A Nice Screw-Up Today

I love messing up a forecast like today’s.  Technically I haven’t put out a forecast since Friday, but I expected rain today just like everyone else, so I won’t run away from that.  But I planned to be inside all morning; instead got a nice bike ride in plus a bit of overdue yardwork.

Today’s rain headed south…look at the totals.  Around .50-.75″ soaking down in the central/southern Valley.  That plus the .02″ that fell in Hillsboro gave Eugene and that city their first rain in 57 days!  According to “HIO-Phil”, this was the 5th longest dry spell in Hillsboro’s history.  Pretty impressive considering how it looked all during the month of June.  Really, if someone would have predicted that back then most of us would have laughed.  I’m always amazed at how quickly the rain faucet can suddenly shut off in early summer.

A nice plume of subtropical moisture is streaming towards the Pacific Northwest right now.  Actually it’s aimed a bit to our north, but it sure looks like the wet season.  These systems that come in over the top of a ridge to our west (northwesterly upper-level flow) tend to be gloomy and wet.  So August will end tomorrow very unlike the rest of the month.  Not a ton of rain here in the lowlands; maybe just .05-.15″ maximum by evening.  But then a 2nd juicier wave moves inland tomorrow night.  Maybe another .10-.25″ with that one.  So POSSIBLY up to .50″ here in the lowlands, probably less west side of the Valley and more up in the foothills.  A nice wetting rain for the first time in 8+ weeks.

I like the change on Thursday.  Upper-level ridging pops up very quickly Wednesday night and Thursday.  We go from gloomy skies midday Wednesday to good offshore flow and a much warmer airmass Thursday.  We’ll make a change from October back to August in just one day.  I like the variable weather myself…the air in September is always so fresh and cool after rain, then the warmth following always feels great.

Not much else going on…pretty quiet in here.  Wayne and I are working together for the first time since mid-July.  Our vacations didn’t match up.  But Shauna had to leave, so the “family” won’t be back together for awhile longer.

Chief Meterologist Mark Nelsen

104 Responses to A Nice Screw-Up Today

  1. PDX Weather Nut says:

    TWC really screwed up the forecast today. They had a cloudy morning followed by afternoon sunshine with no rain.

    I thought this forum was supposed to be non-political?

  2. W7ENK says:

    4:40am – I was just awakened my a pretty hefty gust of wind… not really feeling like getting up to go see how strong it was, but it sounds awfully breezy out there right now. 😕

  3. My fall/winter predictions are as follows: we will see frost by mid-late October several times before most of the leaves fall off the trees. We will be flirting with snow levels in the hills before Thanksgiving, and by then it will be unofficially winter, and probably stay that way until early March (not counting our usual February warm spell which will be very short lived).

    Snow in the mountains will be above normal, but we may not see a lot here.

    We will see if I’m right when it’s April. Just had to throw this in.

    Good night everyone.

  4. W7ENK says:

    I noticed a new station on WeatherUnderground this evening; KORMILWA5. It is exactly 0.53 miles North of me (1.60 degrees).

    [Milwaukie] 8/31/2010
    64.4°F High ◄▬ -2.0°/KORMILWA3; -0.3°/KORMILWA5(new)
    52.0°F Low
    SW 14.5 mph at 4:49p
    0.11″ ◄▬ Both gauges concur.
    0.11″ August total monthly rainfall.

    I wish I could figure out how to get my station on WeatherUnderground… 😥

  5. Rich says:

    Over .50 inch so far…..
    Camas, P. Hill Aug 31, 2010 10:09 PM Temp

    Rain: 0.54″
    Gust: SSW 18Wind Chill: 56°F
    Humidity: 100%Dew Point: 58°F
    Avg Wind: 4 SSW
    Pressure: 30.07″
    Rain/Month: 0.59″

  6. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    I’m willing to bet that the central and south Willamette Valley ended up closer to average than the Portland area north. George Taylor’s site will no doubt have some info on that.

  7. Pete says:

    “this implies, arctic sea ice has indeed been increasing since 2007”

    Not so. The trend of increasing Arctic ice in the annual July report lasted exactly one year (not much of a trend, eh?). There was less Arctic ice reported in July 2009 than in 2008. And, now, less Arctic ice reported in 2010 than in 2009.


    • W7ENK says:

      Still, factually, an overall increase since 2007. Not until another July (perhaps 2011?) surpasses the lowest value set, which was in 2007, will this increase be overcome.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Who cares about July? We’re talking about when the sea-ice bottoms out, which is in August-September.

      2008 bottomed out higher than 2007.

      2009 bottomed out higher than 2008.

      And now it looks like 2010 will bottom out close to 2009.

      Making this the third consecutive year of increase/no decrease.

    • Pete says:

      There is more ice now than there was in 2007, yes. What seems to have happened was a fairly hefty rebound in 2008 from 2007’s record low, followed now by consecutive years of diminishing ice coverage.

    • W7ENK says:

      Indeed Jesse, it does!

    • Pete says:

      That’s a good point about September see ice extent, Jesse. I don’t know nearly enough about this stuff to predict what the report will show, so I will look forward to seeing the actual data.

  8. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    August Ends With Chill

    * Note – Permission is granted to quote or reuse the information below, with credit given to author.

    “The Portland International Airport reached a high temperature of just 64 degrees today (Tuesday, August 31st), missing the coldest high temperature ever recorded on this date by just 2 degrees. The coldest daytime high for August 31st at the Portland Airport is 62 degrees set in 2008. Here are a few other ways to show just how cold the last day of August really was in Portland —

    * Today’s high temperature was almost 15 degrees below normal for the date.
    * Today was just 5 degrees shy of the all-time coldest daytime high ever recorded for any day in the month of August.
    * Out of more than 2,140 August calendar days worth of data since records began in 1941, today was the 26th coldest August day ever recorded.
    * 99.1% of August days on record at the Portland Airport (1941-2010) have been warmer than today was.
    * Today tied the 4th coldest August high temperature in 30 yrs.

    Month Day Year Max Temp
    Aug 30 1980 63
    Aug 1 1989 61
    Aug 27 1991 64
    Aug 31 2008 62
    Aug 31 2010 64

    Here are the top 30 all-time coldest August daytime high temperatures on record at the Portland International Airport. Period of record is 1941-2010.

    Rank Month Day Year Max Temp
    1 Aug 2 1956 58
    2 Aug 28 1951 60
    3 Aug 28 1953 60
    4 Aug 24 1963 60
    5 Aug 27 1964 60
    6 Aug 24 1968 61
    7 Aug 13 1976 61
    8 Aug 1 1989 61
    9 Aug 30 1964 62
    10 Aug 30 1973 62
    11 Aug 25 1977 62
    12 Aug 31 2008 62
    13 Aug 24 1953 63
    14 Aug 23 1960 63
    15 Aug 7 1976 63
    16 Aug 15 1976 63
    17 Aug 30 1980 63
    18 Aug 27 1951 64
    19 Aug 4 1954 64
    20 Aug 30 1955 64
    21 Aug 25 1956 64
    22 Aug 26 1960 64
    23 Aug 24 1973 64
    24 Aug 19 1974 64
    25 Aug 27 1991 64
    26 Aug 31 2010 64
    27 Aug 3 1953 65
    28 Aug 26 1966 65
    29 Aug 18 1968 65
    30 Aug 18 1975 65

    Steve Pierce
    Vice President
    Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    503-504-2075 (Portland)
    e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net
    web site: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/

    • Washington Observer says:

      I was going to say earlier that I thought it was 1980, at the very end of August, when we were putting the last of the hay in the barn that I absolutely froze while driving the tractor.
      Evidently 2008 was colder, but I wasn’t sitting on a tractor so I don’t remember it.

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    It sure is a damp, chilly Augvember night. Seriously if I had been asleep(Perhaps hibernating)in a Cave all Summer and I had just now awoken you could have fooled me that this wasn’t an early November evening with a frontal boundary in proximity.

  10. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Just for the hell of it I also ran the numbers for July and August at PDX, minus the heatwaves, just to illustrate how cool the Summer suddenly looks overall when you subtract the isolated bouts of heat we had.

    Without those four days in the 90s, the remaining 27 days of July 2010 at PDX had an average high of 76.4, with an average low of 55.1 ( I subtracted the lows on the heatwave days too to balance things out) giving an average monthly temp of 65.8 or 1.7 degrees below average.

    Doing the same thing for August (subtracting seven days this time) the remaining 24 days of August had an average high temp of only 72.3 with an average low of 53.8, giving an average monthly temp of 63, or 5.5 degrees below average.

    I realize this is messing with the numbers quite a bit, and that taking hot (90+) days out of most Summer months at PDX will change the averages drastically, but I do think this illustrates a unique aspect of this Summer – there was very little in between. It was either 90+ or WAY below average.

    The 90+ days we saw only represent 18% of July/August. We spent 82% of the Summer with these rather cool conditions.

    • Sounds nice. The 82% that is.

    • W7ENK says:

      Good! So you got “82% of (your) Summer with these rather cool conditions”. Exactly what you were hoping for, right? That should make you happy, then.

      Just to be fair, shouldn’t you also drop the 4 coolest days of July, and the 7 coolest days of Augtober? Try that and run the numbers again, just out of sheer morbid curiosity… 🙂

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      I guess that pretty much explains the green tomatoes.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      W7, I’m sure if I did that you’d just see numbers closer to average, if not a little below, just like the months themselves turned out.

      When you take away the x-number of warmest days and x-number of coldest days from a given month, assuming the mean of the respective +,- depatures overall were pretty close, you would end up with no real net change. Hence, looking at the whole month would give you a similar picture as looking at the month with the x-number warmest days and x-number coldest days subtracted.

      Hope that makes sense…

    • Runrain says:

      Green tomatoes, pint sized cucumbers, late for everything else. Nice summer. Hope we get back to a normal summer next year.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I like this, Jesse. Very good research as well as the explanation of your data. That sure would have been one hell of a cold July!

    • W7ENK says:

      @Jesse: I see what you’re getting at, but if you want to prove that the month was in fact that far below average, then subtracting both sets of numbers would only be fair. It could very well be that the lowest of the lows were actually extremely low, and subtracting the higher end would skew the overall numbers much lower. On the other hand, I could perhaps subtract the 5 lowest days and show that the month was above average. It’s all relative, and this just goes to show that anyone can skew the numbers any which way to prove their point, however erroneous or irrelevant it may be. The Dumbocrats have been doing this to the warm side for years!

      I don’t mean to provoke or anything, I’m just saying that I don’t think it’s all that beneficial to subtract the ‘Heat waves’ to prove a point. Just be satisfied with the fact that even with the heat waves, July and Augtober were still below average temperature wise.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I don’t think you’re understanding what I was getting at here, W7. There’s a difference between manipulating numbers to fool people and simply playing with them (no smoke and mirrors, pretty straightforward stuff, I told you all exactly what I did) to illustrate an interesting aspect of this Summer’s temp regime.

      And I’m a Democrat, so I take offense to that term. You don’t see anyone here throwing “Redumblican” around. 😉

    • W7ENK says:

      I am seeing what you’re getting at, and I don’t agree with the approach, that’s all.

      And, I call them Retardlicans, of which I am neither… but that’s crossing the line into politics. I apologize for my insensitive comment; I didn’t mean to offend. My bad. 😦

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      How would you suggest I approach it? When I am trying to show how cool the Summer defaulted when it wasn’t hot (if that makes any sense) what better way than to subtract the hot days and see how the remainder averaged?

      Taking out cool days would just diminish my point and make for a closer to average, less dynamic number. Like I said, more or less where the monthly averages stand.

      And no need to apologize, it’s not like I’m frothing at the mouth in anger here at my keyboard. I just thought throwing “Dumbocrat” out there is probably best way to avoid political conflict here.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      *is probably NOT the best way

    • SilentReader says:

      I think jesse covered the caveats with his post. taking the highs/lows extremes out is messing with the #’s. But then again all summers have the highs/lows that affect over all temps. Its the way it goes.

      Those of you who have seen my very few posts know that averages get under my skin in general.

      Average temps might be 80.0 but it does not mean we will be at 80.0’s. it takes those 90’s and 60’s for highs to make that 82F average at certain points of the year.

      But I get Jesse’s post and see his point. It’s really that we did not end up with that many 90’s or upper 80’s for that matter. What would be interesting to see is a breakdown of 70’s,80’s,90’s as compared to other years. although in the end the averages tell the story. (or average mean temps for a given month).

    • tonybertolo says:

      To be quite honest, when trying to negotiate pattern based data from a result set, scientifically speaking, Jesse is on the right track.

      You would want to pull the OBVIOUS outliers in both the lower limit and upper limit. As long as less than 20% of your data falls into the “inner bounds” category, than comparing that result set to result sets from experiments performed just before or just after is the best way to produce valuable data. With that said, sometimes deciding which data is out of bounds is an argument in and of itself sometimes.

  11. Jesse-Orchards says:

    59/52 today, with .32″ of precip and counting.

    After today PDX will be 0.3 below average for August. That will make this their 5th consecutive month with a below average monthly mean.

    Looking back at this Summer at PDX-

    June: -2.3

    July: -0.6

    August: -0.3

    That gives an average “meteorological Summer” depature of -1.1, our coolest Summer since at least 2001.

  12. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Btw, today’s high temperature moved my August average high from just barely above normal, to just barely below.

  13. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I’m just saying the temps are well above normal after being well below normal all summer.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, I see now. Well, that’s only been over the last few days, perhaps 10 to 14 or so? It could still change back. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Actually, if you look at 2008, arctic temps were WAY above average the weeks and months leading into our epic winter blast/snow/ice event.


      Click on 2008

      Even last year; same thing leading into that deep freeze we had in December.

      See 2009

      Even with those extremely HIGH temps, it was still 250K to 255K = -10F to 0F

  14. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    You know, if there is no ice for us to draw cold air from, we could be screwed for cold air this winter…


    • W7ENK says:

      Wait, why wouldn’t there be any ice? I must be missing something here… I thought the arctic ice had been increasing since 2007???

    • Pete says:

      From NOAA, 8/13/2010: “Arctic sea ice covered an average of 3.2 million square miles (8.4 million square kilometers) during July. This is 16.9 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the second lowest July extent since records began in 1979. The record low July was set in 2007. This was the 14th consecutive July with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. July 1996 was the last year that had above-average sea ice extent.”

    • W7ENK says:

      So yes, then as this implies, arctic sea ice has indeed been increasing since 2007, as there has not been a new record low July set since then.

    • Kyle says:

      I wouldn’t put much stock into their numbers as they have been known to “fudge” data for good ol Al.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Kyle, nobody is fudging the numbers. And by the time we start getting into the possibilities of arctic blasts, the arctic ocean will be well frozen over, even if it is just new ice.

  15. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The next few days will be really nice. The dust is settled, things are just a little moist. Probably some ground fog early Thursday before the offshore wind kicks in. Labor Day weekend looking dry…

  16. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    59.8 for my high today. That is the coldest high I’ve ever recorded in August (records since 1996). My old record was 62.9 on today’s date in 2008.

    I was at 0.25″ of rain when I left my parents…where my station is located. This actually breaks my daily precip record of just 0.04″ back in 2008 as well.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Too bad PDX got that break in the rain around 5pm or they would have had a record like us up here in Clark Co. today.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Brian rooting for cold??

      Fall must be just around the corner. 🙂

  17. Battle Ground Brian says:

    The following stations in Washington State have recorded at least 1 inch or rain today as of 6:11pm PDT

  18. Battle Ground Brian says:

    58.9 High today at BG Lake.

    4 years of record keeping here at BG Lake and today was by far the coldest maximum high ever in August at my station. The old record low max was 63.3 set last year.

