Weekend Outlook

Here’s a surprise for most of you…we haven’t had a “rainy” 4th of July in 10 years!  Doesn’t it seem that we’ve had lots of clouds the last few years?  Definitely not.  Check out the numbers above.  2 out of the last three holidays have been hot.  That won’t happen this year though.  At WORST we’ll see lots of cloud cover and high temps around 70.  At BEST, it’ll be totally sunny with temps in the upper 70s.  I’ll go with morning clouds breaking up in the afternoon and a high somewhere around 75 degrees.

Before we get to the 4th we have two weak systems moving through tomorrow and Friday.  They are so weak that rain is unlikely…more likely a few drips here and there each of the next two afternoons.  Still, more clouds and cooler temps (65-70) both days.

24 hours after the previous post the big warm up is still on for next week.  Monday should be the first real warm day…into the 80s.  Then Tuesday and Wednesday should be the warmest.  The ECMWF and GFS actually have a thermal trough developing west of the Cascades (easterly flow over the mountains) for both days.  Add in 850mb temps in the +20 to +22 degree range?  My July chart shows a high between 93-98 degrees!  I went a bit lower than that since there are still variations in the models over strength of the ridge, thermal trough etc…  But they do all agree on the summer “switch” flipping to “ON” starting the 5th of July.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

56 Responses to Weekend Outlook

  1. laurie(sylvan) says:

    I hate rain, but I’m glad everything is getting watered down before the Fourth.

  2. 00z GFS is backing off a bit on the 90’s , but it does however give us about 7 days solid of 80+ weather which will be fantastic. I am guessing that it won’t hit 90 till Wednesday. Then looks like a weak marine flow will drop us back to mid-upper 80’s end of next week and into the weekend. Can’t really complain about that.

  3. Kyle says:

    *Almost a little too much*
    Don’t you mean a lot too much Timmy?

  4. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    My wettest July 1st on record! I’m not sure how much has fallen at my station, but my record was just 0.02″ lol.

    Felt like May out there today. You would never know the sun is nearly at it’s highest angle for the entire year.

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      I don’t think KHIO has had an above average July precip wise since at least 2000.

      .15″ now and raining moderately hard. 63 for a high today, well below average. Currently a more May like 56.1 degrees.

  5. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Hey Mark!

    I’m working on a tenth of an inch of rainfall so far. That’s more than a few drips and drops! 😉

    Perfect timing really. The lawn was just getting to where it needed watering.

    • Tom (NE Portland) says:

      Haha!

      Raining pretty moderately here now. Oops Mark!!

    • wendy-silverlake,WA says:

      I was thinking this is great. Soak things down good before all the fireworks start up. Less fire danger.

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      0.12″ so far and its raining at a good clip now…

      56°

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Generally speaking, I like heat (maybe up to 95 F), and its fun to be outside in. Of course thats my opinion, but even I have limits. Last year’s heat wave almost was a little too much.

    Yeah I agree Yamcha, the temps outside can be fun and all, but inside I guess it is a little brutal. The only time I’m really in my bedroom is whenever I have to go sleep for the night. The rest of the day is always spent off to the side of the AC in my living room. Last year’s heat started to get to me towards the end of it. I think I remember one of those nights we had to keep the air conditioner on 24 hours straight. It was noisy, but its better than waking up every 20 minutes with your forehead dripping constantly, and your back being so itchy, it felt like 1000 mosquitos bit you. Now during the day I can stand it, as long as I keep up on water every hour or so.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      My forecast for this summer is that we should see a fair amount of heat (not too severe like last year), and these heat waves probably won’t be too long. I’m guessing maybe 3-5 days of 90+ and then back down to below 80 for almost a week. It should be like that off and on.

      I could be wrong, “what if” we brake another record for consecutive days above 90F? With the way GFS is showing sudden temp jumps like this, and the fact that low pressure disturbances has almost come to a complete on the models, its something to keep in mind.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Typo…

      and the fact that low pressure disturbances has almost come to a complete *stop* on the models, its something to keep in mind.

      Hope thats better.

  7. Debbie - East Vancouver says:

    Looking at the 7 day, so glad we went and bought an A/C for our family room/kitchen last night. The Depot still has several left in stock if you’re thinking about buying one. Past years we waited too long and there were none left with no further shipments coming in.

    We have 2 small ones, one in master bedroom and one in another bedroom and with a sheer curtain in the hallway, it keeps half our house cool. This new one will keep the remainder of our house cool. Yay!

    Nice that it’s raining, was going to water veggies on my dinner break but might not have to now.

  8. Paul D says:

    Rain! Free watering for my grass. I turned on the sprinkler system this morning for the first time this year, but it was after it was scheduled to run, so I didn’t waste any water! I just turned it off – no need to water for a few more days now!! AWESOME!!

  9. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m going to LOVE the heat… But I am slightly dreading it:

    1. It’s a really sudden and drastic warm up. We haven’t really had a chance to become acclimated to temps this warm. We’re going from 70s on Sunday to 90s on Tuesday. That’s gonna make it feel even warmer than it actually is.

    2. I’m a bit worried about how long it’ll last. I want 90+ heat for sure, but I can only handle 3 – 4 days of it. Last year was far too much for me and that was after getting sorta used to heat. As much as I love the heat, I can’t stand it quite as long as I can stand cooler weather.

    3. I don’t have Air Conditioning… Last year was brutal. 106 outside, 95 inside. Two computers running with two people in the room. I loved the 100+ outside, I hated the 90+ inside.

    I’m absolutely glad that we’re finally getting our long awaited and deserved heat. But there are some things working against the round of heat coming.

  10. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Ugh-anything above 85 degrees is too hot in my book. Glad we will have a nice fourth. Soon Mark’s newscaster buddies will be complaining that it’s too hot instead of it’s too cold.

  11. Karen in Camas says:

    I washed my car yesterday….that’s why it’s raining!!! Argh.

  12. Kyle says:

    So YOU made it rain then W7ENK.

    If you do what you did once a week then we may escape a brownout of the fields and have a dust free summer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. W7ENK says:

    This looks promising!

    🙂

  14. Tom (NE Portland) says:

    So much for a mostly dry day 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      I know, right? I watered everything anyway, because I didn’t think we’d get much. By the time I was done, my hair and shirt were soaked, and the streets were completely wet. Oh well… 😕

  15. W7ENK says:

    What’s this? It’s raining…

    Just as I step out to water my veggies… 😆

  16. yevpolo19 says:

    more rain….

  17. Runrain says:

    Here’s to 6am runs through the park in sunshine and 60 degrees, cold beer on the deck at 10pm when its 75 degrees, exploding vegetable gardens, the sound of sprinklers coming on at night, the Perseids in August (usually hot). C’mon guys. There is a positive side to the heat.

  18. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    65.4°..a few sprinkles in the past half-hour..

    Bring on the heat..it was inevitable anyway.

  19. Kyle says:

    To Timmy: That long link is a result of what happens if you copy and past an outside website.

  20. Paul D says:

    I HATE thermal troughs!!! AARGH!!

    I’ve noticed over the years that when 90+ degree days are forecasted, they usually happen, so I expect them and am already dreading it. The last few days have been really pleasant. No rain, cool off the house by opening the windows (no A/C needed) and the car isn’t too hot when I get in it after work.

    Luckily I had my house A/C recharged last week and it’s is ready to rumble!

    So let me be the first to say: come on late October!! You can’t get here fast enough.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Ditto…

      The weather we have been getting has been perfect. Sunny with highs in the lower to upper 70’s with an occasional 80 mixed in. It’s great.

  21. Muxpux says:

    Boats, beers, and babes!! Bring on the heat!!

  22. June 2010 Climate Summary — Battle Ground Lake

    Averages:

    High Temp: 67.0
    Low Temp : 48.4

    Extremes:

    Max Temp : 81.4 on 23rd + 24th
    Min Temp : 40.6 on 5th

    Precip:

    Rainfall: 5.95″
    Wettest Day: 1.42″ on 6th
    Days of Measurable rain: 15 days

    Other stats:

    Days 80 degrees or higher: 4 days
    Days 70 degrees or higher: 13 days
    Days with highs only in the 50’s : 10 days

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I don’t really believe Global Warming but I thought I might want to share this image:

  24. Pete says:

    Boy it was hot back east in June — the hottest June on record (since 1871) in the nation’s capital with 18 days at 90+ and seven at 95+. http://bit.ly/bkkFqh

  25. umpire says:

    Bring on the hot weather – maybe it will kill the mosquitoes! Has anyone else noticed our earlier cold, and especially damp, weather seems to have produced an abundance of the dang critters?

