A Warmer Forecast

A slight change in the forecast this evening.  The general trend in the models the last 24 hours has been to push upper-level heights a bit higher this weekend through early next week.  I sure wouldn’t say Summer is coming back, but it’ll definitely be sunnier and warmer beginning Friday afternoon.

A nice addition to our online presence tonight; Brian set up a Facebook Page: 


We’re working on getting the blog posts to go directly to the page, but for technical reasons it can’t for now.  But they are going to my Facebook page: Mark Nelsen.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to A Warmer Forecast

  1. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The downpour just before 1 today brought 0.17″ of rain at my station, but at a rate of 2.91″/hour.

  2. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Summer is back per the 18Z… Meh.

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Check out Cliff Mass blog on winter forecast:


    Busy blog season ahead of us I hope

    • W7ENK says:

      A good report, and one that give me even more hope for a really good winter!

      I am, however, puzzled by one thing he said…

      “Now, if Seattle’s Mayor McGinn knows whats good for him he would be sharpening those snow plow blades, securing lots of sand and SALT, …”

      Salt? I didn’t think any jurisdiction in the PNW used salt. Here in P-town, I know we use gravel and Calcium-Magnesium Acetate (CMA) deicer. 😕 Really, salt is hard to come by in this part of the world, and it’s harmful to fish, which is why we don’t use it here.

  4. Jim in N. Tabor says:

    I wonder if Mark is suggesting there won’t be any more weather blog as we now know it and it will be on Facebook only, or am I misunderstanding his post ?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I don’t think the blog isn’t going anywhere… I think he is referring to having the blog posts show up as status updates on the Facebook KPTV Weather page.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It’s definitely not going away, but along with adding Twitter late last winter, we wanted to get a Fox12 Weather presence on Facebook too. Now it’s done.

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Here is another “first” if you will.

    12z WRF 36km SLP/925mb Temp model
    Frames 46-61

    The first potential cold blast moving southward out of the Arctic down into the Canadian Prairies. Temps as cold as -10c. Not too bad for September.

  6. Currently 62.1°F over here and just had a batch of “the drizzles” move through. . . . filtered sun is making a feeble attempt at breaking through the clouds. . .

  7. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Absolutely pouring here in Vancouver!


  8. Battle Ground Brian says:

    I am getting an absolute cloudburst right now at 12:15pm

  9. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:


    The NHC has this area marked with a 30-50% chance of development. I pulled the satellite for that area, and it doesn’t look very organized, but the gust front headed out toward the east from all of the storms is incredible.


  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    After looking over records going back to 1888 it appears that Salem has had it’s coldest summer since 1930! That’s 80 years. Yikes.

  11. Jim in N. Tabor says:

    Hey Rob, I was looking at that graph you posted earlier about FCST Hr 162 but I have no idea what it’s showing. Can you help me out ?

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Since Rob isn’t on right now…I’ll step in…basically, it shows a large area of low pressure (987 mb) out in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska). The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. Right now our pressure is 29.96″ or 1015 mb. Typically the lower the pressure, the more the storm curves off to the north as well.

      In order for us to see strong winds, you would look for a high pressure to the south, and right behind the low. The black lines are isobars (lines of equal pressure). The closer they are together, the stronger the winds.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Oh, and as another reference, the pressure in the December 2006 storm bottomed out at 970 mb. Wind strength also depends on the track of the storm and it’s forward motion.

    • Jim in N. Tabor says:

      Thanks Tyler. So is that showing strong winds for PDX or I suppose it depends on the path ?

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      No, in that frame the low pressure is way too far offshore. We would need it about 50-100 miles off the coast and moving north would be best for strong winds.

      Also, the 12z shows this storm only getting down to 1004 mb, so much much weaker, this is why weather forecasts are constantly changing!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      High pressure to the east and a low coming around Forks or south should give us a strong east wind event as well.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah I am not surprised 12z took it away. I wasn’t suggesting a wind event was on the horizon. Nah, it was merely an observation showing the 1st good low pressure Fall-like low pressure system.

  12. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Looks like Summer isn’t going to completely surrender yet. Not major surprise as nothing over the past year has gone quietly in the night. Winter let out a final gasp. Spring didn’t want to end. Now Summer is trying to gasp a few times.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      How much rain did you end up with the other day when Portland got dumped on?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Unfortunately my weather station is out of commission for the moment. My base unit’s batteries are dead and my rain gauge kept getting blown off the site I had it setup at. I plan on getting it back up to speed soon!

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Awe sucky! The wet season is upon us!

    • Hope you get it working again soon Ryan. We need all the Clark County stations we can get!

      58° and socked-in…

  13. Washington Observer says:

    Although I don’t belong to Facebook I think the weather page is an excellent idea. When the forest fires were raging through central British Columbia the Forestry personnel set up a Facebook page.
    It was a reliable source and it also had all the little bits of interesting info offered by members.

    • Washington Observer says:

      I think that might be more fascinating reading than W7’s FIRST sign.

  14. Can somebody remind me when the winter forecast meeting at OMSI is so I can plan to be there? Last I heard it was october, possibly on a saturday.

  15. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Check this out!

    6z GFS – FCST Hour 162

    A nice looking 987mb low nears 46 N, 140-145 W. Not bad for the middle of September. This gets me pumped for our Fall Northeast Pacific Storm season.

  16. This place cracks me up sometimes 🙂

    Nice to a a FB page. It did seem strange to have Twitter w/o FB.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    What a fantastic looking weekend ahead. Our last truly nice and somewhat warm one of 2010? Could very well be.

  18. Kyle says:

    How the heck did you do that fancy thing? 😕 😮

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I know! I would draw a t-storm, or a low pressure center if I knew how to do that!

    • W7ENK says:

      ASCII art… I’m sure you could find one on the web, somewhere. Just bear in mind that if it’s too big, it’ll text-wrap and look like garbage. Also, the text in the typie window is Unicode, so it’s universally spaced, but when submitted and posted, it’s not, so everything could get skewed.

      Block text (░░█▄▄░░░█░░█▄▄▀░▀▄░▀░░░█░░░░█░) is the best way to avoid that problem.

  19. Yevpolo1990 says:

    I love this forecast, now I can finally have some nice peaceful Lewis River fishing next weekend!

  20. W7ENK says:


    Sorry, I had nothing else. 😦

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