Is Summer Over?

 

I hate to be negative, but…  

 Looking at the maps for the next 7-10 days, models all show a cool trough sitting over the Western USA in one form or another.  You can see the negative anomaly in the 500mb 6-10 forecast map from CPC.  Keep in mind that 10 days takes us just about halfway into September.  The 2nd half of September is rarely “summery”, sure some warm days some years, but rarely a long period of warm & sunny weather.  Put that together with the forecast pattern which is very similar to one we’ve seen a good chunk of the summer, and it’s possible that we won’t have a string of 80+ degree days on the way again (3 or more).   It boils down to this: after tomorrow we go back to at least a week of cool Fall weather again…highs in the 60s and 70s.

Quite a different story tonight as the east wind keeps blowing on the hills and near/in the Gorge.  Temps in the mid-upper 70s and wind still gusting in the 25-35 mph range out there.  It’ll gradually die down overnight and should just be a light breeze in the Gorge by morning.  Then a switch to onshore flow late tomorrow afternoon.  A mild night and a late marine push spells another day in the mid 80s Friday.  Enjoy, since it’ll be a big change Saturday.

We’ve painted a somewhat gloomy picture for the weekend the last few days.  One saving grace may be that the cool marine layer will be disturbed by the upper-level trough quite a bit Saturday and Sunday, plus no inversion due to the cool air above.  So partly cloudy is possible both of those days…touching up forecasts a bit as we speak.

If you’re looking for a warm end to “Summer”, forget about it this weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

67 Responses to Is Summer Over?

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    Its hot in Utah today too, 95 here. This troughy pattern sure has been persistent. But no sign of change yet. I am fairly confident we see some kind of pattern change with a warm few weeks at some point. I’m thinking September is gloomy, October will be nicer than normal, and November cold and stormy. At least at this point. 🙂

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Scorching 94F in Beaverton! If this is the last 90 degree reading of the year, better enjoy it folks! Fall is on the way.

  3. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Frankly I’m glad for some cooler weather as it was almost 90 this afternoon at the house which frankly feels just too hot.

    On another note does anyone have any idea why Hurricane Earl has lost some strength? The Atlantic water temperatures off of the east coast are still quite warm so it can’t be that.

    • W7ENK says:

      My guess would be shear as Earl is encountering both a high pressure system and a cold front from different directions… or something, so I’ve heard.

      But, I’m no expert. 😕

  4. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of August 2010

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 67.6°F
    Average humidity = 60%
    Average dewpoint = 51.2°F
    Average barometer = 29.977 in.
    Average windspeed = 2.6 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.6 mph
    Average direction = 354° ( N )
    Rainfall for month = 0.13 in.
    Rainfall for year = 24.870 in.
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.05 in on day 31 at time 16:25
    Maximum temperature = 97.9°F on day 15 at time 17:58
    Minimum temperature = 48.6°F on day 20 at time 06:44
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 31 at time 20:24
    Minimum humidity = 16% on day 14 at time 17:48
    Maximum dewpoint = 61.9°F on day 05 at time 17:30
    Minimum dewpoint = 37.3°F on day 13 at time 21:31
    Maximum pressure = 30.44 in. on day 23 at time 08:50
    Minimum pressure = 29.68 in. on day 17 at time 17:08
    Maximum windspeed = 11.5 mph from 00°( N ) on day 28 at time 15:57
    Maximum gust speed = 19.6 mph from 045°( NE) on day 14 at time 13:06
    Maximum heat index = 95.6°F on day 15 at time 17:10

    Record low wind chill temperature = 48.6 on day 20 at time 06:35
    Record daily rain = 0.13” on day 31
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.05” on day 31 at time 16:25
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 97.3 on day 15
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 57.2 on day 23
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 59.7 on day 31
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 79.5 on day 15
    Record high dew point = 61.9 on day 05 at time 17:30
    Record low dew point = 37.2 on day 13 at time 21:45

    Avg daily max temp 55.4°F
    Avg daily min temp 41.1°F
    Total windrun = 1880.5miles

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.13 in. on day 31

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 2:00 PM Salem is up to 88 degrees. Looks like we will hit 90 for the 15th time (and probably the last) this summer.