  26. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    One thing is clear based on the last 24 hours worth of model runs. My air conditioner is going in the window on July 5th and probably staying there until Mid-October!

  27. Gidrons says:

    I updated the hot weather list:

    Best things about hot weather:

    6. Grass grows slower
    5. Cold beer tastes that much better (bbq’s better too)
    4. Burglaries decrease
    3. Al Gore can go back to being on the news for global warming instead of hotel massages.
    2. Slugs shrivel up and die
    1. That many more scantily clad co-eds

    Worst things about hot weather:

    6. Grass has to be watered
    5. Better tasting beer causes increased drunkeness
    4. Road rage increases
    3. Al Gore makes more money as prophet of doom
    2. In-laws leave sweat stains on leather furniture
    1. That many more scantily clad senior citizens (which can lead to a higher divorce rate in conjunction with #5 and #2)

  28. 12z GFS is now out.. Wow, I am so stoked!!!!

    Hour 156 at PDX = 99 degrees (July 7th).

    Looking like 90+ on at least 3 days 7th to 9th.

    Also, the advertised trough has disappeared in the long range keeping mid-summer sun and 80’s to low 90’s all the way thru the end of the forecast period (July 16th).

    Summer is indeed coming!!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I was OK with the 70-something to 80-something summer we have been experiencing. 🙂

  29. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    We all know that PDX had the wettest June ever. KHIO had the second wettest after 1984. 4.41 inches at my station due to the torrential downpours on the 6th. My lawn is still damp in places and I haven’t watered or had rain since the 21st.

    Here are the totals for everyone but HSP which I can’t find at the moment. Generally, wetter and cooler the farther north you went. Someone really needs to get the temp gauge at KVUO figured out.

    3 months in a row with above average precip now. As noted earlier, its been a while.

    June10, Total, Diff, % of Avg, Temp Var
    PDX, 4.28, 2.69, 269%, -2.3
    HIO, 3.52, 2.05, 239%, -3.4
    VUO, 4.21, 2.48, 243%, -0.3
    AST, 3.88, 1.31, 151%, -0.4
    SLE, 2.64, 1.19, 182%, -1.2
    EUG, 2.79, 1.26, 182%, -1.3
    HSP, 2.75, 1.52, 224%, -1.7

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

      Correction:

      HSP (Corvallis) is 180% of average, right in line with Salem and Eugene.

  30. Currently 48.8° with high/mid level clouds around and even a little sun.

  31. June Stats:
    High: 84.3°
    Low: 42.5°
    Avg: 57.9°
    Rain: 3.87″
    Peak Gust: 17.9 mph from the south

  32. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 6/30/2010
    74.7°F High
    48.0°F Low
    NE 13.2 mph at 12:50p
    0.00″
    4.34″ June monthly total

    No rain since the 20th

    ~* My June Rainfall *~

    Date Daily Total
    6/1 0.17″ 0.17″
    6/2 0.79″ 0.96″
    6/3 0.29″ 1.04″
    6/4 0.75″ 2.00″
    6/5 –
    6/6 0.83″ 2.83″
    6/7 –
    6/8 0.08″ 2.91″
    6/9 0.29″ 3.20″
    6/10 0.31″ 3.51″
    6/11 0.04″ 3.55″
    6/12 –
    6/13 –
    6/14 –
    6/15 0.68″ 4.23″
    6/16 0.02″ 4.25″
    6/17 0.01″ 4.26″
    6/18 0.02″ 4.28″
    6/19 0.04″ 4.32″
    6/20 0.02″ 4.34″
    6/21 –
    6/22 –
    6/23 –
    6/24 –
    6/25 –
    6/26 –
    6/27 –
    6/28 –
    6/29 –
    6/30 –

  33. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I’ve noticed a lot of exaggeration in Portland, like “Every holiday has some sort of crappy weather to go along with them”, well apparently not 4th of July.

  34. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Mark, thanks for posting that graph. I keep telling my husband it hasn’t rained on the fourth for quite a while and he said that it has. Now you just confirmed for me that I was right and he was wrong. Thank you!!!!!

  35. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Yikes, look at what people in Texas have to deal with this time of year:

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=bro&product=NTP&loop=no

  36. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    First again

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