An active afternoon?

An attractive picture off the southern Oregon coast this morning. Thunderstorms started popping up around 7 a.m. This is associated with that upper-level low that looks to be pushing eastward. Models have it tracking up over the central Cascades and could impact the central Valley this afternoon. My forecast for today calls for some some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening in parts of central and eastern Oregon. There are some pretty good CAPE values for this afternoon near Eugene and Salem. I am not anticipating any action there but with that high CAPE, that would be the best spot in the valley where some storms could pop up.

Meanwhile we remain under a heat advisory for the northern and central Willamette valley. One more day of 90+ degree weather before the cool down begins. Who’s ready for it?

Pat Rosborough

544 Responses to An active afternoon?

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Welcome to Fall!

    …. And what a wonderful, crisp Fall morning it has been.

    Fall? Did someone turn the calender overnight? You sure could have fooled me. My low temp was 44.8. It was a perfect at 6:00 AM during my 2 mile walk. I saw really no morning clouds other than a few drifting southeastward from the Columbia River. Now we have just patchy low clouds, so I doubt they develop in east Portland/Gresham. Also I see Hillsboro set a new record low I believe.

  2. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280' says:

    KHIO got at least as low as 40 last night and 40 or lower will be a new record low for the date at KHIO. Beating the old record of 41 from 1933 & 1947. 1980 had a low of 42 as well.

    (Sorry Mark, new computer at work so I will need moderation. It should be the last time.)

  3. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Looks like BC may get some decent rain over hte coming days. The GFS shows a low pressure just off of the Texas coast, but not till later next week. Also, the GFS and the Euro insist on some sort of tropical entity coming off of the African coast and developing to a rather strong storm.

    Euro builds next week’s ridge just to our east, if it were to shift at all to the west we could be in for well over 90 again.

    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_slp_mu_loop.shtml

  4. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    A cool morning for sure! 46 at my place, 41 in Battle Ground, 39 in Brush Prairie. McMinnville is 42. Definitely a touch of fall this morning!

  5. k5mitch says:

    chilly 51.2

  6. Battle Ground Brian says:

    08-19-2010 Oregon Temperature Extremes

    Warmest:
    High: 97 at Illinois Valley
    Low: 71 at Weatherby RA

    Coolest:
    High: 54 at Mt Hebo
    Low: 32 at McKenzie Pass & Crescent

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees at
    Prineville 4NW (90/39) & Cabin Lake (86/35)

  7. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 8/19/2010
    77.5°F
    57.7°F ◄– Interesting reversal of numbers there 🙂
    NE 8.7 mph at 5:00p

  8. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Looking at the FOG Satellite Imagery, we are not going to see widespread marine layer tomorrow morning.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=fog&size=2

    I see temperatures falling down well into the 40’s tonight areas away from the city.

    At Midnight: Its already 46 in Yacolt, 49 in Crawford.

    It was 48 degrees here July 17th and 18th for a low temp so this may be the coldest night in 4-6 weeks in some areas.

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    59 here with a chilly NW wind blowing.

    BTW I have been working on my winter forecast, its good for the PNW! I will try and post what I can in a few days.

  10. A chilly NW wind…

    59°

  11. Battle Ground Brian says:

    08-19-2010 BG Lake Stats — Low clouds broke out around 1:30pm after drizzle AM hours.

    High: 72.8 Low: 53.6 Rain: Trace

    Its turning out to be a very dry summer up here after that horribly wet spring (Thank you Mother Nature).

    I have had 0.01″ of rain in 48 days now.
    That 0.01″ was recorded back on August 7th…

  12. Battle Ground Brian says:

    PDX 00Z 8 Day GFS Forecast

    The latest forecast is pushing us up to near 90 middle of next week for a brief return to summer.

    I like this!!

    • Gordon (Near FVHS) says:

      I don’t. Bring on the rain and Fall temps.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Yeah Brian, it’s been so terribly long since we last saw 90s. What, two days?

      I hate being able to walk around outside in the middle of the afternoon with a comfortable breeze. I also despise not having pit-stains.

  13. Jeremy says:

    Thanks for the link! For you “Weather Matters” fans out there that wondered where Mr. Taylor went he has a relatively new blog. (Address in Mike’s post). For you noobs, George is, IMHO, the godfather of Oregon climate.

  14. Kyle says:

    While we are bored to tears here is an interesting article about cold Southern Cali with fruit not ripening and a glacier that is growing despite it braking off a huge piece.

    Temperatures well below average in Southern California
    9 Aug 10 – Fruits and vegetables not ripening.
    See Temps well below average in Southern California
    http://www.iceagenow.com/Temps_well_below_average_in_Southern_California.htm

    Actual News article: http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_15723011

    site iceagenow.com

    And the glacier which in the long term 50+ years is actually growing ever so slightly:

    Giant Iceberg Breaks off Growing – Growing! – Greenland Glacier
    12 Aug 10 – You’ve probably seen those articles about a huge ice island breaking off a Greenland glacier. Many of those articles are trying to blame global warming. But before you buy into that, please be aware that Petermann Glacier has been advancing for years.
    Giant Iceberg Breaks off Growing – Growing! – Greenland Glacier

    In site article: http://www.iceagenow.com/Giant_Iceberg_Breaks_Off_Growing–Growing-Greenland_Glacier.htm

    News link or links if you wanna call it that: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38600087?GT1=43001

    http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/aug/greenland080610.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petermann_Glacier

    *All the poor global warming propagandists brains explode from too many links that talk scientifically without political propagenda*

  15. Kyle says:

    Has anybody ever visted the east coast sister of this blog called Capitalweathergang? (which is now part of Washington Post)

    http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/01/frequent_questions.html

    • j in north Hazel Dell says:

      Capital Weather Gang was fun to watch last winter during their record-setting snow storm.

  16. Washington Observer says:

    My-oh-my.

  17. PaulO says:

    Guess we broke our dry spell huh? Just noticed this ‘official’ notice:

    OREGON REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 1100 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2010

    PORTLAND CLOUDY 60 56 86 CALM 30.07R 6HR MIN TEMP: 57; 6HR MAX TEMP: 60; 6HR
    PCP: 0.01;

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    At 1:40 PM Salem is starting to clear out with a temperature of 66.s degrees.

  19. Washington Observer says:

    Evidently Maupin in on fire alert.
    http://www.ktvz.com/news/24680254/detail.html

    • Garron near washington square says:

      No surprise there with all that lightening with the last storm. No doubt there will be numerous other fires that are still in the smoldering stage that will flare up in the next few days.

  20. Yevpolo1990 says:

    I am surprised no one is paying attention Sundays low…

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Ok, I’ll bite….

      “HOW LOW IS IT???” lol

    • Derek Hodges says:

      Looks like a few showers possible. I’m waiting until we get closer to see if the models gut it dry.

      BTW I will be moving to Provo Utah for school next Tuesday so I won’t be on as much but I will definitely check in from time to time.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      How low can you go?

    • Kyle says:

      That’s because it’s most likely going to happen unless we hype about it.

      We either don’t talk about it or hype about it which seems to be the case around here though no where near as bad as western and eastern forums in terms of (hype)

      If we don’t talk about the low we won’t cause my bad luck curse to flare up bringing the “near miss syndrome”.

  21. muxpux says:

    clouds starting to break up here in Longview, yay for blue patches, haha

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Looks like I will be last to clear today down here in East Clark Co. 63 and OVC at 12:55pm still

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’m starting to think most of the Portland Metro will stay relatively cloudy today.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Looking at satellite I would say 2pm breakout with highs around 70-72.

  22. PaulO says:

    501!
    🙂

  23. WEATHERDAN says:

    This winter 2010-2011 winter update was posted on the
    State of Oregon – Department of Agriculture by meteorologist Pete Parsons. Below is his winter weather outlook.

