Everything still on track for a very hot day today…upper atmosphere has warmed a bit, plus offshore flow is still lingering over the Cascades. That easterly wind is much weaker this morning, so a widespread easterly wind is not in the cards for the metro area, but the effect will still be there to maximize heating. I notice Corbett was the warm spot last night…it didn’t get below 70 degrees last night with the wind keeping the air stirred up. That’s quite a turnaround considering a few days ago they had a tough time even getting ABOVE 60 degrees for a high!
A few obvious changes today will make it feel hotter: lack of wind for one, and then take a look at the picture above. Low clouds have pushed inland as far as the Longview/Kelso areas. That with the loss of the dry wind from the east means signficantly higher dewpoints; it’s going to be more humid.
You can see some thunderstorm leftovers in the South Oregon Cascades…I doubt that moisture makes it farther north than the Three Sisters today…but some good action down around Crater Lake!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
I’m seeing a couple good towers to the south east from Hazel Dell. A few whispy clouds popping up over head. Would love some nighttime lightning.
Thunder heads to my east… lost of high clouds streaming up from the south.. Would be cool to see a light show this evening.
The thought of late evening/early night time convection sounds kooool… Marine push, PLEASE hold off. You can wait 😆
How good is this guy Mark Nelsen? Awfully good!!
Wednesday High was 95 >>> He forecasted 95
Thursday High was 97 >>> He forecasted 98
I feel 98 will be todays official high when it is all said and done. Awesome job Mark..
I was thinking at least 100F today, that would have been a fail if that was on the 7-day.
97 degrees in Portland at 5pm and that’s the high (so far) today.
Awesome predictions coming from you Mark! You da best.
🙂
Surface LI’s are outstandingly and impossibly impressive (yes, its that impressive). A value of -11 stands right in the southern Cascades.
I think Lifted Index values during the infamous supercell on July 9 1995 reached -10 or something. I’ll look in a second…
Yeah, CAPE values reached 2500 J/kg along with LI’s of -10 on July 9th 1995.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/97TAs/TA9722/TA97-22.html
The paramters we are seeing today is almost unheard of, too bad a lot of this means nothing in the atmosphere.
Sea-Tac airport at 94 degrees at 4pm…breaking the daily record by 7 degrees today.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=KSEA&num=48&raw=0&dbn=m
Absolutely shattered the daily record of 87 set in 1985.
down to 91 here in west salem winds are becoming more westerly to north west and all the buildup of clouds seem to be drifting to east. Gotta love the weather channel we top out at 94 in salem today and they are still forecasting 96 for tomorrow 🙂 man it must be let your 6 year old kid forecast the weather day there 🙂
I’ve had enough. Below 70 for a high, please!! 🙂
I know it ain’t gonna happen, but a guy can hope, right?
Even on the hottest day of 2010 in Oregon, someone did hit freezing this morning. What a diversified climate we have. 10 stations were in the 30’s this morning in Eastern Oregon. Crane Prairie froze with a low of 31.
Here are those 10 stations:
Kelso temps starting to take a hit from a marine influence, -3 over yesterday at the same time and down 2 over the last 20 minutes.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KLS&num=48
93 at SLE
90 at EUG
No triple digits for the central and south valley it seems.
How many thermometers are whack in Oregon?
Today is a good day to test accuracy. Here are 38 stations reporting 100+ degrees out of 607 possible.
I feel at least 80% of these listed are Whack!!
i here you on that one it seems there are quite a few stations that need to check there sensors. Maybe its a global warming thing they are purposely bumping up th official sites to make it look hotter than it is 🙂
It’s REALLY easy to have a thermometer that reads too high, whereas it’s almost impossible to get a wind gust that’s too high. All it takes is some sort of extra heating due to a roof, wall, pavement, etc…it can even be 10 feet away! If you watch the Mesowest observations you’ll notice that it’s somewhat easy to pick out the usual overheated spots (Rivergrove, Liberal etc…). They do that year-round on sunny days.
Don’t forget Yacolt Mark….low of 49 this morning and 100 degrees by 1155am? I don’t think so!!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=C6182&table=1&banner=off
Its been a pretty extreme day in Prarie City 🙂
Sunny, 50° and refreshing:
in Barrow, Alaska
Looks like they don’t have to weed whack in the summertime there. I like that.
Okay everyone. Put on your thinking caps….
Mid-level moisture increasing.
PWAT values increasing(1.1″ southern/SW Oregon)
Instability increasing
CAP weakening
Shortwave near Florence
SE-S flow aloft now progressing up through SW Washington before veering to the east leaving PDX south under a favorable SE-S flow aloft.
All of this coupled with a weak marine push this evening could that lead to some storms closer to PDX? I would not rule it out entirely…..
Activity is approaching SE Marion County. IF we had a stronger marine push I would rule it out as the flow/instability axis would be shunted off to the northeast fairly quickly, but we’re not seeing that. The S-SE flow aloft over Oregon is winning out, for now.
So far things look pretty identical to what the 12z/18z NAM runs have been showing. Convection largely in the south Cascades with a chance for some storms drifting over I-5 from Roseburg on south.
I think we need a big HMMMMMM from Rob right now. That always gets the mental processes flowing!
I am feeling cruddy so I certinalty hope there is no t-storms.
I’m done today due to feeling so tired.
Currently 91.8° (-3.8° from yesterday), looks like yesterday will be the warmer day for me.
91 in Molalla — about 6 degrees cooler than yesterday. Crazy micro-climates…
Oh yeah, and there’s these purty clouds due east of me that keep getting taller and taller… too bad all they’re gonna do is look purty.