  6. k5mitch says:

    So what do you think the chance of over night or morning precip is? I have been out removing all the old caulking on the travel trailer for two days. Should I tarp it tonight?

  7. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Old Farmers Almanac Winter Weather Forecast

    The Old Farmers Almanac 2010/2011 Winter Weather Forecast is out now and available at Barnes and Noble as of this morning. I picked up a copy, just for fun, as I have for years. Even though these forecasts have proven to be erroneous in the past, they are still fun to look at, in my view. I like to call it, “urban weather legend.” The overall weather outlook for Seattle and Portland this winter is a bit convoluted. I see several contradictions in the attachments enclosed. However, the basic synopsis seems to be —-

    * Due to a growing La Nina and low solar activity, Portland and Seattle will see above normal snowfall this winter.
    * Temperatures will be about normal this winter.
    * An outright “snowstorm” is predicted in mid December.
    * 10″+ of rainfall in the month of December. That is well above normal for the month.

    The national map paints a nice swath of snow over Portland and Seattle this winter. But as I say every year when I see this forecast —- “flip a coin and your odds will be just as good, maybe even better.” Enjoy the holiday weekend!

    See three attachments enclosed.

    Steve Pierce
    Vancouver, WA.

    Attachment 1 – http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/5641/usamap.jpg
    Atttachment 2 – http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/2526/pacnwtext.jpg
    Attachment 3 – http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/1729/usaforecasttext.jpg

  8. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Completely cloudy now in Long Beach.

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    How soon before the snow starts to pile up in the Cascades? My guess is about October 15th. Even with a cool September It’s just too warm for sticking lasting snow until then. How about this though, The weekend of the winter weather symposium at OMSI where they will tell us that it’s going to be a cold snowy winter, (Which we already know)we start to pile up our winter snowpack. What do you think about that Mark? Look possible this year, ski resorts opening in time for Halloween.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      sounds like it may start this weekend. 13,000 ft freezing level today dropping to 6,000 ft this weekend. And from the sound of it, Mark seems to think this pattern won’t end until the PDO shift sometime around 2040 or so….lol

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    83.1 here

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Already 80.8 here. PDX is 75, +7. As of 11 AM Visible satellite imagery shows no low clouds along the Coast. PDX-DLS is still offshore at -0.7mb, but quickly trending towards onshore. AST-PDX is onshore, but only +0.7mb, so no cooling pushing up the Columbia River yet.

  12. Washington Observer says:

    Well, at least we shouldn’t have the same September conditions for a Yacolt Burn.
    “A steamboat on the Columbia River had to use a searchlight to navigate.”
    That would be a lot of dark smoke.
    I think there were three Yacolt Burns but this one was the worst.
    The Tillamook Burn was twenty years later.

    Yacolt Burn, largest forest fire in recorded state history, rages from September 11 to 13, 1902.

    http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=5196

  13. Garron near washington square says:

    Two things for sure, it looks like a cooler pattern here, and a very active hurricane pattern next week as well. The 18z takes a storm into the Mexican gulf, the 12z takes the same storm directly into the Carolina’s. It looks busy next late next week.

  14. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    Windy in Hillsboro?

    03 Sep 9:53 am 70 51 51 S3 Gust51 10.00 CLR

    Otherwise +6 at the moment.

  15. Fred, C482 says:

    I just attended an annual “Environmental Emergencies” class at the FD. The common thread is, “remove from the hazard, hydrate, regulate body temp, manage ABC’s, etc.” Hot/Cold, same deal. The posts about the weather bear this out quite well.

    The body just doesn’t like ambient temps that affect the average core temp of 98.6 degrees by very much. The difference appears to be that each person needs a different ambient to be comfortable. The folks splashing around in the city fountains on a hot day seem to enjoy it while I, in my PPE at an emergency or a fire scene, would love to see the clouds and cooler temps.

    I live for fall, winter and spring, you can have summer, I’ll just try to survive until the season changes. My two cents worth, Oregon is still the best place to live, something for everybody. If you don’t like the weather, wait a while, it’ll change.

    • I think something that should be noted is the fact that all these gloomy rainy non-summer days are a westside weather pattern….there’s a lot of state out there that has blazing sun (whether it’s warm or cold)and clear blue skies…..check it out, the locals around here call it Eastern Oregon….

    • Washington Observer says:

      The weather in the PNW might have its faults but gosh we live in a beautiful area.
      There is so much diversity between the east and west side that there is something for everyone.
      The display of webcams on the Hood River weather site attest to the beauty of this area and those twelve cameras focus on just a small part of the PNW.
      http://webpages.charter.net/hoodriverweather/weather.htm

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I totally agree. I’ve had the opportunity to live overseas and visit a lot of wonderful places. It is here where I chose to live because I love the fact that when your at the beach, your like 90 minutes from skiing, camping, desert, rainforest, ect. It is truly amazing what we have here IMO.

  16. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The marine clouds are moving quickly onto the Washington coast, but the flow is still offshore here. When will the marine push reach the valley?

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

  17. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Great satellite view today of the approaching storm and Early. Looks like NC will clear out nicely today and will have mostly forgotten about Earl by dinner time tonight 🙂

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_east_full+6

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Will PDX hit 90 today?

    As of the 6 AM Observations PDX was 61, +7. PDX/TTD-DLS Gorge gradient is still over 3mb, so there could be some downslope compressional heating yet again today. I’m a bit concerned due to that, a warmer start, and marine push holding off until this evening that we hit 90-91 today which would bring the total of 90 degree days to 12. I’m hoping for an early marine intrusion keeping us in the upper 80’s.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      I might have missed it yesterday, but it seemed like the forecasts were 84-85 and we ended up 87-88. So if that happens again today, 90!

      I turned the AC on so I’m betting warm today.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      PDX won’t hit 90 today.

    • chiefWright says:

      I vote with Rob, at least here in Molalla. Air is already very warm, still and a bit muggy this morning. That marine layer will need to really get out & push….

  19. Glen says:

    That blows. Should have taken a vacation out of state this year but with a new baby that is nearly impossible. What I want to know is if you (Mark Nelsen) care to expound on a comment you made a short time ago about a possible major cold winter here in PDX this year? I’ve read a few other ‘weather’ guys mention of the NW getting cold masses from Canada and carrying the major snow for the states. Too early to accurately predict, I know, but an interesting idea.

  20. Sifton says:

    Looks like my ‘seasonal depression’ will be kickin in early this year! It normally doesn’t start till after the fall equinox. How anyone can enjoy rain/cold/gray for 6-8 months out of the year is beyond me.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m right there with you…

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You guys should move. There are plenty of warmer, sunnier places to live. That way, those of us who actually like the Pacific Northwest don’t have to listen you you complain. 🙂

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      *to you

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      Jesse, you really should move to northern Alaska.

    • Sifton says:

      Oh I see now, Jesse is 1 of the confrontational folks Mark was having trouble with awhile back right? I actually love (not like) the P.N.W. so I think I’ll stay & just vent a lil more often now, feels good!

    • pgiorgio says:

      I hate to agree but if you don’t like the weather in the Portland area that much to where you suffer a disorder from clouds and rain you really should consider moving for the sake of your health. Otherwise, people that do enjoy that weather have to hear the same complaining every year. You can always visit the Northwest from a sunnier place or come back in the summer.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Of course I am like most people who do not like to hear people complain constantly, but let’s try to be mindful and respectful because for some folks this disorder is actually serious affecting their lives very negatively.

    • sds says:

      I’ve got the solution–MOVE TO ST. THOMAS V.I.–high of 89–low of 81–warm all the time!

      Taking my own suggestion and leaving tonight–come on down!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      +1 pgiorgio!

      And sifton, you love the PNW?? I dunno, how anyone can enjoy rain/cold/gray for 6-8 months of the year is beyond me.

    • OMK says:

      It’s amazes me how any one can like gloomy, cold, gray days for weeks on end. Ground hogs day for 6 months. I too love the PNW but I can’t take it any longer. 5 weeks give or take of actual summer. Blah. I endured for a solid 12.5 years. But, the weather won, (and the job market) I’ll be watching you guys soak and freeze from SO cal this winter. Enjoy!

    • Washington Observer says:

      Speaking of depression:
      My mother, who suffers from depression usually takes a real down turn right around the fall equinox.
      It took me a few years to make the connection.
      It takes an exceptional doctor who will not raise his eyebrows when I bring in this little gray haired bundle of crying, hand wringing mess, and I say…”It’s the fall equinox.”

    • Joshua says:

      I lived in So Cal for the first 28 years of my life and I absolutely LOVE the weather here compared to there. Why would anybody want it to be 80 degrees on Christmas? Why would anybody want to see nothing but brown and smog for 9 months out of the year? Rationing water regularly is also fun. It is so nice to have actual seasons here and I actually wish our summer was a little cooler, wetter, and greyer, but hey- that’s what the rest of the year is for.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Sifton,

      You are correct, Jesse was one of “them”, but he’s also one of “us”. The evildoers! (just had to use that term). The thing is that he often puts a nice little smiley face on the note as the same time. That makes me think two things: we read his notes as more harsh than they really are (usually) meant to be, and, he is just genetically made that way and can’t help it? That said, just flick it right back at him. I bet he loves a good debate/argument. (insert smiley face here, I haven’t bothered to figure out how to do it)

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You’re right about that, Mark. I love a good debate.

      A lot of people here seem to shy away from it, or just think the act of disagreeing wih someone is inherently rude.

    • W7ENK says:

      I too, LOVE the PNW!

      …and, I wasn’t complaining, I was agreeing.

  21. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 9/2/2010
    88.7°F High
    53.6°F Low
    71.1°F out there still, at 1am!
    N 26.2 mph at 2:47p

    It’s odd that my strongest wind gust came directly out of the North. That must have been what took down 1 and a half rows of my corn? Snapped the stalks at 12 inches or less… should have tied it back. I knew it!

    At least it’s ready to pick… mostly. 😦

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Ever have any happy news to report, W7?

      It always sounds like your life is filled with such woe. Breaking corn stalks, cool weather…man, so tough. I’d hate to imagine if you had real problems. 😆

    • W7ENK says:

      Yes, actually. You must have missed my happy news earlier. I found today (just 10 minutes before the wind blew down my corn stalks) that about 90% of my corn is ready for harvest. I consider that a stroke of luck, or maybe Mother Nature’s way of encouraging me to not let it go too long?

      At any rate, when I’ve invested so much of my time, and my energy, and my heart into something like growing my own food, I feel a sense of pride in that. So, when the lack of a decent summer stretch prevents my tomatoes from turning red, or when a freak gust of wind blows through and flattens half of what I’ve been tending for the last 18 weeks, it’s a little frustrating and disappointing. Pardon me for expressing this frustration and disappointment here on the weather blog, but since it was done by the wind, it is weather related. Had a meteor landed in my garden and blasted half my vegetables out of the earth, I might have vented over on the NASA blog instead.

      I don’t discuss my “real problems” here.
      If only you knew, Jesse… 😆

  22. the wind has picked up a bit here, and ive warmed up 2 degrees since
    the calm at 10:30…currently it’s a-shame-to-have-to-go-to-bed 72.1
    here..

  23. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It is midnight and still 76.1 here as the hot east wind continues. It is weird to see 24% RH at this hour.

  24. Still 31% humidity here and breezy. A perfect summer night is in progress at BG Lake. 71 degrees still

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Watch Storms LIVE!
    Midland, Texas
    http://72.48.229.3:8887/view/index.shtml

  26. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Still a very warm and Summery 77.0 here due to a breezy to gusty east wind.

    I see as of 10 PM the PDX/TTD-DLS Gorge gradient was still around 4mb, so not surprising to see east wind continuing east of I-205.

  27. …i think it’s only fitting that what could be the last lazy night of summer is a damn near perfect 70 at 10:30……makes my mind drift back to younger days…warm night and a pocketful of money …and the energy to enjoy that combination!!!!!

  28. I’m waiting for this upcoming “epic” La Nina Winter! 🙂

    A warm 76°…Still a light east wind blowing.

  29. I’ve made my peace with summer and we agreed to see other people until next July 5th.

  30. stilllearning says:

    So does this mean we might actually escape rain Saturday??? The husband refuses to give up on painting the house!!

  31. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    First? Still gusty winds here.

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