Weekend Outlook

June 30, 2010

Here’s a surprise for most of you…we haven’t had a “rainy” 4th of July in 10 years!  Doesn’t it seem that we’ve had lots of clouds the last few years?  Definitely not.  Check out the numbers above.  2 out of the last three holidays have been hot.  That won’t happen this year though.  At WORST we’ll see lots of cloud cover and high temps around 70.  At BEST, it’ll be totally sunny with temps in the upper 70s.  I’ll go with morning clouds breaking up in the afternoon and a high somewhere around 75 degrees.

Before we get to the 4th we have two weak systems moving through tomorrow and Friday.  They are so weak that rain is unlikely…more likely a few drips here and there each of the next two afternoons.  Still, more clouds and cooler temps (65-70) both days.

24 hours after the previous post the big warm up is still on for next week.  Monday should be the first real warm day…into the 80s.  Then Tuesday and Wednesday should be the warmest.  The ECMWF and GFS actually have a thermal trough developing west of the Cascades (easterly flow over the mountains) for both days.  Add in 850mb temps in the +20 to +22 degree range?  My July chart shows a high between 93-98 degrees!  I went a bit lower than that since there are still variations in the models over strength of the ridge, thermal trough etc…  But they do all agree on the summer “switch” flipping to “ON” starting the 5th of July.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen