Thursday should be the warmest day in 3+ weeks here in the Metro area with temps at least in the mid 80s, possibly upper 80s in a few spots too. The 00z Salem sounding was up to +18 deg. C. at 850mb and models forecast a +20 to +22 by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Then we add a good 4-5 millibars easterly gradient (it was flat today) through the Columbia Gorge and over the Cascades. That should give us far better surface heating, all the way out to the North Coast. We’re going for 84 degrees at PDX, but I think anywhere between 83 and 88 is possible. 88 IS the record for the day at PDX too. A nice, warm (and dry!) end to a strange month.
So what is a “Water Year”?
Quite a foreign concept to any normal person, but let me attempt to explain…
Here in the Pacific Northwest a vast majority of our yearly precipitation (rain and snow) comes from Pacific frontal systems that move in regularly during the cool season; that would be October through March. In other parts of the country (especially east of the Rockies) it’s the opposite; most rainfall comes from summertime thunderstorms or active frontal boundaries in the warm season. Generally winters are the dry season in those areas.
So if you want to measure how much precipitation fell each “rainy season” , it doesn’t do you much good to measure the calendar year rainfall. It makes more sense to start the “Water Year” at the beginning of each rainy season. Most meteorologists in our area use October 1st as the start of that year. Sometimes September 1st is used instead.
Tomorrow will be the end of the 2009-2010 water year. Now this year is a bit strange because we had such a huge amount of rain in May and June, plus September to a lesser extent. It was actually a pretty dry “wet season” due to the El Nino conditions last winter, but our water year number was salvaged by the wet Spring and early Fall. So we ended up slightly above average. Most of the Pacific Northwest was above average as well. Notice that only 3 of the last 10 years have been at/above average…seems as if the first decade of the century has been a bit drier than normal.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
September’s over, the water year’s over… FWIW
[Milwaukie]
September 2010 ~ Rainfall Summary
Date Daily”
09/01 0.04
09/02 –
09/03 –
09/04 –
09/05 –
09/06 –
09/07 0.54
09/08 Trace
09/09 –
09/10 –
09/11 –
09/12 –
09/13 –
09/14 Trace
09/15 0.12
09/16 0.25
09/17 0.21
09/18 0.70
09/19 0.08
09/20 0.04
09/21 –
09/22 –
09/23 0.05
09/24 –
09/25 –
09/26 0.08
09/27 –
09/28 –
09/29 –
09/30 –
Monthly Total: 2.11″
[Milwaukie] 9/30/2010
87.6°F High
53.2°F Low
NE 14.5 mph at 2:52p
Crazy thermal trend at Red Mound last 24 hours
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=RMFO3&table=1&banner=off
Low of 82 last night, then temp dropped to 68 at 10:30am this morning, then it jumped up to 86 again at 2:30pm, and then finally plummeted to 60 at 5:20pm with strong south winds 23mph. Now its foggy and 55 at 9:30pm with gusty south winds at 23mph. What a roller coaster.
A wide variety of temps and dewpoints right now.
68/60 here, while some areas are still in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 50s.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=portland
There’s some really nice high altitiude cumulus around town right now. Maybe some true cirrocumulus. Sunset may be quite nice here in a few minutes
They’re not in the right spot for a good sunset in OC. 😦
Yeah, they were moving south to north pretty quickly. Not here long.
Sorry for double posting. It said “Your posting comments too quickly” on my very FIRST and I mean F-I-R-ST post. 😦
Oooh! Anyone headed to Gliese 581g? I need a ride.
‘100 percent’ chance for life on newly found planet?
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/30/100-percent-chance-for-life-on-newly-found-planet/
I’ve had enough of this whole “Earth” thing… 😛
How’s the weather doing there this time of year? I’ve got a whole bunch of vacation time saved up and a bunch of frequent flyer miles to use, so ready when you are…lol.
They better have lots and LOTS of snowy places!
It better have lots and LOTS of snowy places!
I guess the planet’s orbit is tidally locked, meaning it’s rotational period and it’s orbital period are equal. This means that one side is ALWAYS facing the star, and the other side is always facing away (like the Moon). So, I’d imagine there’s a TON of snow and ice on the “dark side”. 🙂
‘Tis a beautiful day in Clackamas, light east winds indicated by the way my Doug Flag is pointed due west. No idea on the temperature, I’ll have to check that when I get home, but I’m guessing it’s probably about 83-ish right now.
Lovin’ this weather! 🙂
I’ve got a 75F here and sunny with south east winds.
Figured we are close enough to the season for this one :):
This video always makes me do this:
Josh, yes the killer is back. Were not quite close enough for that yet though I dont think. Give it two more months coaster
Hahaah! Preview of coming attractions?
