Tough Weekend Forecast

September 23, 2010

Here’s the forecast from our RPM model for this weekend…very light rainfall across Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington.  There has been quite a battle between the models over whether a weakening cold front will move down into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday or stay offshore.  The ECMWF was first earlier in the week showing the front holding together for a rainy day Sunday.  The GFS finally decided to come on board last night and still looks exactly the same 24 hours later.  We’ve had at least a chance of showers in the 7 Day forecast each evening here at FOX12, so hopefully our viewers have the message that Saturday looks great and Sunday is risky for outdoor activities.

So I was REALLY annoyed when I heard a local meterologist’s forecast on a radio station today (not KPAM, our news partner) saying that we had a “warm and sunny weekend” on the way.  Ughh!  I hate disappointing the public…I can already hear people on Monday saying “it was supposed to be sunny and warm all weekend!”.  At best we’ll have lots of clouds Sunday and dry weather.  At worst it’ll rain all morning.  Most likely somewhere inbetween.

Beyond that…next week looks great!  In general a warm and dry end to September.  As of now I sure don’t see any “hot” weather.  I would consider “hot” the last few days of September to be 85+ degrees. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Winter Weather Meeting In 3 Weeks

September 23, 2010

The yearly winter weather meeting is coming up in just 3 weeks!  Make sure you are there for the Oregon AMS meeting.  It’s always the highest-attended of the year…here is the press release, which you can also find on their website:

 Oregon Chapter American Meteorological Society


 Regional Weather Experts Will Once Again Descend On Portland To Predict This Coming Winter’s Weather!

 (Portland, Oregon – September 23rd 2010) – La Nina is back! The Portland International Airport recorded its wettest June in history this year, along with its coldest summer in 17 years. Records fell all across the Pacific Northwest this spring and summer. Is our record setting weather expected to continue into the winter months? What about our chances for low elevation snow?

 The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society is proud to announce the 18th annual “What Will the Winter Be Like” forecast meeting. This year’s event will once again be held at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), located at 1945 S.E. Water Avenue in Portland on Saturday, October 16th 2010 from 10 am to 12 noon. The meeting will be free, open to the general public and will also include our annual “snowflake contest” where attendees can take a guess at when the first snow will fall in Portland this coming winter. Prizes will be awarded to the winner(s) after the first snowfall. Last year’s meeting drew a record crowd of nearly 300 people from all across Oregon and Washington. In keeping with tradition, regional news media is again encouraged to advance and cover this informative event. This year’s guest speakers will include:

 Review of last winter (2009/2010)

Mark Nelsen, KPTV Fox-12 Chief Meteorologist

 Forecasts for this coming winter (2010/2011)

Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland

George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon

Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Agriculture Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon

Kyle Dittmer, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Hydrologist-Meteorologist, Portland

Steve Pierce
Vice President, Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Phone: 503-504-2075 (Portland)


Oregon AMS chapter web site: 

OMSI web site: