Tough Weekend Forecast

Here’s the forecast from our RPM model for this weekend…very light rainfall across Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington.  There has been quite a battle between the models over whether a weakening cold front will move down into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday or stay offshore.  The ECMWF was first earlier in the week showing the front holding together for a rainy day Sunday.  The GFS finally decided to come on board last night and still looks exactly the same 24 hours later.  We’ve had at least a chance of showers in the 7 Day forecast each evening here at FOX12, so hopefully our viewers have the message that Saturday looks great and Sunday is risky for outdoor activities.

So I was REALLY annoyed when I heard a local meterologist’s forecast on a radio station today (not KPAM, our news partner) saying that we had a “warm and sunny weekend” on the way.  Ughh!  I hate disappointing the public…I can already hear people on Monday saying “it was supposed to be sunny and warm all weekend!”.  At best we’ll have lots of clouds Sunday and dry weather.  At worst it’ll rain all morning.  Most likely somewhere inbetween.

Beyond that…next week looks great!  In general a warm and dry end to September.  As of now I sure don’t see any “hot” weather.  I would consider “hot” the last few days of September to be 85+ degrees. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

161 Responses to Tough Weekend Forecast

  1. Kyle says:

    61F for the low and the dewpoint is 61F :p

    Enjoy your sticky weather Brain you love so much while the rest of us suffer. 🙂

  2. Garron near washington square says:

    Still in the low 90’s in and around LA. Thought this obs from the hills NW of LA were interesting. Winds from the WSW @ 30+, gusts to 105….lol. Humidity all through out LA basin and through Las Vegas was in the very low simgle digits the last few days.

  3. Computer says:

    :Ding:

    ‘Warp core breach intiment’

    ‘Blog destruction in 1 minute and 30 seconds unless resolved’

    This is Kyle alpha 001 please issue shuttle craft over-ride and begin evacuation procedure.

  4. Kyle says:

    Correction: Where is the source of this airmass bloggers?

  5. Kyle says:

    It’s 65F here with a 61F dewpoint!

    What is the source of this airmass bloggers?

  6. ***Record warm low likely broken tomorrow morning at PDX

    At 9pm, its 66 degrees with at DP of 63 with OVC at PDX.

    Tomorrow mornings record low is 60 set in 1976.

    If we keep the cloud cover tonight, we are very likely to break this current record by a couple of degrees.

    So at this point we have good potential for 3 consecutive record breaking warm nights in a row at Portland Airport. The (26th, 27th & 28th) of September.

    • Here are the all-time 3 warmest September overnight lows ever recorded at Portland Airport. It has been 64 on 3 different occasions in the past.

      09-13-2009 Low 64
      09-14-2000 Low 64
      09-08-1984 Low 64

  7. 09-26-2010 at PDX (Record broken for warm night last night)

    This mornings Low temperature of 61 degrees at PDX broke the old record of 59 set in 2003.

  8. 00Z GFS calling for a record shattering warm night tomorrow night. A low of 64 projected with a DP of 63 at PDX.

    The record warm low for the 28th is currently 60 set in 1994. That current projection beats that by 4 degrees.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KPDX

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      It’s so warm and moist here tonite the slugs are doing the Samba on my deck!

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      “back you lousy gastropods, back, or I’m going for the salt shaker!!”

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      “Captain, we’re under attack! There’s some kind of slimy coating covering the ship! We’re losing contact with command, it’s as if something is eating our communications antanae. Scotty, report! Scotty………..!!!

    • Kyle says:

      Captain Boydo:

      The warp plasma fluid needs to be dumped to prevent a core breach but the manual overdrive switch/lever/button won’t release!

      At this rate if I can’t stop this I think she’s gonna blow!

      dn’t panic yet:
      I am going to try shutting down the power relays one at a time Boydo before this whole blog goes kablooie!

  9. 09-26-2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:

    High 91 at Alkali Flat
    Low 64 at Little McCoy Creek

    Coolest:

    High: 51 at Timberline Lodge 7K (Palmer Lift)
    Low: 26 at Klamath NWR

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    Lakeview Airport (84/28)

    Max Precip: 1.25″ at Cape Meares

  10. 09-26-2010 BG Lake Stats

    High: 64.7 Low: 56.5 Rain: 0.39″

    September total rain: 3.88″

    Certainly a disappointing Sunday at this latitude. Just like most of the spring and summer, anywhere north of 45N latitude west of the cascades is getting much more clouds and rain than normal and today was just another example of this.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    This has been one humid September for you guys.

  12. 18Z GFS – An amazing summer-like forecast of 8 days above 80 degrees out of next 15. I will only believe it when I see it.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Another warm night. Was traveling around today and was surprised every time I walked out of a building and it almost seemed warmer outside than inside. It looked cold outside with all the drizzle/light rain. Had to run the AC in the car to stay cool in the rain.

  14. AdamInAumsville says:

    Very warm and humid tonight. Temp is 68F with dewpoint of 63F in Salem at 9 PM. Muggy!

  15. High 72
    Low 54
    Barely a trace of rain this morning.

  16. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    All I can say with the model runs today is… REALLY!? Someone tell the weather it is fall!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I’m surprised Brian isn’t posting ten links to the 18Z GFS model output, lol.

    • I was gone for several hours and just looked at the 18z. Holy smokes, that is warm.
      I am sure it is just playing tricks on me again and it will realistically turn out to be more of a dirty ridging situation than is portrayed by the GFS.

  17. Had one brief light shower around 9 this morning. Otherwise a dry day. Currently cloudy and 72.

  18. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Pics from Rainier…

    http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Mount-Rainier/13933300_UkdG3#1023087281_uShng

    I would say the fall colors are a bit behind, as last year they were beautiful around the 20th of the month. It was nice to see the seasons first snow while I was up there though! Looks like it stuck down to about 6,500′, with snow falling down to 5,400′. Other than that it poured rain at times, along with sleet and wind.

    The mountain was hiding for the first two days, but finally made an appearance. I woke up at 5 on Friday morning and the mountain was out along with the full moon, allowing for some night shots.

    There are a few vids as well, wildlife, clouds and snow.

    • Dave in SW PDX (300') says:

      Beautiful photos, Tyler. I especially like the pre-dawn photos with the stars in the background. Makes me want to plan my own trip to Mt. Rainier…

    • chiefWright says:

      Nice pix, Tyler. My sense is we’re not going to get good colors this year, unless it gets a lot colder.

  19. It went the whole summer and never reached above 95 at Downtown Los Angeles. Now it is fall and yesterday they reached 98. Today at 12:47pm it was already 103 degrees there. Some areas are reaching 110 today in the LA basin.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=lox&sid=KCQT&num=72

  20. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Reporting from Eugene: it is currently 76.4F with dewpoint of 63F…muggy

  21. Some heavy rainfall totals from Olympic Peninsula overnight:

    3.07″ at CRN Site near Quinault 4NE
    2.94″ at Owl Mtn
    2.49″ at Quillayute
    2.06″ at Black Knob

  22. Big difference in rainfall totals this morning

    0.04″ at PDX
    0.37″ at BG Lake

    BG Lake now at 3.86″ for September

  23. …sorry for the non weather here, but if you’re a history freak you might appreciate this…
    …it’s a quiet sunday morning, no sounds of modern humanity at all…when all of a sudden cannon fire erupts…..followed by rifle fire……interesting little taste of what so many people lived thru and died for were hearing 150 years ago….

  24. laurie(sylvan) says:

    I wonder is the public has a tendency to lump all those “damn weathermen” together when forecasts they hear don’t pan out. There’ often some divergence in forecasts, so someone is always going to be mad, depending on the wrong person they happened to listen to, even if you got it right.

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