A Cool July?

It’s looking likely that July will either be near or below average temperature-wise.  Sure, we’re just barely halfway through, but all long range models agree that a trough (dip in the upper-level flow) will develop near the West Coast later this weekend and linger at least through next week.  In fact 850mb temps down in the single digits are likely at some point…more like early June than the latter half of the hot month of July.  Here’s a CPC 8-14 day outlook:  It’s a bit blurry, but if you click on the image you’ll see the effect of a hot ridge in the middle of the country and that upper-level trough off the West Coast.

Of course in the short term we have a brief warm up.  The strong onshore flow has really decreased; the PDX-GEG gradient has dropped from around 16 millibars yesterday evening to 3-4 this evening.  Gorge gradient has decreased as well.  By morning it should be just about flat.  Combine that with 850mb temps that go from +2 this morning to +12 tomorrow AM to +16 Thursday spell a signficant warming in mid-July.  Probably no low clouds in the morning west of the Cascades, or at least very minimal coverage.

The onshore flow returns Friday, but isn’t very strong until Sunday night since upper-level heights will remain high.  I have next week off…getting concerned that I may need to head east of the Cascades for a sun fix!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

39 Responses to A Cool July?

  1. Karl Bonner says:

    Is there any hope for a hot September and October? Of course what I’d REALLY love to see would be a couple Indian-summer days in early November, though it’s very tough without a Pineapple Express to our north. It has happened before, though…notably in 1999 and 2002, though the latter year Eugene was socked in with fog.

  2. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    18Z – Temps over 70 are going to be very hard to come by after this Sunday.

  3. I hope we stay nice and dry this summer like we are, but I will be dissapointed if we don’t hit 80 degrees the vast majority of all July and August days as well as the first half of September with only a small minority of cool cloudy days. Bring on the heat oh yeah! I got lots of floating to do on my camping trip in central Oregon later this month! I want it hot!

    It is difficult to accurately predict winter now or even in December, but it’s fun to guess and see what happens, attempting to learn more each time.

    Aren’t most cold, snowy winters not in la Nina or El nino years but in neutral years?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Correct, it is more common for significant snowfall to occur in ENSO neutral years.

      However, La Nina still increases our chances of a white winter. More often than not we end up cold & wet.

  4. Battle Ground Brian says:

    I noticed last night that Bartlesville, Oklahoma at 9pm local time had 86 degrees and 86% humidity for a dewpoint of 82. Can you imagine?

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I live in Bartlesville and actually work outside most of the time during the summer months. I’ll tell you the last couple of days have been something else as far as the humidity goes.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Warm and muggy in Ohio today…

    The fog at 72 degrees last night was just a little creepy. 😕

    Hoping for some good thunderstorms; Maybe by the weekend?

  6. Battle Ground Brian says:

    27 stations out of 616 hit freezing this morning in Oregon. Foster Flat lead the way with a bone chilling 25 degrees. Here is the list.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Nice data!

      Where do you go to get that info organized into that format, or do you just do it yourself?

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Yeah, that is nice. I’m still trying to figure out how to upload pics, etc.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      I program all this stuff myself in vb.net using Visual Studio 2008. Once programs are perfected, I will publicly release them on my website.

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    45 this morning. I can’t believe PDX only managed 54, considering it’s only 6 miles away from here.

  8. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Down to 47.7° this am…

  9. Low of 44.7° this morning. Nice and brisk!

  10. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    I think I’m going to pull the air conditioner out of the window. I may regret it in August and shove it back in. For the foreseeable future I’ll be shivering in the morning if I keep it in!

    One positive thing; we keep getting good news for the coming winter. It appears we are going to have a good La Nina in place with a now negative PDO.

    • Gidrons says:

      There are other indexes in addition to ENSO/PDO that point to a cold winter. I think I saw on one of the other forums where they looked at past winters where so many of the indexes were negative. Some of the historically cold winters were in those cycles.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Everything I have been able to find on the net seems to point towards a cold and wet winter. Just how cold and how wet we will see. We had summers like this in 1962,1963,1964,1965,1968,1971,1976,1980,1981,1983,1988,1989,1993,1996,2000. Here’s what happened the next winter. 62-63 cold, 63-64 avg, 64-65 cold, 65-66 cool,68-69 cold, 71-72 cold, 76-77 mild, 80-81 mild 81-82 cold, 83-84 cold, 88-89 cold 89-90 cool, 93-94 avg, 96-97 mild, 00-01 avg. That’s 9 cool or cold, 3 avg, and 3 mild. Or 60% of winters following cool summers since 1960 have been cool to cold. However the last 3 winters like that were either avg or mild. Let’s see what happens.

  11. Jeremy says:

    Nippy east side this morning!

    Crane Prairie 14 Jul 5:29 am 28
    Mazama 14 Jul 4:45 am 29
    Cabin Lake 14 Jul 5:06 am 29
    La Pine 14 Jul 6:14 am 31
    Crescent 14 Jul 4:30 am 30

  12. I will be happy if we have little or no rain this summer, but I will be at least a little dissapointed if a majority of the summer doesn’t hit 80 degrees or more each day, as we would normally expect. I don’t like this “socked in with clouds until 3pm and barely hit 70” kind of thing, it sucks!

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    The Much Below normal projections for Alaska to me suggests some cross-polar flow and in fact the 00z EURO shows the PV north of Barrow… They could see some “colder, arctic” air across northern Alaska….

  14. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Well wasn’t the forecast for a cooler/wetter July in the first place?

  15. Ben Randall says:

    I am not going to bite on this forecast from NOAA because the last 2 out looks have been WRONG

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Model consensus has been very solid in the 7-14 day range that a cool to very cool regime begins next week. There isn’t yet anything to suggest otherwise. We shall see.

    • yevpolo19 says:

      hahaha
      now this just made my birthday better

  16. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I’ve seen 3 July’s with below normal mean temps (since 1996):

    1999: -0.5
    2000: -0.1
    2001: -0.7

    My warmest was 1998 with a departure of +5.5 degrees.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      I take that back…that was my low temps. Mean temps:

      1999: -0.2
      2001: -0.2

      1996: +5.3

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Equally impressive to see most of Alaska much below normal extending southeast into the PNW.

    /Summer cancel?

  18. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    I like these forecasts….

    59° after a high today of 69…

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Looking at the models they pretty much speak for themselves. Agreed after this brief warm up we have an impressively cool trough coming in for July. Variability, but on the cool side, seems to be the rule for this month.

  20. Joshua says:

    First! Oh, and I love what you are saying Mark. Let’s keep the air conditioning off and enjoy some comfortable weather for as long as Mother Nature will allow us.

  21. Tyler says:

    I think it’s been a while since we had a cool July!

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      As much as I hate to say it, it’s true. The last cool July was July, 2001.

      July, 2001 –
      Avg. High: 77.0
      Avg. Low: 56.0
      Avg. Temp: 66.5

      Avg. July –
      Avg. High: 79.3
      Avg. Low: 56.9
      Avg. Temp: 68.1

      Last I heard, we were on tap to have a cool summer this year and that right around January, we were going to warm up and February looked warm, again.

      As long as we get a couple more 90s and a day of thunderstorms or two, I’ll be fairly happy. Unless in between those 90s and thunderstorms it’s sub-72. I don’t care if 65 – 70 is “relatively warm” compared to most of the year; it’s 6 – 12+ below average for July/August period… So I consider it cool/cold.

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