Forest Fire Smoke Overhead

A large area of smoke from wildfires in British Columbia has drifted down over us during the last 24 hours.  As a result it looks like September right now for those of you that aren’t stuck under the low cloud cover.  A sickly yellow-orange sun and very hazy sky.  NESDIS tracks the smoke and here’s the image confirming where it came from.   I also included the visible image from this morning.  You can see it’s a narrow area of northwest Oregon, but much thicker up over Eastern Washington..

I’m on vacation this week…kind of a quiet one.  Today’s job is pouring footings for a chicken coop (kids want chickens), maybe a quick bike ride?  A quick afternoon nap?  Can’t decide yet.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

654 Responses to Forest Fire Smoke Overhead

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good morning.

    6z has the upper low a tad further west, but still not in an optimal location/track to produce storms west of the Cascades. It also looks downright hot into the extended. Let’s see if 12z is kind to us putting that upper low where it should be! Off of the SW Oregon/N. California coast!

    Off to Fishing.

  2. W7ENK says:

    So, “POOF”… just like that, the storms are gone? Not gonna happen???

    See, that’s what I mean.

    FML! 😡

    • Derek Hodges says:

      Maybe instead of being a pro met I should go into the models section and make a accurate one. 😛

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I know 😆 but nothing is set in stone(When it is ever especially 3-5 days away from a possible event) 12z models could just as easily revert back to fun goodies of fun goodness.

    • chris s says:

      Ya you might make more money doing that Derek because the person who comes up with a model that can get something right beyond about 3 to 5 days is gonna be a rich person thats for sure 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Stay optimistic, its always a roll of the dice, sooner or later they will roll our way!

  3. PaulB/Eugene says:

    5-6 days out it looks like some storms over higher Cascades of OR, mostly S and Central, perhaps a bit of drift toward west side. Beyond that it…gets hot. That 24-27 850mb isotherm is right over the Willamette Valley. Will believe it when I see it…but look way to the north…over the arctic…an air mass with -9C at 850mb….that is the future Dec 28 single digits and snow set up

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Well it’s either going to be very warm with a chance of storms, or HOT with storms farther to the south and east.

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Hope lies with the 12z and that it brings back t-storms.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      Unless something new forms that digs the trough west I would say we are seeing a trend. Somehow the NAM caught it first, gfs followed, probably euro follows tonight.

  5. Kyle says:

    😕

    So is anybody looking forwards to this winter when they will predict that low pressure off of Canada giving us a WSW for 6-10 inches of valley snow and then the low will move too close to the coast line which will gives us a sloppy 2 inches that melts the next day when Zonal flow arrives?

    😦

    • chris s says:

      ya but even better is judging by how bad the gfs model has been this summer i am looking forward to seeing the crazy -40c 850 temps for a week straight than showing a big low slamming into the high from the southwest for days of freezing rain 🙂 go la la land..

  6. High 81°
    Low 62°

    Morning clouds and afternoon sun. No rain.

  7. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    New GFS run out to 114 hrs doesn’t have the cutoff low.
    Starting to remind me of snow forecasts. Don’t blink or its gone.

  8. Derek Hodges says:

    And just like that its gone, 00z GFS moves it inland instead of offshore, no more storm threat! lol

    • Derek Hodges says:

      I’m sure Chris is waiting to jump on us. I just report what the models say, they said storm..and now they don’t. So thats my revised forecast, no thunderstorms.

    • chris s says:

      not true Derek like i said before i just stick with forecasting what usually happens in whatever scenario we are discussing. thats why i dont put much stock in the models for forecasting the valley cause they are so inconsistent. But hey its still 2 to 3 days away so you never know

  9. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    No one on this blog every expected every day convection in the PNW. We are all aware that that’s even impossible for Florida.

    Now lets be nice guys, Rob was only feeding instability numbers from the SREF model and calling the “possibilities” of storms occurring. 🙂

  10. Ken says:

    +22MB in LaLa land!

    • chris s says:

      Is that like how much free space you have on your ipod or something 🙂 lol you probably mean +22c 850 temp ? If so la la land shows like +25 and higher all the time for like past 2 months now so 22 is pretty low the gfs is slipping :-).

    • Ken says:

      Thanks chris. Appreciate your insight.

    • Ken says:

      That is very true. How can I acess the Euro? I can only find gfs and nam. Hopefully I have enough mb to download it. 🙂

    • chris s says:

      Ken i hope you dont think i was being rude i knew what you meant by 22 mb i was just trying to be funny my bad if you took it the wrong way never meant anything by it. You can access the euro off of marks weather is where i look at it.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Ken,

      EURO
      http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
      00z: 12:00 AM
      12z: 12:00 PM

    • Ken says:

      Thanks Rob. And no chris I didn’t think you were being rude so no worries there. The response I left after was more in defense of Rob from other comments left on theg from other users. Thank you for caring enough to post that though.

    • Ken says:

      Nevermind. I didnt copy it right but very nice 500mb vorticity on Tuesday late evening/night. 18z GFS

  11. W7ENK says:

    So, should I keep my batteries charged on my mew HD camera??? I’m just waiting for the first opportunity to capture some night-time lightning in HD!!! 🙂

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Well it looks like the 00z NAM screws us out of thunderstorms but that model is usually sucky anyway. I will only be concerned if the gfs or euro changes.

    • W7ENK says:

      Of course it does! 😦

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yeah the NAM isn’t the best on certain things, but let’s hope this is not a trend. We know it certainly could be. Heck, look where we live! We’re infamous for busts.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Lol the NAM sucks, unless it shows a great pattern, then all of a sudden it is the best model!

      Pretty sunset coming up.

  13. Ken says:

    BOOMERS BABY!!! WOHOOOO!

  14. Karl Bonner says:

    Questions about summer humidity. Usually Eugene gets a few days each summer where the dewpoint rises into the low 60s F. What are typical summer dewpoints like in southern Europe? What about the mid-Atlantic coast of the US?

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      I think parts of the Mediterranean are similar to the gulf, with dewpoints in the 70s a lot. Mid-Atlantic often features dewpoints in the 70s, and sometimes even 80s.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yeah, totally different latitude, totally different terrain, totally different influence, totally different dynamic… totally different altogether. Honestly, no comparison can really be drawn between Southern Europe and the PNW… Maybe Southern California or Northern Mexico?

  15. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Couple thoughts:

    With the first upper low (this week) there will be excessive low clouds, but that should matter less the farther N you go (SW Washington is better off in this scenario, as mid layer instability should be good enough that it won’t matter what is going on down below. However, from Salem on southward, no luck in my opinion..mid layer instability will be less and there will zippo help from the surface…just gloomy August mornings with some afternoon sun breaks.

    The second upper low at day 10 looks better but that is 10 days out and cutoff lows are not worth talking about so far in the future.

    • chris s says:

      Oh no we are gonna get blasted everyday with thunderstorms dont you know because we average like what 60 to 70 t storms a year right ..lol 🙂 I will admit this type of pattern is the best chance for the valley to get a thunderstorm but lets not get carried away and call it defcon 5 like some people on this board do even mark just said small chance on his weather forecast. I am sticking with my forecast of nothing coming from this beyond a stray shower or 2.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      No one is calling it defcon 5. If we begin to see the SPC discuss our area, if shear is projected to increase, or if models show a strong vort max/lobe rotating northward around the upper low, THEN you will see the it. Again what’s wrong with showing any enthusiasm or excitement for possibilities?

    • chris s says:

      Rob there is nothing wrong with that. My beef has always been with the fact that you tend to read too much into the numbers and models sometimes. I have lived here all my life and have a pretty good knowledge of the weather that we get around here and its very tough to get active summer weather unless you get everything adding up. I think we just differ in the fact that you tend to root for that kind of weather so you tend to make predictions based on that bias. I on the other hand dont care for that type of weather and since we rarely get it i tend to pretty much write off any t storm forecasts until it looks like its more than a 50% chance. I hope i have not come across rude or anything i never meant to just trying to get my point of they across is all:-)

  16. Derek Hodges says:

    18z isn’t finished running yet but its output shows thunderstorms rolling into the valley each day tues-fri so far, I am sure it will show more on Saturday too. Exciting.

    • Derek Hodges says:

      yeah, sat it shows us getting blasted again and then whats more is it shows another cut off low moving in with a continued s-se flow for maybe some more. We will see about that though.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      I hope not cuz that causes melt on the White Glacier on Mt Hood which causes the Deschutes to get murky and milky . And I’m gonna be floating all next week and fishing for steelhead. Last year the same thing happened and made the fly fishing horrible.

    • Kyle says:

      Not trying to be rude or push people’s buttons but…………………………………………………………………………………………

      OH MY GOD WELCOME TO THE PNW WHERE WE HAVE T-STORMS FOR A WHOEL WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (EXCLAMATION MARK OVERLOAD) 😮

      (pants for breath)
      Everybody panic and horde all the local grocery stores as you don’t know if they will be accesable.

      Oh wait I was thinking of the epic snowstorms of this winter that will be an epic BUST which everyting turns to sloppy 35F inversion rain.

      *beep* I can’t use anymore exclamation marks as I went over my limit for the day.

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