There’s some good news in the weekend forecast…tomorrow looks great with lots of sunshine from Eugene north west of the Cascades. That includes the ocean beaches too. Sunday looks a bit cloudier, with low clouds early, then increasing high-level clouds in the afternoon. But a DRY weekend. There is a system offshore right now that’s going to swirl down through the southern half of Oregon tomorrow. So Central/Eastern Oregon will be much cloudier tomorrow with a chance for a shower. You can even see some afternoon convective showers popping up over the Cascades too. Keep that in mind if you’re hiking up there…an afternoon shower is likely. Our model shows the situation around 1pm Saturday, click on it for a better view.
What I’m excited about is the likelihood for rain Monday. It appears that we may actually have a rainy day as a chilly system dives in over us out of the Gulf of Alaska. My son, who returns to school Monday, suggested that it’s excellent because he doesn’t want to be in school when it’s sunny. For the hard-core weather folks: Notice the path of the system as it dives in on the 500mb charts, plus a nice surface low that curls down the Coast. Reminds me of those La Nina winters where surface lows come down at us from the northwest (low snow level)…a sign of things to come? That was the pattern for much of winter 2007-2008.
Well, that aside, with decent dynamics and moisture, we could see .25″ or so even in the driest parts of the Metro. The WRF-GFS shows .50-1.00″ up on the west slope of the Cascades. Either way it’s going to be the first “settling of the dust” since the first few days of July. Along with that it should put a huge damper on firest burning in the mountains. The View Lakes Complex around Olallie Lake jumped to 5,000 acres the last couple of days. Probably 45 and rainy up there Monday! Beyond that it’s back to warm and dry Tuesday and beyond.
I’ll be busy attempting to get a roof on my big summer project, or if we get to late Sunday evening…a nice blue “Whiskey-Tango” tarp.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen