A Very Hot Northern Summer

Check out all those all-time high temperature records across Europe, Africa, and Asia!  Looks like somewhere around 15­-17 countries have set new records this summer.  Ukraine and Niger are both ties for the all-time highs.  The 128 degrees in Pakistan (if verified) will also be Asia’s new all-time high as well!  Clearly a very hot summer across the Eastern Hemisphere.  NCDC has not come out with their global wrap-up of July’s temperatures, but June was the warmest on record (130 year database).  My guess is that July will be too…we’ll see.

10pm Weather Update:  Not much has changed this evening…still looks hot with offshore flow Friday-Sunday.  Earlier runs today showed a trough moving on in over us early next week for a quick cooldown.  00z runs don’t show that so far.  But the GFS has been very unreliable this summer.  The new 00z is especially hot for early next week.  Hopefully we won’t see any “Belarusian Heat” anytime soon!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

116 Responses to A Very Hot Northern Summer

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    New 7 Day.
    http://www.kptv.com/wxmap/9430868/detail.html
    I see Mark is turning things up a notch and prolonging the 90’s. I would not be surprised that once we’re into this heat wave that we see it extended until Thursday or so.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      This is beginning to look like a true heat wave in every sense of the word.

    • Runrain says:

      Or words! (Sorry…)

    • chris s says:

      So the one time we need the darn models to be wrong they cant come through for us. It looks to be mighty uncomfortable starting friday, although i still feel this will end monday i think that is now just a full on wish:-) come on sw marine push i know you can do it :-).

    • Runrain says:

      Stephanies 7 day just broadcast shows 100 for Mon and Tues!!!

    • Derek Hodges says:

      The preview on my computer of this link shows some old arctic blast with snow and freezing rain..haha

      Anyway models aren’t backing down yet. Things are looking really hot, if Mark weren’t being a tad conservative on that forecast we would see some 100s on there. Lets hope that doesn’t happen! But at least its something to track.

    • Runrain says:

      The mobile version of the 7 day shows “only” 95 for Mon and Tue.

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Derek, Thats exactly what it showed for me to lol..

    • I wonder if the preview uses a cached version to speed things up.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      Mark updated again, two 100 degree days and lots of other hot ones, check it out.

    • Sifton says:

      100×2!!! YEA!!!!!!!!!

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      The preview shows cold arctic blast with highs around 30f for a few days with some snow/ZR during the weekend.. I wish.. Then when you click on the link you get the upcoming weekend with 90s and 100s next week geez this sucks.

    • Joshua says:

      I was hoping that we wouldn’t see one of these ”death ridges” this year. I honestly wouldn’t mind too much if I had central air, but without it, it really just makes life miserable.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah I agree, Joshua. We only have a 10000btu wall A/c unit and trust me it helps a lot for the main part of the house, living room, and kitchen, but it does not help the bedrooms. Every night the house will warm and I do not look forward to that.

  2. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Vancouver’s average high today drops to 78 today, from 79 yesterday. We are also on day 51 since summer began, and have approx 39 days left until fall. I haven’t looked up the exact date of summer/fall so bare with me 😉

  3. Runrain says:

    I’ll be in Lakeview Friday night so I should have a pretty good viewing opportunity to watch the Perseid shower, I would think. Not many city lights over there!

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Question….

    How is the upper ridge supposed to build over the region tonight and tomorrow when it is clearly retrograding offshore?
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
    You can clearly see the block offshore moving west slowly and persistent northerly flow coming around it into the PNW sending energy at times with it. I don’t know, but to me I don’t see the pattern evolving as the NWS and models indicate.

    I’m sure I am out to lunch on this(Popeye’s?)

  5. W7ENK says:

    FWIW, the highest officially recorded wind associated with that massive thunderstorm in Estonia on Sunday was 56 m/s, or 125 mph!!! Just look at the structure…

    Good God, that thing was a monster! Too bad they don’t have a public radar… 😕

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      What were the High temperatures on Sunday there?

      Are they getting 95-100 like much of Russia?

    • W7ENK says:

      They were. In Tallinn, which is right on the Baltic Sea, the temp was 35C, but it was as high as 40C in some inland areas. Imagine this thing rolling over that kind of heat… no wonder it was so bad!

      At least their heat waver is over now.

      Could we be next???

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Hmmmm Erik, I suppose anything is possible. Are you referring to some type of abrupt and large-scale pattern change with near global implications? The heatwave in eastern Europe/Russia was so massive and long lasting that it was its own entity so to speak and as it breaks I think downstream it could cause quite a dramatic to extreme change rippling eastward through Asia then across the Pacific. Perhaps we’re beginning to see this? It is merely speculation from me at this point.

    • W7ENK says:

      Merely my attempt at wishcasting… though honestly, I don’t wish for 125 mph winds! However, a scary mesocyclone with lots and lots and lots and LOTS of lightning would be great! 🙂

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Agreed.

    • W7ENK says:

      I can’t seem to dredge up any reports of large hail from that storm, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if someone, somewhere got hailstones upwards of 5cm.

  6. Battle Ground Brian says:

    06Z GFS output for KTTD

    Interesting how the GFS is discounting the approaching upper low early next week. It is showing 100’s while the actual forecast is calling for 80-85. Will be interesting to see what happens in that Mon-Wed time frame.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Oops I meant to sat 12Z on that run…

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      *say.. arg!! I wish we could edit our own posts for typos on here.

    • DEL X V says:

      Good question…the hot weather could linger over much of the State…..What’s the odds that Red Flag warnings be unfurlled this weekend for all the campers?

    • Jim in N. Tabor says:

      What’s the GFS and where do you find it ? I see you folks talking about it a lot so I was just curious.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      here is a link to KTTD output.

      http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

      *disclaimer, don’t believe everything you see.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      you can take this for what it’s worth. latest GFS on COLA/IGES has hot weather all next week. And IPS Meteostar has Salem at 82 today, 88 on Thursday the 12th, 98 on Friday the 13th, 100 on Saturday the 14th, 101 on Sunday the 15th, 103 on Monday the 16th, 104 on Tuesday the 17th, and 96 on Wednesday the 18th. It then drops down to the 80’s. I’m not sure in the validity of this forecast but it’s out there.

  7. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Seems to me the 06Z while extending the hot weather is pushing the truly hot temps 22+ and higher further back in the forecast.

    The GFS isn’t waffling on the max temps is it? 😉

    I’m going with highs in the low 90’s by the time this heatwave is over.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Look at hour 240:

      850mb temps of +2. Snow at Timberline Lodge?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That would be pretty cool if it where to verify. Alas, the 12Z has already discarded the thought. I’m just looking forward to 850mb temps dropping below 10+

  8. Battle Ground Brian says:

    06Z Output for KTTD

    Really bizarre roller coaster next week.

    102 high early week and 58 high next friday?

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    All of the new models this morning still show a hot prolonged heat spell.

  10. …Let us not forget the silver lining of the “death ridge” pushing in….Thursday night should be the peak of the Perseids, and it looks to be clear….
    http://spaceweather.com/
    With that in mind, For a prize of unlimited cyber ice……
    “Have you seen the stars tonight…….”
    Hint: the album finished 2nd in Hugo votes in ‘ought71….

  11. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) at work by Sunset High elev 280' says:

    The 06z still has some 100’s, but not as outrageous as the 00z.

    So Mark, if the 850mb temp and 500mb heights support triple digit temps, then how can the 2m temps be off? Wouldn’t the whole model be reading warm? Or are we talking about a degree or two?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I bet it’s just off be a few degrees. I had noticed it last week when the GFS 2M temp kept showing something like 85-88 for PDX the next few afternoons, even though we had a marine layer in place and highs only made it to right around 80.

  12. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    00z EURO prolongs the hot spell/heat wave until Friday now.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Awe, it doesn’t even tell you when your message gets moderated at random anymore??? It’s like my post just vanished into the ether of the internets… 😦

    Hopefully it appears by morning.

  14. Battle Ground Brian says:

    52.8 degrees and clear now. Should see some 40’s by morning out here.

  15. W7ENK says:

    I just had a conversation with a friend of mine in Estonia. He told me about this massive freak storm they got on Sunday evening. I guess the storm came up out of nowhere.

    Here, this will just be easier:

    Priit Ivanov: we had major storm in sunday. I will send you some links with pictures

    Erik Holm: lightning???

    Priit Ivanov: http://f.postimees.ee/f/2010/08/08/414901t41h0fe6.jpg
    thats over Tallinn. the storm clouds came in in minutes

    Erik Holm: oh, weird!!!

    Priit Ivanov: click on the pictures – http://www.postimees.ee/?id=297200
    the wind was 37 Mps

    http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/delfi-vaike-maarjas-vaata-kuidas-taastub-tormis-enim-rasida-saanud-alevik.d?id=32511563&l=fplead#

    Erik Holm: Wow, that’s like a tornado cloud! We call that a supercell thunderstorm or a mesocyclone

    Priit Ivanov: if you scroll down there are pictures of väike maarja, close to rakvere
    basically what happened, was that the extremely hot 35C and cold air masses got together mixed with the smoke from russia.

    my father drove home from peipsi and in viitna there was such a storm that it blew trees over the road and the cars were all standing because the wipers couldnt handle the rain and the roads had 20cm of water on them
    http://www.ohtuleht.ee/galerii/pildigalerii/2626#1

    Erik Holm: My goodness! When was this???

    Priit Ivanov: sunday at 19.00-21.00
    the ligtning struck basically in every second. it was like a nightclub in Tallinn

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Ah yes, those nightclubs in Tallinn…I remember those long nights in my youth during my wild Estonia trips…

    • …Mark Nelsen cuttin’ loose in Estonia…..scary to think about!!! 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Hey now… The first time I was there in the summer of 1999, Tallinn had Europe’s #3 best rated night club!

      I shared this because the pictures of the storm were incredible! I never would have thought a supercell could mature THAT much, that far north… I don’t believe they have ever had a thunderstorm of that magnitude before.

      The weather Gods are restless! Who knows, maybe we’ll come out of our heat wave, or “death ridge” the same way??? Timmy would be in Seventh Heaven! 😆

  16. Battle Ground Brian says:

    August 10 2010 Oregon Weather Extremes

    Warmest:

    High: 94 at Heppner Jct.
    Low: 64 at Rufus

    Coolest:

    High:52 at Mt Hebo and Timberline Lodge
    Low: 32 at Bend Watershed and Crescent

    Largest Diurnal Temperature Change:

    45 degree change at Cabin Lake (78/33)

  17. Yevpolo1990 says:

    I wonder if that heat will ever mode away now from Eastern Europe, mets there don’t know when the good new will ever come…

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I hope 00z is wrong. I mean that’s just too hot even for hot weather fans. Besides I see no convective hopes. The ULL just hangs offshore and the ridge remains amplified with the axis right over us. = Nasty.

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      Me too! I don’t mind some heat (after all, this IS summer) but this would be too much for most of us. Hopefully, we’re not going to have to pay for our relatively mild season so far…..

      58°…Might be the coolest temp we see for quite a while!

  19. chris s says:

    Also realize the patterns we have been in all summer just makes it hard to believe we see that big of a deviation at this point. I think this will be a repeat of the little july heat wave we had so i would be really suprised if we see more than 97 to 98 most places as most the models still show 850 temps maxing at +23. Its pretty hard to hold off that sw marine push for too long. . Well lets hope so at least. 🙂

  20. Battle Ground Brian says:

    00Z GFS @ KTTD 16 Day output just came out

    ******************MAJOR HEATWAVE POSSIBLE*********

    106 degrees on Tuesday? Wow, this is a shock and simply unbelievable.

    7 days above 90…….

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I’m guessing the 06Z goes away from a major heatwave.

      Either way I’m ready for October please!

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      This may be the biggest heat wave of this summer. Starting to look like we might get a couple 100-degree days here in PDX. Let’s see how this pans out!

    • chris s says:

      Ya i would say the 00z is really out there. There really is no logical reason why we would get hotter past monday and pretty sure all other models as well as 6z will show that this run is just a crazy anomaly. Its gonna be pretty comical this winter if this is what we can expect out of the gfs can hardly wait. 🙂

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I just read a technical notice about the 2meter temps on the upgraded GFS (since July 28th)…the main point is “watch out!”. Apparently they have been reading too hot, which would be the IGES data you are looking at.

      “NCEP is aware of the 2-m temperature bias in the upgraded GFS model and will correct it as soon as possible. The note below was provided by NCEP’s John Ward.

      Since the T574 GFS implementation excessive T2Ms in the Southwest have been noted. During the testing and evaluation we did not key in on the potential severity of the T2M Bias in the southwest. We are testing a change to the Land-Surface model that should greatly reduce the increase that was just introduced.”

    • Its fairly obvious that these 00z numbers are inflated. Anytime I have seen triple digits on here lately I have not bought into it personally.

      I think as usual your 7-day is going to be spot on Mark.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Be afraid…be very afraid……

    • chris s says:

      Geez that would take away all the fun for the upcoming winter if they fix it. I was looking forward to seeing a nice -15c or so 850 temp give us 70 degree highs in december.lol 🙂

  21. Battle Ground Brian says:

    00Z RUN is out— 8-day GFS Numerical Guidance for PDX — Extracted data below:

    Looks like we may have gone from 3 days to 5 days in a row in the low to mid 90’s if this pans out.

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    The perhaps misnamed “death ridge” looks stronger than ever on the 00z GFS. It shows approximately +21 850mb temps Fri, +22 Sat, +23 Sun, +24 Mon, +26 Tues, and thats out to 180hrs. Anyway..thats what it shows.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      Oh, and a +25-26 on Wed too, that would be interesting but I expect the models to shave it down as it gets closer.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Thats awesome Derek!!

      cant wait to see extracted data from 00z..

  23. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    OK Larry, last night you gave us a good one. Tonite I ask the question which band said “time is too short for those who laugh”……
    The winner gets free ice cubes this weekend!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hope you don’t stick another song in my head, I still have “Fire” on continuous replay.

    • Runrain says:

      OMG – me too! And now its been replaced with “Heat Wave”!! Just don’t get CCR’s “Bad Moon Risin'” in your head. It will never go away! (“Looks Like We’re In For Nasty Weather…”)

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      Is it not “Beautiful Day”?

    • ….It’s a Beautiful Day, Time is, and the song also contains the line “And there’s a new day’s sun”, which apparently we are going to get plenty of the next few days!!!!….
      Have to admit, finding a couple IABD shows for download a couple weeks ago helped with this one!!!

      FYI: David LaFlamme is still out there playing these days………

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      THAT,S RIGHT! Now go grab that bag of ice!
      Pretty easy. I guess the woman singer, Patti Santos was killed in a car crash a few years ago. She had a sweet voice.

    • …methinks one bag of ice is just a tease this weekend!!!…

  24. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    I’ll take what we’ve been getting here thank you…

    63°

  25. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hope we don’t take part in that party.

    • W7ENK says:

      I wonder why we haven’t taken part in that party?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We might get burned W7.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’m imagining this massive slug of hot air that’s been sitting over Eastern Europe and Russia, sweltering, baking them for weeks now with unprecedented heat, it’s finally let go and is headed our way. Is it possible that because of the unusual nature of the pattern over there, our models just flat don’t see the reality of it coming? They’re onto it a little, but they just don’t understand the magnitude of what’s on it’s way???

      Something to think about, anyway…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Can’t be too careful when contemplating the potential for getting cooked under a hot death ridge, Hahaah!

  26. Rich says:

    I’ll take 62 degrees and p/cloudy.

  27. Brad H says:

    first?

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