Not Such A Cloudy Forecast

Tonight is one of those situations where our mesoscale models can really help out the forecast…at least that’s my plan as I’ve done some minor “outpatient” surgery to the forecast for the next few days.  That’s as opposed to the “open-heart” surgery we do on a day like…for example…Tuesday, December 29th at 3:30pm.  Not that I’m still bitter about that day, but let’s move on…

The point is that the general plan the next few days has been for a major marine push tonight, coupled with a cold airmass (for August) moving in overhead the rest of the week.

Three changes:

1.  The airmass appears to be mainly dry through at least Saturday/Sunday.  It’s a cold trough but just really dry.  Models just aren’t generating much of any precip.  Other than a possible afternoon shower either tomorrow or Sunday, I think the next real chance for rain isn’t until Monday as a somewhat organized system slides in on a northwesterly jet.

2.  The 2nd change goes with the image above.  The mesoscale models show that we don’t get a solid layer of clouds tonight inland, or along the coast for that matter!  The mixing of drier air above appears to totally disrupt the stratified marine layer.  Due to that, it’s quite possible a good chunk of the metro area starts sunny tomorrow and just gets a few puffy cumulus clouds in the afternoon.  Combine that with a gusty northwest wind and it should be a nice refreshing late August day.  Definitely not a gloomy “marine-layer” day…no chance for drizzle, just a sprinkle from one of those clouds in the afternoon…maybe.  The image above is our RPM model around 8am.  In the animation (you can’t see that part) you actually see the low clouds peel down off the coast as the drier air moves south after midnight.

Friday should be a bit cloudier, but even then just lots of higher clouds.  Saturday as the cold trough sinks over us we start clear…which means a very cold start, probably the coldest so far this late summer season.  Then we get pop-up afternoon clouds with maybe a mountain shower.

So…not a gloomy forecast at all, just some real “September Weather” for the last few days of August.  It’ll be time to try and get a roof on the chicken coop and kids treehouse this weekend since the walls are all finished.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Not Such A Cloudy Forecast

  1. Here is new link for webcam in Barrow, Alaska:

  2. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Models are starting to show a ridge building later next week. With any luck, we’ll get an amplification of the high to give us a much needed nice 3 day weekend. Memorial Day and the 4th were not so great. Come on, one outta three? Burger burnin’, beer sloggin’, toe stubbin, lawn mowin’, trout catchin’ memory makin’ flip floppin’ dang good weekend. (I’d go on but Mark might Zap me).

  3. Battle Ground Brian says:

    BG Lake stats 08-26-2010

    High: 67.9 (-26.4 degrees cooler than yesterday)
    Low: 55.6

    At 930pm 57 ptly cldy and still a decent NW breeze.

    • Kyle says:

      (random Star Trek Voyager computer noises)

      You have recevied an automated transmisson from subspace frequency 123.4 from the ship Windstar:

      *Transmisson begins*

      No offense Brian but I say your unique post and have to say this:

      😮
      OMG! You just did something that’s ‘human’! You said “decent” NW Breeze when most of your posts are robotic facts!

      Holyeffinlord! 😮 😮

      Excuse me but I gotta go tell Captain Picard now!…………………..as soon as he isn’t busy of course.

      Kyle out.

      This transmission has now ended and has been logged until deleted by the user.

  4. Was in Portland & Hillsboro for the day. I thought today was a “10” blue sky…light breeze…sunshine…loved it. Wish it would be this nice tomorrow….am going on the Spirit of Portland for a bit tomorrow, Better bring a jacket huh!

  5. Kyle says:

    If it’s suppose to be so sunny then why was it so gloomy like it wanted to rain today?

    At least I cleaned out the car inside/out due to the cloud cover not making it hot. 🙂

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I have never heard any sort of mention with this January 1880 cyclone, people always reference October 12th 1962 as the “big one”. Very interesting story indeed. And it is very true how most other storms we have stay offshore and never move inland.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      The infamous and almighty Storm King has been discussed on here many other times. It was truly a fun storm.

  7. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Check out the changes at Baker City around 3pm when the cold front swung through.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=KBKE&num=48&raw=0&dbn=m

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Currently 67.6 under mostly cloudy skies with a nice, refreshing breeze as well. My high temp today was 68.8! down from 94.2 yesterday.

  9. High 74
    Low 55

    Now mostly cloud! Very comfortable day.

  10. Battle Ground Brian says:

    August 26, 2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:

    High: 103* at Alkali Flat
    Low: 71 at Little McCoy Creek , Grassy Mtn, Basque Hills & Owyhee Ridge

    Coolest:

    High: 59 at Charleston
    Low: 35 at Crane Prairie

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees

    North Powder (97/41)

    *106 degrees at Pittsburg Landing, Idaho today in Hells Canyon.

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Is anyone having fun yet?

  12. Karl Bonner says:

    One comment about serious forecast flubs. I was wondering when was the last time that the overall weather community messed up on a borderline inversion scenario – forecasting sunshine and warmth but getting a cold stubborn fog instead, or vice versa. I recall one day this past February where instead of low 60s the south valley got a foggy 45ish day, but I’m curious as to when the last “big” snafu was for a late fall or early spring (technically late winter) ridge setup like this.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      Sept 13th, 2007. Forecast was 81 for Hillsboro. Ended up with a strong marine push, persistant marine layer .01″ precip and a high of 61 or 20 degrees lower. That’s missing a forecast.

      And that killed summer for good that year.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      So, I have bad memories from 09-13-2007

      Me and a friend thought it would be cool to ride the mountain bikes from RD4109 (Silver Star) down to Grouse Vista and then over Larch Mtn into east Battle Ground. It was slated to be a 23 mile / 5 hour ride.
      We got above the marine layer right at Silver Star summit and then we descended onto the SW side of the mountain in zero visibility and mist. As we got lower it became heavy drizzle and we missed a trail turn off because of the dense fog. I was wearing tank top and shorts. So, to make a long story short, We got lost in the fog and ended up riding in the rain/cold for 5 hours and finally got a cell phone call out where I was rescued in the Dole area at Dark. That was one horrible day and I will never forget it.

    • Washington Observer says:

      When the kids got caught in a May blizzard on Mt Hood and died…..was that a mis-forecast or an unwise hiking trip?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That would be the 2nd I think. As I recall the weather was gradually worsening even as they headed towards the summit.

  13. Karl Bonner says:

    Highs in the 60s without a really solid cloud deck…now that actually looks more like early October than September. And those lows staying in the low 50s on the 7-day forecast…I take it we’re actually going to be quite a bit colder away from the heat islands, no?

    Any airmass cold enough to give us late August highs in the upper 60s without rain or heavy clouds should allow temps to plummet at night if there is any clearing at all. Which is more bad news for those of us growing warm-weather stuff in our gardens…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Our seven day forecast always refers to the city. But I think even our 53 for Saturday morning is too warm. I bet we’ll see some upper 30s outlying areas and 46-50 warmest spots.

  14. muxpux says:

    to add on about that 1880 January storm:

    http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/January1880.html

    a good read…

    • Washington Observer says:

      A long, long article but, yes, it is a good read and full of information.
      Did you notice how the winds came from different directions?
      The Col. Day storm was devastating but this one with snow must have been miserable.
      Tacoma, on the fringes of the wind storm had 4 feet of snow.
      Thanks for the link. I have put it in my “weather” file.

  15. Frogger99 says:

    looks like KPTV is predicting the end of the world in exactly one week! check out the 7-day.

  16. Battle Ground Brian says:

    2pm at BG Lake

    Down to 62.3 now with low dark overcast and strong NW Breeze. I was hoping that Mark’s optimistic forecast would pan out today but it looks like clouds have filled in behind the FROPA due to vigorous NW winds plowing into the cascades combined with the cool air aloft coming over warmer landmasses. Much nicer to the south toward Salem/Eugene today which has been the theme for much of this summer.

  17. Battle Ground Brian says:

    64.7 degrees and overcast at 1pm, about 15 minutes ago I got a very strong westerly wind gust which may have been a FROPA. Maybe low clouds are going to break a little this afternoon behind the front, but I think 70 at best out here for a max today.

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Down to 65.6 now with a fantastic northwesterly breeze. This is awesome. This gets me charged up for Fall!

  19. SilentReader says:

    been socked in with clouds all day in Scappoose. Maybe all the clouds are a bit north but making their way down. Looks like it may drizzle (or has). Currently 57.5 at about 1000ft. We usually run 10-12 degrees cooler up here.

    • SilentReader says:

      our high for the day of 62.6F happened at 12:10am this morning. So the coastal air has reached here for sure.

  20. Washington Observer says:

    I previously asked about the year 1964.
    Weatherdan gave an informative response.

    I just received the following from a friend in response to everyone complaining because their tomatoes are not ripening.

    “The year was 1964. It was the rainiest year that ever happened. The sky was gray almost all year. Everything grew giant sized but nothing matured. We had two or three weeks sunshine in August and September and that was it. People were so depressed.
    There was a great snow pack in the Cascades that winter (1964-65) and we had floods. In fact, all h*** broke loose.”
    She then goes on to describe the floods.