    Here are the coldest August Maximums 2006-2010 at BG Lake.

    2006 65.8 08/24/06
    2007 64.3 08/20/07
    2008 66.7 08/18/08
    2009 63.3 08/14/09

    2010 58.9 08/31/10

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You sure you weren’t colder August 2008? PDX had a 62/48 day the 31st of that month. I can’t imagine you were warmer than 66.7 that day.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Oddly enough 08/31/2008 at BG Lake

      High: 69.1 Low: 43.1 Precip: 0.02″

      Now, that being said, back then I did not have a huge king size sheet shielding my thermo from suns radiation like I do now.

  19. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    1948 data and later, the record low high for Hillsboro is 62 in 1960 so no record today. There’s probably a lower high temp pre 1948 as well but that will take more time for me to find than I have at the moment.

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oh, looks like Portland missed the record of 62F. 63F right now…

  21. Battle Ground Brian says:

    ****Record Low Maximum Possible at PDX today (Aug 31)

    Current record is 62 degrees in 2008. Looks like the high might have been only 61 or so today so far.

    • Rich says:

      Camas, Prune Hill. We picked up .10 in 2 hours. Not too shabby.
      Aug 31, 2010 4:27 PM Temp

      Hi: 60°F
      Lo: 53°
      Rain: 0.14″
      Gust: S 14Wind Chill: 58°F
      Humidity: 95%Dew Point: 57°F
      Avg Wind: 3 E
      Pressure: 30.10″
      Rain/Month: 0.19

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      No fair, its 63F here in Hillsboro. And strangely it doesn’t even feel like 63F, more like 72F probably because I forgot what its like to get a rainy day during the summer. Or am I having the ‘after-effects’ from last December’s cold snap? 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Wunderground history doesn’t seem to display record low highs. All they have is the maximum high temp for the day and the coldest low temp for the night. Is there a site that shows more than that?

  22. Battle Ground Brian says:

    3pm at BG Lake

    Rainfall so far today: 0.19″

    High Temp: 58.9 at 1230p

    Currently: 57.2 at 300p

  23. W7ENK says:

    I guess it’s official… my dry spell has been broken.

  24. Jim in N. Tabor says:

    Very light rain over here, almost a heavy mist. Just enough to wet the street but not really enough to soak the lawn.

  25. Tyler says:

    Moderate rain out in Orchards I would say we are already closing in on a tenth.

  26. W7ENK says:

    I expected to wake up to wet streets and dripping trees… is it really raining anywhere out there? It’s been completely dry since I got up at 9am. I can smell the rain, but I have yet to SEE any actual signs of it here. The hills toward Lake Oswego have looked ‘misty’ all day, but it’s almost like I’m in some strange little rain shadow off the West Hills or something… is that even possible??? 😆

    Might I stretch my dry spell yet another day to 59?
    At this point, I doubt it.

  27. Hmmm. . . Augtober-fest, indeed. . .

    Currently 59°F and a very light rain (has been, off and on most of the morning. . .). Lovin’ these Fall-like temps.

    Hard for anyone to grouse about the weather these last couple weeks – there’s been pretty much a little of something for everyone. . . IMHO.

    Now — back to my hot chocolate. 😉

  28. J-Kelso says:

    The conditions outside right now totally remind of a brief lull in the rain during a pineapple express storm system.

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    0.03″ of rain so far at KHIO since midnight. Record for today is 0.68″ set in 1939, I doubt that will happen. The rain is as light as it can be.

    • Joshua says:

      The ”rain” here in Lake Oswego is literally not even enough to get the streets wet. I am disappointed. I eagerly anticipate October when I am pretty sure that I will see some real ”rain”.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      The rain should get heavier as we head to the evening hours. It wasn’t going to start out with much more than a mist.

      Give it some time… That said I’d wager we see .20 to .30″ today.

    • Joshua says:

      I hope you’re right Ryan. The unseasonably cool temps and dark skies are at least enough to not make this a total wash no matter what happens with the precipitation.

    • Washington Observer says:

      Quillayute has an airport??
      I know it has lots of rain!!
      We camped there once when the kids were little.
      At 3:00 am we were throwing wet kids, wet sleeping bags, wet tent and wet dog into the car and headed for Port Angeles.
      The windows steamed up so bad we couldn’t see to drive.

  30. In Hood River, our rainfall yesterday finished a 70 day stretch of no measurable rain, both at my station and the more official OSU Ag Research station. This beat last year’s dry spell of 66 days.

    • Washington Observer says:

      I finally broke down and went from dial up to satellite internet.
      One of the benefits of that decision is now I can open up your website.
      I just ordered a weather station to try and keep track of Glenwood weather. I may be e-mailing you for some advice.
      I always did think you had a great site. I just couldn’t open it up without my mac turning into a spinning rainbow.

    • Yep, it’s a total graphics/bandwidth hog, sorry ’bout that! Feel free to contact me regarding any weather station questions. It’d be great to have a Glenwood data point.

    • Oh, and I messed up. It was a 71 day dry spell, but who’s counting. 😉

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      One of my favorite Mtn bike rides of all time was a ride from Outlet Creek Campground (East of Glenwood) to Wahkiacas along that closed road (company rd) on the west bank of the Klickitat river and back. I believe the road washed out in the 1996 flood and was never rebuilt.

    • Washington Observer says:

      Of course it was a favorite.
      It was downhill all the way!!

      Portions washed out in ’96.
      You can walk, pull and tug a bicycle up and around those portions.
      Not suppose to though.
      As much as weather is exciting, I sure don’t want a repeat of the 1996 flooding.
      My toilet didn’t work for weeks.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      I actually rode up the railroad grade and then came down the steep shaft near Stinson flat. Oh, and yes I then rode all the way back from Wahkiacus back up to Outlet Creek Camp area where the car was parked. It was 95 for a high temp that day in Klickitat. A total of 33 mile ride both ways.

    • Washington Observer says:

      My apologies. I missed the “and back.”
      From Wahkiacas to Outlet isn’t fun in a car much less on a bicycle in 95 degree heat.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      It was a dry heat, I drank lots of water.

  31. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Its completely okay to screw that one forecast up, but you know it wasn’t a whole loss, we still HAD rain! 🙂

    Nice post and thanks for reminding me of the June faucet. Good stuff man.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      And of course… In a few months the collective amateur and professional weather forecasting group will have plenty of missed forecasts to spread around! 🙂

  32. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Looking forward to the rain today. It has been entirely too long with out a day long soaker.

  33. 47 and dry so far this morning.

    The 0.76″ Mark mentions above for Sweet Home is about 1/2 mile east of me.

  34. Battle Ground Brian says:

    08-30-2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes


    High: 76 at Blalock & Umatilla
    Low: 59 at Blalock


    High: 38 at Crater Lake Rim
    Low: 28 at Crane Prairie

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Nelson (71/37)

  35. Battle Ground Brian says:

    BG Lake 08-30-2010

    High: 71.4 Low: 51.4 Precip: 0.03″

  36. W7ENK says:

    Just a trace this morning, which extended my dry spell to 58 days. So it ends tomorrow then, huh?

    [Milwaukie] 8/30/2010
    71.4°F High ◄▬▬ 0.9° warmer than KORMILWA3
    54.1°F Low
    SW 12.8 mph at 5:17p

    • Garron near washington square says:

      I buy your readings as Milwaukie seems to be at the warm end of the forecast area usually anyway.

    • W7ENK says:

      Thanks Garron. I think Milwaukie tends to run 2-3 degrees warmer than most places naturally. I’ve noticed that even when the TV mets report Milwaukie on current temperature maps, we’re always one of the warmest. In the winter, were also one of the last places to transition over to snow. Sometimes when it’s right on the edge, we’ll just get rain when everywhere else around got at least a dusting.

  37. another lucky occasional first!

  38. Like this time of the year when warm days usually are followed by cooler days.


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