Gah! This video always p!$$3$ me off… That driver kept punching the gas, all that damage was totally deliberate. I hope they lost their licence! >_<
Honestly, had he hit my car, I'd probably own his house by now. What a dumb@$$.
I’d love to see that video in an insurance commercial. I think people might actually watch this one…
first to clear out yesterday, last one today. so much for sunshine and 80+ degrees today here in Longview…
12z GFS
Has 0 degree 850mb temps early next week, and < 540dm thicknesses for the first time this fall. Looks like fall Sunday through Tuesday. The extended long term has no temps above 70.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
Only 63.2 here at 11:45am and yet its 80 at Larch Mtn.
Hope the easterlies break through soon here.
What a nice reprieve we have early this fall. I thought we were going to have an early start to the rainy season. Now even going to the first half of October the weather pattern looks reasonably nice. I’m not in a giant hurry for this nasty La~Nina Winter to get here. The cold rain and snow will be here before long so I’m going to enjoy the nice weather while it’s here. By the way our first reasonable chance at snow down low is only about 5 weeks away. Let’s see what happens this year. See you at OMSI for the Winter weather forum on 10-16-2010 at 10 AM.
…i think i have a problem…i was walking thru a field of perfectly green tomatoes when…i don’t know, they must be rotting or something, because there’s this odd red color starting to show up…..
Isn’t that wonderful!! 😉 Got my first decent pick of cherry tomatoes yesterday.
I’m getting that too, now, mostly on the larger tomatoes. The cherry tomatoes are doing ok though.
Yeah, and that funny yellow orb…in the sky? Every time it hits my garden for a day or two, the same thing seems to be happening to me too…IT MUST BE A SUNSPIRACY???? Me so happy toooooo! Ripe veggies better late than thrown away. Note to Santa….GREENHOUSE PLEASE.
the bad news it’s about done. over. fini!
I’ve got tomatoes rotting before the turn red.BUT! My broccoli looks great and the brussel sprouts are coming along just fine.
3 Mile N Long Beach WA
6:30 low out side temp since mid night 48.0 DP 46.4
pressure has dropped about 0.1 since 00:00 to now
and what little breaze we got was NE, which I think is a bit odd for this time of year.
Glad I did not drive up to fly my kites then huh? 🙂
Offshore gradients have increased nicely over the past 6 hours.
Pressure Gradients
As of 6 AM
PDX-DLS: -3.0mb
TTD-DLS: -3.7mb
OTH-GEG: -7.2mb
Easterlies should develop at Troutdale/Gresham before 7:00 AM.
Red Mound, OR ….As of 5:30am has an overnight low of 82 degrees.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=RMFO3&table=1&banner=off
Wind shifted to southerly at Red Mound around 8am
Now its down to 70 degrees at 9:21am
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=RMFO3&table=1&banner=off
Three Corner Rock getting blasted now with East winds
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=WRFW1&table=1&banner=off
I posted a question in the “Amazing Dewpoints” thread that never got answered in any way. It’s not usually a good idea to post it a second time, so I’d like to draw attention to the first time. It’s the newest of the comments. I’d appreciate if someone took a look at that post and provide whatever knowledge they may have.
Karl, I just read your post. Definitely logical and reasonable to suggest we could have been warmer perhaps upper 80’s? ….
Anyone see tonight’s 00z EURO? 😀
What where and how should I look?
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Looks grand! Finally get some cool temps and moisture thrown our way with a fun little low hanging out around Vancouver Island. 🙂
I just crunched all the precip numbers for BG Lake. Here are my water year totals from Oct 1 2006 to Present.
Water Year = Oct 1 to Sept 30 each year
2006-07—> 60.58″
2007-08—> 49.29″
2008-09—> 44.42″
2009-10—> 52.43″
4 Year Average —> 51.68″
Interesting pattern. Also notice that the overall trend is gradually leaning toward wetter… I wonder if that will continue over the next decade?
[Milwaukie] 9/29/2010
76.7°F High
58.5°F Low
NE 8.3 mph at 3:12p
Curry County Map at 11:45pm
I have circled 2 stations which are at 86 degrees right now on this map.
Chetco effect.
No Duh Mark. I have been telling that on this blog for quite some time that we have had the false hope “weather curse”.
This will be our more than overdue 40 inch water year. Calling it now.
🙂
Interesting to see every 4 years since 2002, just going off that graph, have been average or above. Interesting little pattern there.
And nice little red balls for the data points too eh?
seems like a defined pattern on that graph. Odd.
It does, doesn’t it? I’m sure the rises and drops correlate heavily with La Nina/El Ninos years too. Maybe someone can research that? Ummm Justin, Steve P., Jesse?
I should calculate the standard devation before we get to excited about it, or at least the RMS. But to ignore it would be wrong too. How about a graph that goes back further?
Yes, I do realize how unnecessary that was.
Mark, thanks for the update.
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N-I-N-T-H!