  21. 66° with the clouds rolling in.

  22. Haven’t posted on here is quite a while. . . But a little “birdie” assured me it was restored to being a safe and pleasant place to blog. . . So here’s my pennies’ worth:

    Currently 62F and breezy. Was clear as a bell until just about 25 minutes ago (I was starting to doubt the 73F forecast but now I’m starting to believe it’s going to be spot on). Why do I doubt??? 😉

    Toodles. . .

  23. WEATHERDAN says:

    Mark what’s the third change. You said I’ve made three changes but listed only two, please elucidate further.

  24. Haven’t been on here in a very long time. . . But a little “birdy” told me it was a safe and pleasant place to blog once again – so here’s my pennies’ worth:

    Currently 62F, breezy. . .and the clouds are starting to move in. I was doubtful that today’s forecast would stick (considering it was clear as a bell just 30 mins ago). But I think the KPTV weather team might be right on the money for today (again). 😉

    Toodles. . .

  25. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Looks like Summer will try and get out another gasp next Wednesday/Thursday.

    T-Minus 35 days until October. 🙂

  26. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Mornings don’t get much better than this!

    59° under clear skies.

  27. W7ENK says:

    Nice call on today’s weather, Mark… well played! 🙂

    Sunny and 63 degrees at 8am.

  28. Clear skies and 55° this morning.

  29. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    Dude, where’s my cool air? – I see from your post you caught this Mark.

    60 degrees so far for a low when I left this morning. Not a cloud in the sky. NWS has a high of 74 and a 20% chance of drizzle. Onshore flow better kick in in a big way right now if that is going to happen. Right now I’m thinking low – mid 80’s today given that it is going to be at least partly sunny and we are starting at 60.

    There was a bit of a NW breeze in Hillsboro this morning. Pretty much dead still in Beaverton.

    • W7ENK says:

      I have no complaints here. 🙂

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      We will get a good enough push to prevent heating into the 80’s. I think the earlier forecasts for 70-74 are going to get busted though.

      I’d say 76-78 for a high today.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Patience my friends…northwest wind is picking up and I see HIO actually dropped a degree from 10am-11am. When is the last time that happened???

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

      At this time of day? Probably mid winter.
      Yep, pretty rare to be cooling off mid-morning this time of year.

  30. Carl in Cascade Park says:

    Beautiful morning. 🙂

  31. Tyler says:

    Beautiful clear skies in Long Beach this morning.

  32. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie]
    97.0°F High
    60.3°F Low
    W 8.3 mph at 2:30p

  33. Tyler says:

    Down at beach now. Was 73 in Cathlamet with winds gusting to 35 mph and white caps on the water. Right at Naselle it clouded over completely in about one mile of driving. Currently here in long beach, drizzle and 57.

  34. W7ENK says:

    So, it sounds like tomorrow might be cooler, but still nice… no precip? Then tomorrow should hopefully be a great day to take my little buddy to the zoo! 🙂

    Sunday sounds like it’s still up in the air, maybe? I hope it’s dry, since I’m taking the kid out to Molalla. 😕

  35. Looks like my kind of day tomorrow!

  36. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Sounds excellent to me.

  37. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    The crickets are on a roll..

  38. Repeat from last thread…..

    A couple of new posts from George Taylor:

    Earl Stewart – 78 Years of Weather Observations
    http://appliedclimate.wordpress.com/2010/08/25/earl-stewart-%E2%80%93-78-years-of-weather-observations/

    The Columbus Day Storm
    http://appliedclimate.wordpress.com/2010/08/25/the-columbus-day-storm/

    • Can’t help it in missing Jack Capell. That “hunch” he had on Columbus day wasn’t the only one he had. There were other weather situations that he accurately predicted as well in his day.

      As I’ve said before, The Columbus Day storm is in a class all by itself. Nothing comes close…

    • Washington Observer says:

      Those are two great stories.
      I remember the soft spoken Jack Capell with fondness.

      Last night I was reading a little history book about Clark County. It talks about the “Great Gale of 1880”
      It says that whole forests were laid to the ground destroying up to 90 percent of the areas remaining timber.
      It does not say what month this happened.

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow! That 1880 storm sounds a bit of a freak occurance! What’s with all the snow and damaging winds from the North and Northwest along the coast and Lower Columbia? That doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense, actually. The time disparity is a bit of a mystery as well…

      It would be fun to see if one could collect all available data on this storm and try to piece together a scenario that might explain all this?

      Crazy!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I just love reading the style of writing from that era. It seems more elegant than the style of English we have today.

  39. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Nothing is wrong with sunny and cooler.

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