    Discussion/Forecast: Last winter’s moderate to strong El Niño ended during the spring, with sea surface
    temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rapidly cooling to below normal by the end of
    May. La Niña (cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean sea -surface temperatures) has
    developed, is forecast to strengthen this autumn and last at least through this coming winter.
    The Following predictions were based on historical weather data from the September – November
    periods in 1958, 1964, 1966, 1973, and 2007. La Niña conditions did not develop during all of
    those subsequent winters, so updates to these analog years is likely over the next couple of months .
    • Analog years exhibited a wide range of weather conditions, during the 3-month period, with
    no clear temperature trend.
    • By November, a strengthening La Niña would increase the chances for above normal
    precipitation & Cascade snowfall, as well as the threat of a windstorm (west) and low
    elevation snowfall.
    • If La Niña does strengthen and persist , then there is an elevated chance of significant
    western valley snow and/or flooding from December through February . Winter snow packs
    will likely exceed average with snow covering forested regions more days than usual.
    Pete Parsons – Meteorologist – Oregon Department of Forestry*
    * New Contact Information (503) 945-7448, pparsons@odf.state.or.us

    ! If La Niña becomes moderate to strong
    and persists through the winter:
    ! Expect above average mountain snow
    ! Above average low-elevation snow and
    valley rain, with an increased chance of
    valley snow and/or flooding
    ! Increased threat off windstorms (west)
    ! Increased threat off Arctic intrusions

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      One thing is for sure… The early forecasts have been nothing short of bullish for a wild winter.

    • W7ENK says:

      The big question is, will it all pan out? Or will Portland suffer from another winter of ‘Near Miss Syndrome”?

  24. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Interesting phenomenon this morning with the Drizzle

    PDX has had -RN or -DZ since 6:53am picking up about 0.02″ of precip. Meanwhile right across the river, VUO has had nothing. Looks like the NW wind plowing into the rising terrain south of the river is causing slight lift which is the reason for -DZ on the Oregon side.

    PDX OBS
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=PDX&num=48&raw=0

    VUO OBS
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KVUO&table=1&banner=off

    • umpire says:

      Coming into town this morning from NE Portland around 8:30, I had to use the intermittent windshield wipers until I got to downtown PDX, where there was and still is no drizzle or mist. Maybe the marine layer just following the Columbia and lifting over NE Portland?

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Most of the time the drizzle is East of I-205. The Tualatin Hills (West Hills) often shield downtown and points west from the morning drizzle.

  25. Battle Ground Brian says:

    12Z GFS – Looking seasonal next 16 days

    Average: 79.4 degrees next 16 days.

    Day #8 we bottom out with 850mb temps of +2C with showers possible. This trough lingers for a bit, then we get a la la land ridge with 850mb Temps of +22C around day #13/14 with East winds likely and maybe some low 90’s one more time around Sept 1.

    Looks like the roller coaster temps will continue.

  26. The latest GFS run showing some “actual” rain for Sunday. We could use it..

    58°

  27. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Mary’s Peak, the only mountain over 4,000ft in the coast range, is poking out of the marine layer right now west of Corvallis

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Mary’s peak is in Benton county I believe. That section of clearing is in Polk county that the arrow is pointing at.. But Mary’s peak is poking out of the clouds, but not nearly as much as the gap forming in polk county. Hopefully we will burn off the clouds quickly..

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      I climbed Mary’s peak rugged north side on my Mtn Bike about 10 years ago. That was a lot of fun.

  28. Karen in Camas says:

    Currently heavy misting here in Camas…very damp outside.

  29. k5mitch says:

    I wouldn’t call it rain but I like it…

  30. Damp this am…Still no recordable precip since July 2nd..

    57° under socked-in skies…

  31. Rich says:

    What’s up with rain overnight? Wet streets up here in Camas. Was the rain forecast?

  32. Kyle says:

    How’s the ULL doing that’s starting to spin?

    Should I assume no news is good news?

  33. Battle Ground Brian says:

    High: 77.1 Low: 55.7

  34. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 8/18/2010
    80.6°F High
    57.7°F Low
    SW 8.3 mph at 2:32p

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I’m pretty amazed how warm Milwaukie runs compared to nearby areas. PDX was 77 today, HIO was 77 and UAO (Aurora) was 76, and smack dab in the middle of that triangle Milwaukie was 81?

