNW sunsets! 😀

  2. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Colors at Lost Lake are a couple weeks from peak still it seems…

    http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Other/Lost-Lake-Ocotber-4th-2010/14066321_Wdx7c

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      The very best part of fall! Great photos. Vine maples against the firs! We were over on the Alsea last weekend and the Big Leaf Maples are dropping leaves early before really hitting their peak. Must be weather caused fungus or something.

    • W7ENK says:

      Great photos! 🙂

  3. Garron near washington square says:

    I wonder if HIO is going to continue to drop like a rock tonight? The temp has dumped 9 degrees in the last hour. Depending on if the winds continue to do the diurnal die down thing tonight, might we see a light frost out there tonight?

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I work in nearby Aloha, and if there is any chance for a pocket frost, that’s where it’ll typically happen. Will see when I get to work at 2AM in the morning….YUCK!!! I hate inventory hours.

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      51.6 DP 46 here currently

      I don’t think it’s too likely, but skies are clear and we are dropping ~3-3.5 degrees an hour right now at my station. DP at 46 is are pretty high right now. Still wouldn’t surprise me to see some upper 30’s by daylight. Winds should hold off overnight here which is typical.

  4. W7ENK says:

    Strange how just a couple weeks makes such a big difference. Why does 70F and 35% RH feel warm and muggy at the end of September, but 70F and 35% RH feels chilly in October? It’s weird! Really, what’s different???

  5. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    We returned Sunday night from 10 days of camping at LaPine. Such beautiful weather… sunny and mostly 80’s!! On the drive home Sunday it was cloudy and foggy coming back over Santiam Pass and the trees have started to turn their bright fall colors… what a shock to the system to suddenly enter Fall.

    I love Fall weather, so making the transition wearing a sweatshirt with shorts today. 😉 Glad to be connected back in (intermittent web access) and looking forward to discussing weather with you folks again. 🙂

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Welcome back! Sounds like you guys hit the camp spot at just the right week! Perfect weather.

  6. Garron near washington square says:

    Yep! Mark called it. October’s the weather man’s long nap. NOAA just calling for a few weak ans dissapating fronts, brushing by to the north by later in the week. Otherwise…zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Speak for yourself, I love this time of year.

      Also, as has been discussed, some of our most powerful wind storms on record have happened around this time.

      It looks like it could start getting pretty active in a week or so, too.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I love days like this too this time of year. But, it still looks fairly slow weather wise to me. Most storms just clipping us to the north for the next 10 days or so, but that can change in a hurry this time of year too.

  7. W7ENK says:

    The sun is cool and crisp.
    Soon, the leaves will change color
    and fall from the trees.

    • fallen leaf debris
      drain clogging back breaking joy
      plastic stays green all year

    • i should be ashamed of myself, 6 syllables in that last line….

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha, no worries.
      Accidents happen, it’s fine.
      Don’t trouble yourself.
      😉

    • W7ENK says:

      See, I did it too… There were only supposed to be 2 ‘Ha’s

      Oops! 😳

    • Runrain says:

      Is there a standard punishment for haiku faux pas? I think BoringLarry has earned a mulligan or two in that regard.

      With some light east winds surfacing here, perhaps it would be a good time to head up to Crown Point for a training session. This is suggested for all those planning on some wind-leaning later this winter. Planned activities could be practicing the crawl from the parking lot to the Vista House, learning the proper parking angles to prevent passenger door detachment, and training on maneuvering and bracing along the brass stairway railing. Proper Christmas tree release technique, along with launch location determination could also be offered.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! You’re absolutely correct Runrain. Should include a session on perfecting the manual skills necessary to brace a fellow weather nerd who is attempting to get a accurate wind speed reading. Incorrect performance of this activity could result in serious bodily damage.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    Looking at the gfs 16 day meteogram out about day 12 or 13 it shows a thickness for PDX of 535. IF this were to be correct we would be looking at a lot of rain. Snow down to 3,000 feet or maybe a bit lower. Low enough to start piling up snow in the ski resorts. Sking by Halloween anybody?

  9. Coldest morning of the fall in Central Oregon this morning. Here are a few numbers

    Deschutes Portable 18 degrees
    Crescent 20 degrees
    Mazama 21 degrees
    La Pine 22 degrees

  10. k5mitch says:

    headed to the coast for a well deserved break

  11. RobWaltemate says:

    Taking a stab at what we will get for the 10-11 season:

    Oct 8″ of rain, temps between 40 and upper 50s, one thunder storm, no big wind storms, and 5 days in a row without any clouds.

    November two wind storms with winds over 70 on the the beach, no snow but lots of 38 and rain, and maybe 15 inches of rain down here and highs in the 40s. Mostly cloudy the whole month and at least two weeks straigh with some kind of rain.

    December: Jet stream splits around us, and starting out with rain and wind, but two weeks of clear skys and cool temps just below 30, but ending before Christmass where we will get lots of rain and a high wind storm, something close to 100mph on the beach. Total rain 15″

    Jan. Rain of 20″, low temps in the upper 30s, no days without clouds, no wind storms over 50 mph.

    Feb: cold temps down to the 20s, last two week with rain 10″ and one good wind storm over 70 mph.

    March: 9″ of rain, temps 40-50. Lot of SW wind and rain off and on. No large wind storms.

    Well how is that for a giant guess! It was fun though.

    • W7ENK says:

      Better start building an Arc… that’s damn near 80 inches of rain in a small handful of months! Even for the coast, that’s a LOT of rain!!!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Here’s my winter forecast for Sle

      Max Min Precip Snowfall

      Nov 48.9 39.1 11.22 1.1

      Dec 43.5 29.6 9.68 4.9

      Jan 40.3 23.2 6.50 11.8

      Feb 44.2 27.1 5.83 3.9

      Mar 49.1 31.9 3.60 1.2

      I’m sure you can throw in a flood and a windstorm someplace this Winter as well. Winter looks to be wild this year. Just how wild we’ll have to wait a few months to see.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      That’d be pretty wild Dan! I think I’ll try and come up with an SLE forecast and post it asap

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That is also a pretty high number of wind storm events… Most years we are lucky to get 1 or 2 notable wind events (sustained over 25 gusts greater than 35).

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Our average here on the Long Beach Peninsula is over 60, and its just a guess, but fun anyway. I printed it out so I can see how good I didn’t do, LOL

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    The morning ride in is starting feel quite chilly. Had to put a jacket and gloves on for the first time this fall.

    Both the 00z and this morning’s 06z look much wetter than the previous runs. The last two-three runs are trending wetter. Is wet fall weather about to return with a vengence? Stay tuned!

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

  13. 10/4/2010
    High 59°
    Low 47°
    No rain

  14. Karl Bonner says:

    All I care about for this winter is staying above 10F in The Dalles so that the windmill palm planted on a hill at the far east end of town may survive. For most of my life I’ve wanted to see if it’s possible to get a palm to grow here!

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Just put lots of Chirstmas lights on it at night to keep it warm. Wrap the lights around the base up to the top so the stump is lit.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I spend a lot of time watching trees grow.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      My next door neighbor has a nice palm on the s side of their house. I also have a neighbor that has some kind of banana tree!

    • W7ENK says:

      Those Windmill Palms are much heartier than you think. There’s one about a half mile from me that’s been there at least 20 years… since I first noticed it, anyway. It’s survived the winters of 2004, 2008, the single digits of Dec 2009, so I suspect it could take a bit more.

      On the other hand, Clackamas Town Center used to have a bunch of small potted palms in the newly remodeled outdoor part (by the Ram) until their first winter (of 2008) killed the majority of them off. Now the pots sit either empty, or have some strange leafy-bambooy thingie in them…

      Silly Californian landscapers! 😆

      If you want a real challenge, try growing an avocado!

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Try planting a Chusan Palm AKA Trachycarpus Fortunei. This Chinese fan Palm is the hardiest Palm available. It is hardy to 0 degrees F. I see many of these all around the Salem/Keizer area. They all survived last winter just fine.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’d like a Royal Palm, those are your classic ‘Tropical Island’ looking coconut palm trees, and I think they’re beautiful. However, I doubt they’re very hearty. One good freeze and they’ll probably die, which is why I’ve never seen any this far North.

      Since we’re on the subject of freezing weather and horticulture; We’re dropping below 38F around the area overnight now, so it’s probably getting close to time to think about bringing my avocado inside (or something) for the winter? My ceilings are only 7’6″… she’s over 10′ now. Hmm…

  15. Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

    Technically we’ve already entered south windstorm season. October 2, 1967 is our strongest windstorm since 1962. Something about those early season storms….

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I think that is due to strong tropical energy/moisture as well as warmer storms = better mixing.

    • Three of our biggest windstorms (In the northern Willamette Valley), have occured outside of the normal winter season..October of ’62, March of ’63, and October of ’67.

      The Columbus Day storm was originally tropical… (Typhoon Freda)..

      A chilly 49° currently..

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      But notice almost all of those south windstorms in October occurred within a few years of each other? Very strange. Wolf Read talks about that on his website.
      Although 3 years ago we had a decent one in mid-October.

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      Yes, the one three years ago did a lot of damage to the maples on my coast range property. Leaves and high winds do not work well together.

  16. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    OK Mark, while we wait for real weather, how bout we get some good betting going on?! Winter forecasts!! Oh I know some of us have posted our futuristic prognostications,but let’s get some more. It’s time to hear from everybody on their forecasts for the “Mother of All Winters”!!

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      Does Mark have any aliases under which he could post a more specific winter forecast?

    • RobWaltemate says:

      Do you mean Mark might have an “Evil” twin out there somewhere or a Mini Mark, Bluhahahahaha. Maybe that is where the lipstick came from?

  17. W7ENK says:

    *Repost*

    Only 8 days until the 48th anniversary of one of the PNW’s most epic wind events of modern times… FWIW.

    [Milwaukie] 10/4/2010
    61.9°F High
    48.0°F Low
    WNW 9.6 mph at 2:45p
    Trace

  18. W7ENK says:

    Indeed, it does!

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