Maybe you’ll get some nice flashes tonite. When I was young, we called it Heat Lightning and was POSITIVE is was a different kind of lightning, silent with no thunder and was caused soley by the heat of the day. We used to touch the sidewalk and if it was hot, there might be lightning!! And grandma used to put glasses of water on the window sills to keep the lightning away – ha ha!!
Up to about 96 here, I see PDX is reporting the same. Should still creep a little higher but the onshore push is increasing.
98.8F
19% RH
N @ 2 mph
96 now at PDX
Yeah.. I think the light W-NW breezes off the cooler Columbia River is having an impact on their temp.
Still, +3 over yesterday at the same time.
Yup…. 98-99 seems the best bet. Not sure about 100F.
18Z Temperature analysis @ KTTD
Showing next week very cool 7-12 to 7-19 with Highs ranging from 67-75. Then warming back into the 80’s the 20th-23rd.
Love those graphs you make. So it looks like a 1 week hiatus before we get back into the heat again possibly…
Yes, that prorgam I developed will parse any 16 day output for any city in the world and grab the highs out of the GFS table. I like it!!
KVUO going for it! 97 baby!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KVUO&table=1&banner=off
Woooooooo 98.2 here 20% RH
Battle Ground Lake
93.9 yesterday
96.6 at 4:00pm today
+2.7 24hr change
91.9 here in west salem airport says 93 for salem and some pretty impressive buildup to the east that has really been growing fast past 30 min or so. Salem is still a few degrees behind yesterday though. So maybe 96 for salem maybe
2 bigger storms down to our south. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if there is a brief Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Douglas or Jackson County.
Clatsop County obs as of 340pm
You can see the dramatic effect of the Columbia river
with a cool 74 at Bradley Wayside but 97 at Miller (1031ft) up off the river a few miles. Also I see 64 a Astoria airport but 78 in Downtown Astoria and 80 in Knappa. Kelso reached 90 despite morning clouds but has a 64 dewpoint. Quite stuffy..
Also sounds like a very weak marine layer which I assume won’t make it much cooler tomorrow.
I meant my post around 1pm.
Why didn’t my post about my humidity make it thru?
My humidity is 22% here higher then yesterdays 15%.
96.4F outside with mainly clear skies and variable winds.
97.1F
21% RH
My humidity has gone down to 30%…oops now 29%
As of 3:30 PM
Mesoscale Analysis
Upper Air Analysis
850mb: +21c to +22c
500mb: -11c
Thermodynamic Fields(PDX/VUO Metro and Willamette Valley)
SBCAPE: 1000-1500J/kg
SBCAP: -100-150 CINH(Rapidly eroding along Foothills 25-75 CINH)
MLCAPE: 1000-1500J/kg
EMLCAP: -150 CINH (25-75 Foothills)
MUCAPE: 2000-3000J/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -3 to -5
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.5-8C/km
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.5C/km
LCL PARCEL HEIGHT: 2500
LFC PARCEL HEIGHT: 4000
PWAT VALUE: .82″
SHEAR: 10-15kts
*My thoughts: Due to strong afternoon heating both the Surface/EML CAP are eroding. I think also some weak forcing from a shortwave near Florence is contributing to this. LCL-LFC parcel height differential is narrowing along the Cascades/Foothills and this is nosing northward. This may lead to some storms along the central Cascades/Foothills towards Mt. Jefferson by 5-6 PM. It is still unclear and not expected to reach the northern Foothills/Cascades, but it is worth keeping an eye on.
As of 3 PM:
Temp, 24 Hour Change
KPDX: 94, +1
KVUO: 95, +2
More importantly:
Dewpoint, 24 Hour Change
KPDX: 52, +10
KVUO: 54, +10
Yesterday at this time, the east winds were keeping the temps and dewpoints somewhat in check. Feels much more muggy today, but still, doesn’t seem all that bad. Maybe it’s knowing it’s not going to be 108? And 70 at night? Or 90 for another week?
No humidity here according to my 22% reading here in no silverton.
You know there is no silver here right?
Wow, 95.0
I could feel the humidity sneaking in yesterday evening in Eugene – dewpoints were already in the mid to upper 50s so I wonder if we broke 60?
99 degrees here outside my house in NE Portland at 3:29 pm. I suspect we will top out at 100 degrees today.
Still warming quick here, I think it was 94 or so at last check. Should probably top out just shy of 100, maybe 98-99 or so.
As of 3 PM
[Surface Gradients]
PDX-DLS: +0.2mb | 0.2mb Increase
TTD-DLS: -0.1mb | 0.4mb Decrease
AST-PDX: +3.7mb | 0.2mb Increase
PDX-EUG: -0.9mb | 0.2mb Increase
Go on shore flow! Go on shore flow!
A quick glance at the wunderground weather network for my zip code shows almost all personal weather stations with W to WNW wind.
PDX at 94 as of 2:53 PM — now +1 over yesterday.
I was at 96 by this time yesterday, now at 93.
NICE PACE for upper 90’s.. Just hold off the weak onshore push.
Is this where we say “In yo’ Face, KOIN and KGW?” 😆 I knew they would be wrong.
Yep, the trend continues!
PDX 2:53 p.m.: 94 +1 vs. yesterday
PDX 1:53 p.m.: 90 -1 vs. yesterday
PDX 12:53 p.m.: 88 -3 vs. yesterday
PDX 11:53 a.m.: 84 -5 vs. yesterday
Yeah, I’m really surprised that they were so reactive to the temps not initially being as high as yesterday, without considering the effect stronger offshore flow yesterday had on accelerating the heating process early on.
Still, the line is apparently very fine, given what those in the south metro and further down the valley are reporting for temps. Guess we’ll see what these last couple of hours of potential heating bring…
The airport must be in the shade again. I’m 6 degrees warmer and I’m only a couple of miles away.
+2.7 degrees warmer then yesterday at this time
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110