Some Vacation Time

Real quiet weather the next few days…the only forecast issue is how much marine cloudiness works it’s way inland each day.  Generally we should see an increase through Saturday, then a decrease early next week.  No sign of showers west of the Cascades.

I’ll be on vacation again for a week or so.  Next work day is Sunday, August 8th.  Keep discussing weather on this thread.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

314 Responses to Some Vacation Time

  1. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    The death ridge is coming. Prepare now.

  2. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Holy… I pray the 06Z is completely out to lunch… 5 days with 850mb temps running 25 to 29 degrees Celsius. That ladies and gentleman really is a death ridge.

    GFS has been trying like heck to get a death ridge into the picture. Fortunately it is all out in la la land still.

    I think I’ll start watching the Euro and GEM more often! 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Might as well get cooked by a hot death ridge while we wait for the Siberian express to develop.

  3. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The sun set in Barrow this morning at 1:49 and rose again at 2:50. This is their first sunset in months. Tomorrow they lose 41 minutes of daylight.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Have to get it dark up there in order to build up the cold air necessary for the life threatening events on schedule for this winter. Can’t wait.

  4. Kyle says:

    Anybody know of any south wind events in the summertime around here?

    Wind gusts 30mph or higher ?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      This time of year it’s tough to get wind events period. I don’t recall any real south wind events. I would think any significant wind in the summer would be out of the east or west.

  5. Battle Ground Brian says:

    I did some investigating and the smoke is for sure coming from fires in the interior areas of British Columbia.

    http://www.cbc.ca/bc/features/wildfires/2010.html

  6. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Looking considerably cooler next weekend on the latest GFS run, even a shower or two thrown in…We could use some rain.

    62°

  7. W7ENK says:

    YAY, #300!!! 😛

    Sorry…

    • Kyle says:

      WOO HOOOOOOO!!!! 🙂 You have won the grand prize!!

      A free summtertime south wind gale event with free power outages galore!

  8. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Measured 0.10″ of rain today…of course, this may be because I remounted my weather station on a new tripod today. 🙂 Brother and dad both helped that was nice!

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha!!! I sprayed water in mine while I was out watering my veggies yesterday out of sheer boredom… after only about a minute, it registered almost 4 inches of “precipitation”. I guess my shower wand puts out a LOT of water when you stick it right up “in your face”… 😆

  9. Yevpolo1990 says:

    the sun is spectacular!

  10. High 79
    Low 47

    Marine layer burned off during the noon hour.

  11. Muxpux says:

    Wow, the sun is super orange/red from the high clouds/smoke. Before I knew it I just spent 5 minutes staring right at it, mezmorized, haha

  12. Battle Ground Brian says:

    18Z GFS @ TTD

    Nice and warm like early August should be (86.3 average)

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      The way you’d like early August to be. There’s no way it “should” be. And if you want a 16-day period to average 86 degrees for the high in the late Summer you probably shouldn’t be living here of all places.

      Personally I’d like to see it around 75 every day with some sort of rain maybe once a week. Luckily the new GFS has a big warm bias from what I here. The EURO looks seasonable to cool through day ten.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      *from what I hear

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      I am aware that the NCEP 6-14 day does not support the GFS solution.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Jesse, relax, you’ll get your wet, gray days soon enough. August is for heat. Nasty side slamming, dusty, dry heat. It opens the pores so the rains can soak in so much better.

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry to say Jesse, “but if you want a 16-day period to average” “around 75 every day with some sort of rain maybe once a week”, then maybe “you probably shouldn’t be living here of all places”, either.

      Hate to break it to you, but this is our dry season. Average High temp this time of year is 81 degrees. Typically, the only precip we see this time of year comes from the rare ‘stray albino donkey’… which seems to be exceptionally rare this year.

      It’s disappointing, I know. 😕

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I support Jesse’s preference of coolant occasionally wet. Not all of us like hot & dry.

  13. SeaChange says:

    Anyone know where this high level smoke is coming from? I can see it on the visible imagery drifting over Western WA and Northwest Oregon, but I can’t trace its origin. Making for some interesting hues to the light outside though…reminds me of 2008 when we kept getting smoke from all those fires over Norcal.

  14. Karl Bonner says:

    I REALLY hope we get payback for the cool May and June with a hot September and October. What are the long-range models saying about early fall? Certainly by now somebody must have seen them – any hope for a strong Indian summer this year???

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      July was also cool, btw. At least up in the Portland area.

      With a strong La Nina developing I would expect a chilly Fall.

  15. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Space Weather News for August 1, 2010
    http://spaceweather.com

    GLOBAL ERUPTION: During the early hours of August 1st, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a complex global disturbance on the Earth-facing side of the sun. Most of the sun’s northern hemisphere was involved in the event, which included a long-duration C3-class solar flare, a “solar tsunami,” and a massive filament eruption. As a result of these blasts, a coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading toward Earth. High-latitude geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the cloud arrives a few days hence. Check http://spaceweather.com for movies and updates.

  16. Kyle says:

    Lots and LOTS of blue skies galore.

    73.5F and we are usually the last to clear out the gunk except for East Portland.

  17. Kyle says:

    I may be wrong but I don’t think in the entire operation of this blog we have EVER had 26C 850mb temps.

    That would be astounding! 😮

    • chris s says:

      we did last year kyle during the heat wave:) correct me if i am wrong somebody but i think we had as high as 27 ?

  18. chris s says:

    whats up with the gfs lately it seems to be spitting out some numbers that dont make a whole lot of sense. For instance a 18degree 850 temp shows us getting to 94 one day and than a 26degree 850 temp shows us getting to 90! I notice its been spitting out numbers that really dont add up for about the past week.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Good post. Yeah per viewing the 12z GFS model run I don’t see the 90’s, yet the extracted data spits out a lot of warmth.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I heard somewhere that the new GFS has a warm bias. I guess, if that is true then we won’t be teased quite as bad this winter.

    • chris s says:

      i think it may have more of a cool bias in the stuff over a week out. Something tells me that a 26 degree 850 temp would put us in the 105 range and not struggling to reach 90. But one thing for sure is its does not seem to be a upgrade in accuracy over previous gfs model that it replaced.

  19. W7ENK says:

    There’s one lone random lightning strike in the last 12 hours down by Salem… when did that happen? I wonder is someone hit a pole near one of the lightning sensors? It happens. 😕

  20. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Partly sunny at times here the past 30 minutes. The marine layer appears much shallower than yesterday, at least in specific locations.

    In fact running the Visible Imagery Loop
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1 (Click ‘ZOOM’ once over PDX to really see features in greater detail.)
    Lots of holes and thin spots in the marine layer particularly over Multnomah County. You can also see what appears to be some type of small mesoscale feature over Clark County as well as another down near Polk County. They almost remind me of eddy lows or the swirls you’d find down off the southern California Coast. Other locations the marine deck looks more prominent and you can definitely see it is lapping up against the Foothills, so not sure some areas burn off before 1-2 PM. It does seem possible to break out into the sun before that time over Multnomah County.

  21. Jim in N. Tabor says:

    Looks like a real quiet week all around Oregon this week.

  22. RobWaltemate says:

    When are we going to see the sun here on the Long Beach coast? Ugh! I am turning into a seethough jellyfish!

  23. Kyle says:

    *turns off the blog room lights*

  24. Kyle says:

    59.2F and clouds from the NW with the moon rising towards the east at the same time. 😮

  25. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 7/31/2010
    72.4°F High
    56.8°F Low
    S 10.1 mph at 4:39pm

    Kind of a cool finish to July, but I guess that’s to be expected this summer, huh?

  26. Yevpolo1990 says:

    Looks like some showers are coming in from the north.

  27. Kyle says:

    Why am I so South Wind event starved?

  28. Kyle says:

    Would Silverton survive a 32mb south wind event?

    What would Salem’s airport probably record for the highest gust?

    • W7ENK says:

      Let’s see… the max EUG-PDX gradient during the Columbus Day Storm in October 1962 was +13.7mb, which resulted in a peak wind gust of 90 mph at Salem. 32mb is roughly 2.34 times the gradient of that storm, so without doing like logarithmic fancy math or anything, I think it would be safe to assume that this might produce a peak wind gust at Salem 2.34 times stronger, or 211 mph = HOLY CRAP!!! Batten down the hatches, man! We’ve just hit Category 7 and a half! 😆

  29. W7ENK says:

    How sad… I’m smelling fireplace smoke outside. It wasn’t really that cold today, was it? I’m still comfy in my shorts and a T-shirt!

  30. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Coastal Radar

    Looks like the Langley Hill site is the best pick for the site.

    Warning, this PDF is 32 mb. Now I know where all of our tax dollars go 🙂

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/washington_coast_doppler_radar/Final_ESS-EA_June_2010_for_website.pdf

  31. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Surprised to see some levity in the NWS forecast discussion this eve.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      .LONG TERM…NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS…SEE SHORT TERM. OK…JUST KIDDING THERE…BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
      LINGERING OVER THE PACIFIC NW.

      😆

  32. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Check out the outflow from the storms near Yakima…

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?pdt_n0r+/2h/

  33. High 78
    Low 52

    Marine layer not completely gone until around 2pm.

  34. Kyle says:

    Actually it would be more like

    TSB59 for the 11-12pm report and THEN the details.

  35. Kyle says:

    Guys: If you look at the METAR report for 11pm (wherever that is) there will ususally be a (remarks) section which may say

    DIST LIG 11:00PM and the type of cloud and the direction of the thunderstorm.

  36. Karl Bonner says:

    Summer doldrums…not really hot but definitely no sign of autumn in the air yet (thank God/dess). Personally I’d rather have a little extra heat for the plants’ sake, even if it’s a bit more uncomfortable. Either dry (PM dewpoints below 54F) or lightly muggy (dewpoints 54-60) is fine by me. Both dry heat and semi-humid heat have their own unique aesthetic qualities to be appreciated.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      By a “little extra heat” I mean highs 85-92 in the valley with lows mid 50s in the cool spots, near 60 in the heat islands. Enough to make tomatoes, peppers and most of the Mediterranean or warm-temperate type plants happy.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I have recently planted fig and cherry trees, both of which have shown signs of increased happiness since the cool down.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Karl, I’m willing to bet we heat up again. Mid August into Sept. Then the forest fires.

    • W7ENK says:

      Speaking of fruit trees, my avocado has gone absolutely WILD this summer. With the wet beginning and the hot couple weeks in the middle, there is so much new growth, it’s insane! She’s pushing about 10 feet by now, too. There won’t be any indoor wintering this year… which worries me with all this apocalyptic winter talk as of late. I’m going to have to figure something out before too long… 😕

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      That tree is for sure having a good time W7ENK.

  37. W7ENK says:

    *whispers* It’s so quiet in here…

    *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets*
    *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets*

  38. Battle Ground Brian says:

    82 , sunny, and breezy here in The Dalles right now.. Huge thunderheads to the north of me east of Mt. Adams.

  39. Cliff says:

    We’ve got breaking clouds in sandy
    clear skies 1/2 mile east of sandy

  40. W7ENK says:

    ♪♫♪ “Sunshine on my shoulder makes me happyyyyyyy!” ♫♪♫

    Finally, the marine layer is burning off. 🙂

  41. Yevpolo1990 says:

    I am sure some of you may know the answer to this question, but I will ask it anyways. How is the lift index measured?

  42. muxpux says:

    man, picked a great day to take the boat out. has to be the one day we probably wont burn off.

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