      Then you hit 100 two or three times during the heatwave, right? When neither of those three stations did.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yes, but I’m almost always within about a degree or two of the nearest ‘official-ish’ station, which is roughly a half mile to my SW. Sometimes warmer, sometimes cooler, but I wouldn’t consider that an outrageous disparity by any means.

    • W7ENK says:

      My 3 peak days from the heat wave were 98, 100, 99… in that order. PDX I believe was 95, 97, 97 on those same days? But I think the river has a slight cooling effect.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’ll bet if I had weather stations spread on the four corners of my property, which is 6.5 acres, the temp would vary more than 4 degrees.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Usually I don’t even report my temp because I know someone will split hairs and tell me it can’t be.

    • W7ENK says:

      One thing I forgot to mention…

      PDX = 11 miles
      HIO = 19 miles
      UAO = 16 miles

      FWIW, There’s a LOT of real estate between me and those locations.

  35. Kyle says:

    My Internet doesn’t have any thing about “auto complete* settings so I don’t know what you mean and I don’t know hwo to check waht version of IE Explorer I got/have.

    I also agree with you Jesse on balancing Brian’s “warm bias” as he wants us all to roast to death all summer like Redding. 🙂 😮

  36. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Rob, did you change your email adress? I just tried sending you something, and I got a failure notice sent back to me.

    • Kyle says:

      Sounds like it’s a good thing I haven’t asked Rob any weather questions on email in a long time or I’d have my flustered curse take over.

      YIKES!!!

  37. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Just got back from the Glenwood Church Disc Golf course in Brush Prairie where I can still vividly see a smoke plume from the larch mtn. fire. It has been burning for several days now on the south side.

    • vernonia1 says:

      off topic….Brian do you know about the 3rd best disc golf in the US? It is in North Plains 🙂

    • SilentReader says:

      excuse my naiveté but is disc golf what they used to call “Frisbee golf” .

      I am not a golfer but I know I have not seen the term Disc Golf before.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Yes, I am aware of Horning in Banks. They have 3 courses and one of them is lit up at nighttime.
      I have never been there.

      I also heard there is a nice 18 hole one at Stub Stewart St Park.

  38. N3EG says:

    Look closely out in the Pacific…
    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx?animate=true
    Is that another ULL spinning up where last week’s ULL started?

  39. Washington Observer says:

    The British Columbia fire situation is now concerned with a dry cold front moving through……

    Wildfire Newsletter – Cariboo Fire Centre – August 18, 2010 update
    by BC Forest Fire Info on Wednesday, August 18, 2010 at 4:34pm
    Fires of Note:

    Fire officials have serious concerns with a dry cold front that is moving through the Cariboo region today. This cold front will bring extreme winds (30-40 km/hr with gusts to 60 km/hr) moving from the northwest and pushing southeast across the Cariboo. Dry lightning is also associated with this cold front.

  40. Karl Bonner says:

    For whatever reason the “leave a response” link isn’t always showing up at the top of the page. You have to maneuver with the mouse a bit to find it.

    Now for my question. I see that the upcoming cool weekend still has forecast lows in the 53-55 area. What part of the metro area is this referring to – downtown, airport, or suburbs? If you had to guess, what kind of lows might we expect in the cold pockets, both north and south valley?

    I’m also curious about the graphics on the 7-Day. How cloudy are Sat and Sun supposed to be? If there’s a fair amount of sun and we still only get to 75, it probably will feel a bit like fall.

    Finally, I wonder if the forecast lows really are accurate. I’m not trying to doubt Mark’s authority on meteorology, but it’s not unusual for official forecasts to just follow the computer models without being adjusted for intuition. I’d think we have a good chance of seeing distinct radiational cooling this weekend if the skies are clear enough – the nights are now much longer than they were in late June.

  41. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Internet Explorer automatically saves my username and email without having to change the internet settings. I never used Firefox or Safari so I don’t know how to use those.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Far as I know as long as you do not clear/clean your cookies and temporary internet files your Name and E-mail will be stored. That goes for any Browser too.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      You also have to tell IE to store form information.

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