Real quiet weather the next few days…the only forecast issue is how much marine cloudiness works it’s way inland each day. Generally we should see an increase through Saturday, then a decrease early next week. No sign of showers west of the Cascades.
I’ll be on vacation again for a week or so. Next work day is Sunday, August 8th. Keep discussing weather on this thread.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
The death ridge is coming. Prepare now.
Holy… I pray the 06Z is completely out to lunch… 5 days with 850mb temps running 25 to 29 degrees Celsius. That ladies and gentleman really is a death ridge.
GFS has been trying like heck to get a death ridge into the picture. Fortunately it is all out in la la land still.
I think I’ll start watching the Euro and GEM more often! 🙂
Might as well get cooked by a hot death ridge while we wait for the Siberian express to develop.
The sun set in Barrow this morning at 1:49 and rose again at 2:50. This is their first sunset in months. Tomorrow they lose 41 minutes of daylight.
Have to get it dark up there in order to build up the cold air necessary for the life threatening events on schedule for this winter. Can’t wait.
Anybody know of any south wind events in the summertime around here?
Wind gusts 30mph or higher ?
This time of year it’s tough to get wind events period. I don’t recall any real south wind events. I would think any significant wind in the summer would be out of the east or west.
I did some investigating and the smoke is for sure coming from fires in the interior areas of British Columbia.
http://www.cbc.ca/bc/features/wildfires/2010.html
Was wondering about that. Sure made purdy sunset tho!
Looking considerably cooler next weekend on the latest GFS run, even a shower or two thrown in…We could use some rain.
62°
YAY, #300!!! 😛
Sorry…
WOO HOOOOOOO!!!! 🙂 You have won the grand prize!!
A free summtertime south wind gale event with free power outages galore!
Measured 0.10″ of rain today…of course, this may be because I remounted my weather station on a new tripod today. 🙂 Brother and dad both helped that was nice!
Hahaha!!! I sprayed water in mine while I was out watering my veggies yesterday out of sheer boredom… after only about a minute, it registered almost 4 inches of “precipitation”. I guess my shower wand puts out a LOT of water when you stick it right up “in your face”… 😆
the sun is spectacular!
High 79
Low 47
Marine layer burned off during the noon hour.
Wow, the sun is super orange/red from the high clouds/smoke. Before I knew it I just spent 5 minutes staring right at it, mezmorized, haha
Yah, me too. I even took a few pics.
It was! Unfortunately, I wasn’t in a spot to get a photo… 😦
18Z GFS @ TTD
Nice and warm like early August should be (86.3 average)
The way you’d like early August to be. There’s no way it “should” be. And if you want a 16-day period to average 86 degrees for the high in the late Summer you probably shouldn’t be living here of all places.
Personally I’d like to see it around 75 every day with some sort of rain maybe once a week. Luckily the new GFS has a big warm bias from what I here. The EURO looks seasonable to cool through day ten.
*from what I hear
I am aware that the NCEP 6-14 day does not support the GFS solution.
Jesse, relax, you’ll get your wet, gray days soon enough. August is for heat. Nasty side slamming, dusty, dry heat. It opens the pores so the rains can soak in so much better.
Sorry to say Jesse, “but if you want a 16-day period to average” “around 75 every day with some sort of rain maybe once a week”, then maybe “you probably shouldn’t be living here of all places”, either.
Hate to break it to you, but this is our dry season. Average High temp this time of year is 81 degrees. Typically, the only precip we see this time of year comes from the rare ‘stray albino donkey’… which seems to be exceptionally rare this year.
It’s disappointing, I know. 😕
I support Jesse’s preference of coolant occasionally wet. Not all of us like hot & dry.
Anyone know where this high level smoke is coming from? I can see it on the visible imagery drifting over Western WA and Northwest Oregon, but I can’t trace its origin. Making for some interesting hues to the light outside though…reminds me of 2008 when we kept getting smoke from all those fires over Norcal.
http://www.geomac.gov/viewer/viewer.htm
Looks like there are a couple fires in Northern Cali, and one decent sized one in North/Central Oregon. This smoke is probably coming up from the South.
Cliff Mass thinks the smoke is coming from fires in British Columbia.
That could be, too. Upper level flow is from the NNW on visible satellite.
Thanks guys. Yeah, I think I’d have to agree with Cliff Mass on this one.
I REALLY hope we get payback for the cool May and June with a hot September and October. What are the long-range models saying about early fall? Certainly by now somebody must have seen them – any hope for a strong Indian summer this year???
July was also cool, btw. At least up in the Portland area.
With a strong La Nina developing I would expect a chilly Fall.
Space Weather News for August 1, 2010
http://spaceweather.com
GLOBAL ERUPTION: During the early hours of August 1st, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a complex global disturbance on the Earth-facing side of the sun. Most of the sun’s northern hemisphere was involved in the event, which included a long-duration C3-class solar flare, a “solar tsunami,” and a massive filament eruption. As a result of these blasts, a coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading toward Earth. High-latitude geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the cloud arrives a few days hence. Check http://spaceweather.com for movies and updates.
Will there be any other effect on earth from this?
Nice! Maybe the auroras will actually be visible this time??? That solar storm on St. Patty’s Day was lame… 😦
Is there also smoke in the air; the sun as seen from Astoria about 6 was really orange!
Lots and LOTS of blue skies galore.
73.5F and we are usually the last to clear out the gunk except for East Portland.
I may be wrong but I don’t think in the entire operation of this blog we have EVER had 26C 850mb temps.
That would be astounding! 😮
we did last year kyle during the heat wave:) correct me if i am wrong somebody but i think we had as high as 27 ?
whats up with the gfs lately it seems to be spitting out some numbers that dont make a whole lot of sense. For instance a 18degree 850 temp shows us getting to 94 one day and than a 26degree 850 temp shows us getting to 90! I notice its been spitting out numbers that really dont add up for about the past week.
Good post. Yeah per viewing the 12z GFS model run I don’t see the 90’s, yet the extracted data spits out a lot of warmth.
I heard somewhere that the new GFS has a warm bias. I guess, if that is true then we won’t be teased quite as bad this winter.
i think it may have more of a cool bias in the stuff over a week out. Something tells me that a 26 degree 850 temp would put us in the 105 range and not struggling to reach 90. But one thing for sure is its does not seem to be a upgrade in accuracy over previous gfs model that it replaced.
There’s one lone random lightning strike in the last 12 hours down by Salem… when did that happen? I wonder is someone hit a pole near one of the lightning sensors? It happens. 😕
Yeah I would think that is erroneous for sure.
Partly sunny at times here the past 30 minutes. The marine layer appears much shallower than yesterday, at least in specific locations.
In fact running the Visible Imagery Loop
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1 (Click ‘ZOOM’ once over PDX to really see features in greater detail.)
Lots of holes and thin spots in the marine layer particularly over Multnomah County. You can also see what appears to be some type of small mesoscale feature over Clark County as well as another down near Polk County. They almost remind me of eddy lows or the swirls you’d find down off the southern California Coast. Other locations the marine deck looks more prominent and you can definitely see it is lapping up against the Foothills, so not sure some areas burn off before 1-2 PM. It does seem possible to break out into the sun before that time over Multnomah County.
Looks like a real quiet week all around Oregon this week.
When are we going to see the sun here on the Long Beach coast? Ugh! I am turning into a seethough jellyfish!
*turns off the blog room lights*
59.2F and clouds from the NW with the moon rising towards the east at the same time. 😮
[Milwaukie] 7/31/2010
72.4°F High
56.8°F Low
S 10.1 mph at 4:39pm
Kind of a cool finish to July, but I guess that’s to be expected this summer, huh?
Looks like some showers are coming in from the north.
Migratory birds.
There are some showers up by seattle, those are moving west though. Confirmed rainfall by somebody in woodinville.
Why am I so South Wind event starved?
It’s been a while, apparently.
Would Silverton survive a 32mb south wind event?
What would Salem’s airport probably record for the highest gust?
Let’s see… the max EUG-PDX gradient during the Columbus Day Storm in October 1962 was +13.7mb, which resulted in a peak wind gust of 90 mph at Salem. 32mb is roughly 2.34 times the gradient of that storm, so without doing like logarithmic fancy math or anything, I think it would be safe to assume that this might produce a peak wind gust at Salem 2.34 times stronger, or 211 mph = HOLY CRAP!!! Batten down the hatches, man! We’ve just hit Category 7 and a half! 😆
How sad… I’m smelling fireplace smoke outside. It wasn’t really that cold today, was it? I’m still comfy in my shorts and a T-shirt!
Coastal Radar
Looks like the Langley Hill site is the best pick for the site.
Warning, this PDF is 32 mb. Now I know where all of our tax dollars go 🙂
32mb?
That’s a huge wind gradient.
32mb east winds! 😮
Or is this south winds?
If it’s the latter then we are completely screwed. http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/axe.gif
(Joke)
Hahaha! Could you even imagine?!? 😛
Surprised to see some levity in the NWS forecast discussion this eve.
.LONG TERM…NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS…SEE SHORT TERM. OK…JUST KIDDING THERE…BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
😆
Check out the outflow from the storms near Yakima…
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?pdt_n0r+/2h/
High 78
Low 52
Marine layer not completely gone until around 2pm.
Actually it would be more like
TSB59 for the 11-12pm report and THEN the details.
Guys: If you look at the METAR report for 11pm (wherever that is) there will ususally be a (remarks) section which may say
DIST LIG 11:00PM and the type of cloud and the direction of the thunderstorm.
Summer doldrums…not really hot but definitely no sign of autumn in the air yet (thank God/dess). Personally I’d rather have a little extra heat for the plants’ sake, even if it’s a bit more uncomfortable. Either dry (PM dewpoints below 54F) or lightly muggy (dewpoints 54-60) is fine by me. Both dry heat and semi-humid heat have their own unique aesthetic qualities to be appreciated.
By a “little extra heat” I mean highs 85-92 in the valley with lows mid 50s in the cool spots, near 60 in the heat islands. Enough to make tomatoes, peppers and most of the Mediterranean or warm-temperate type plants happy.
I have recently planted fig and cherry trees, both of which have shown signs of increased happiness since the cool down.
Karl, I’m willing to bet we heat up again. Mid August into Sept. Then the forest fires.
Speaking of fruit trees, my avocado has gone absolutely WILD this summer. With the wet beginning and the hot couple weeks in the middle, there is so much new growth, it’s insane! She’s pushing about 10 feet by now, too. There won’t be any indoor wintering this year… which worries me with all this apocalyptic winter talk as of late. I’m going to have to figure something out before too long… 😕
That tree is for sure having a good time W7ENK.
*whispers* It’s so quiet in here…
*crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets*
*crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets* *crickets*
…it may seem quiet, but overall, i think this is the busiest blog summer i can remember….
Van Morrison, “enlightenment”
82 , sunny, and breezy here in The Dalles right now.. Huge thunderheads to the north of me east of Mt. Adams.
We’ve got breaking clouds in sandy
clear skies 1/2 mile east of sandy
♪♫♪ “Sunshine on my shoulder makes me happyyyyyyy!” ♫♪♫
Finally, the marine layer is burning off. 🙂
I am sure some of you may know the answer to this question, but I will ask it anyways. How is the lift index measured?
Yev, essentially it is another tool to measure instability. The lower the negative value indicated the more unstable and more buoyant the air mass can be.
Here is even more information in greater detail.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/54/
I hope you find it as helpful as I have.
man, picked a great day to take the boat out. has to be the one day we probably wont burn off.