A Tougher Forecast

July 1, 2010

No pretty picture tonight…but a few thoughts on the forecast.

1.  Really missed today…cooler than expected due to that much stronger than expected system that moved onshore this afternoon.  I see Vancouver (VUO) has had .22″ so far.  Interesting that that rainfall didn’t extend very far south or east into the Metro Area.  Troutdale only has .02″. 

2.  One more round of shallow convective showers tomorrow afternoon, so we’re not done with the shower chance yet, and another chilly day.

3.  No changes for Saturday or Sunday…much better, but still cool for this time of the year.  One possible problem to keep an eye on…the NAM has the system to our north dragging down over the NW Corner of Oregon Sunday.  That would leave us with a very gray 4th of July.  I’m discounting it for now since our RPM doesn’t support that.  The UW-WRFGFS has stalled in it’s 00z run, so no help there.

4.  Hot weather next week:  Up until 00z this evening it has been looking very hot Wednesday-Thursday…850mb temps around the +20 to +23 range, easterly flow and solid sunshine.  So we’ve got two 95 degree temperatures for those days on our 7 Day forecast.  In come the 00z models which throw things into confusion.  The GFS has lower heights, and the trough kicks out slower Monday too.  Then it has much heigher heights Friday through Sunday (next weekend).  The 00z GEM (Canadian) has a historic heatwave the same period…next Friday-Sunday.  Check out those maps!  500-1000mb Thickness around 585!  That’s 100+.  That model is very warm like the GFS through next week ahead of that time as well.  So some issues in the long range…I was tempted to lower the 7 Day temps, but that would definitely be model-riding.  We’ll see what the 12z runs show.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen