Summer on the Horizon

A cool evening out there with a chilly airmass and some spots clearing out.  If we get much more clearing the outlying areas will easily drop into the 40s.  Tomorrow looks real nice with clouds breaking up quickly.  After a weak system dropping through Thursday, Friday should be a bit better.  Overall cool late June weather is on tap through at least the early part of the Holiday Weekend, if not all of it. 

One thing I don’t see is a chance for any sort of rain (other than a sprinkle or two Thursday???).  I had hardly noticed, but we’ve seen very little rainfall in almost two weeks.  All of .03″ at PDX in the last 13 days!  After all that excitement about a record wet June, it sure ended dry.  When we look back at the records we’ll see the “faucet shutting off” at mid-month as the dry season began.

So the first part of a typical Pacific Northwest summer has begun, but what about much warmer and sunnier weather?  Well, models the last 2 days have been pointing towards a significant change in our pattern at some point between Sunday and Tuesday of next week.  The NWS folks have put the entire northern and western parts of the country into the “Above Average” category for next week (and beyond).  This is due to models all shifting the weak July jet farther north.  We don’t get a massive sharp upper-level ridge, but 500mb heights rise up to the 582-590dm range.  That’s classic warm-hot July weather.  Some models even have periods of weak offshore flow in there around Tuesday-Wednesday too.  Both the ECMWF and GFS imply temps at/above 90 those days.  Actually I suppose the GFS could push us well into the mid-upper 90s, but let’s assume it’s erratic behavior lately will continue that that won’t be the case. 

The BIG PICTURE shows a general change towards regular summer weather beginning around…the 5th of July!  That’s always a joke of course, but apparently it may happen this year.  Because of that (and last of the season seeds on sale at Freddies), I decided to try planting corn in my garden for the 3rd time this season.  Did that today.  We’ll see if it makes it before mid-September!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

87 Responses to Summer on the Horizon

  1. Katy Skinner says:

    Ace Hardware . . . all vegetable and flower seeds. . . . .10 cents per packet. 🙂 I planted some poppies, cosmos, and baby’s breath. Figured they are fast-growing and still have time.

  2. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Anyone notice how GREAT the radar coverage is of Alex, even though it’s in Mexico? Meanwhile…our hurricane-force storms go un-covered…at least for a little bit longer.

  3. 00z GFS @ PDX

    Hour 168 = 97 degrees

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX

    GFS is still showing the heat wave lasting only a few day though. The EMCWF is showing the heat lasting longer though.

  4. Kyle says:

    WOw Timmy. I don’t know a whole lot about them but that does sound very unsual.

    http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=fox12weather.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fi49.tinypic.com%2Fipm8op.jpg&sref=http%3A%2F%2Ffox12weather.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F06%2F29%2Fsummer-on-the-horizon%2F%23comments

    I hope the link shows as I am stuck in Fox 12 weather blog frames in Timmy’s link.

  5. Kyle says:

    Your right Ryan about your comment last night and that’s just what I did.

  6. Kyle says:

    I am throughly convinced that some people on here are warm blooded and cannot ever handle the cold.

    Now the challenege is we all need to get along with those who do better in cool/cold whatever.

  7. O.C.Paul says:

    NOW…the days start to get shorter. Fall is just around the corner! (I grew up in Illinois, and I work outside. So, I’m not much of a hot summer fan)

  8. runrain says:

    It really doesn’t look like its clouding up much. Is the weather really supposed to deteriorate tomorrow as much as they are thinking?

  9. It was achilly night in the Washington County, Forest Grove and Hillsboro dropped to 42 degrees. This is only 10 degrees above freezing.

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    This is an updated warning for that same storm. Just issued 542 pm MDT.

    SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME WITH THIS STORM…RESULTING IN WIND DRIVEN HAIL. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM WITH POTENTIAL TO BREAK WINDOWS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

    Scary 😉

  11. Paul D says:

    “real summer” will not start until July 6 because July 5 is a holiday 🙂

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Funny how a lot of people assume that the seasonal weather patterns are supposed to follow the Hallmark calendar – just because there’s a popular holiday/observance with seasonal themes the weather gods are supposed to adjust their plans accordingly…

  12. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Now I’m glad I didn’t take a nap today like I did so yesterday… I just witnessed a catpuring moment on the radar as you can see. So when are we going these stray albino donkeys here in the Portland metro?

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    You know how the updraft of a supercell thunderstorm always has counter-clockwise rotation? Well, this storm appears to have clockwise rotation.

    And there is no denying it, because I believe a few storms in the past were reported to have opposite rotation in the updraft.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Whoa, someone please identify this…

      This is definitely rotation, but it can’t be a clockwise hook echo can it???

      This is wierd.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Here is a loop I just loaded up:

      This is most unusual, I think I have only seen this once in several years of storm tracking.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      This is no bow segment, the signature on the radar is way too small for it to be a bow. This is a hook no matter how you put it, infact, current image still has it. This storm is right over Melville and is reported to be carrying golfball sized hail and fairly high winds.

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Severe thunderstorm watches covering most of Montana again today…

    And radar echoes are looking fantastic. To the SE of Billings, MT is a bow segment with the potential of damaging winds:

  15. N3EG says:

    Last summer was perfect. I like the 90 degree weather. The days over 100 were an added bonus, but I doubt if we’ll break 95 at all this year. It just looks like we’ll be stuck with north and west wind unless there’s a major change in that annoying pattern.

  16. Karl Bonner says:

    If July 5th is the start of “real summer,” then when is the end? Please be consistent here; no double standards allowed.

  17. RobWaltemate says:

    Starting to cloud up here at the SW Washington Coast. Looks like dark clouds hanging onto the Willapa Hills. About 65 F, and the clouds are coming just East of North.

  18. RobWaltemate says:

    Isn’t corn supposed to be knee high by July? haha. I learned a neat trick from my neibor once. Put furilizer on just on side of the row of corn. This way you can put on more than you should, but if you burn the roots, the corn will not die, for the other side is ok still.

    Is the ocean warmer then normal this year at all or at least compaired to the land? I am not sure where to look. Seams to me if it is, then with the gound realativly cooler (average temps this month), and an on shore wind, we might see more rain or at least fog then normal.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That depends on what part of the ocean you are referring. Are you referring to the Oregon Coast? The North Pacific? The ENSO 3-4 Zone? Lots of oceans and each of them are expansive. 🙂

      The ENSO 3-4 region is one that really effects the PNW weather cycles and at last check it was headed for a La-Nina or the water in those regions being cooler than normal. That is likely part of the reason for our extended cool/wet spring.

    • RobWaltemate says:

      So the air off the ocean is cooler and westerlies push the air east where it hits the land and heats up and rises, where it cools and forms clouds here localy.

  19. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oh looky here! http://i47.tinypic.com/14cy7ww.jpg

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      That’s quite a catpure of Alex on the Brownsville, TX radar. I’ll definitely load a NCDC NEXRAD loop tomorrow.

  20. Muxpux says:

    43 overnight here in Longview. Wow. Temps aren’t too important. Just give me some good solid sunshine

  21. Kyle says:

    2 days of 90F is no big deal. 🙂 We can still go for the record of the fewest 90F days possible in that scenario if the rest of the summer is dry and cool.

  22. Garron near washington square says:

    Hurricane track, radar.

  23. Garron near washington square says:

    Hurricane Alex finally has an eye, http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201001_sat.jpg

  24. 12Z GFS — Not as aggressive with the heat wave. Also an unseasonably cold strong mid-July trough comes in with rain the 13-15th.

    Looks like models are breaking down that ridge pretty fast around July 11-12 with 850mb heights crashing to +1C on the 12th. Current scenario gives us just 2 days above 90 degrees on July 8th and 9th. I guess 2 is better than none. Hopefully 18z will erase this nasty trough from the extended.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Regardless of who like what temperatures, just remember this is summer and lets not treat it like its in the middle of March, except without the rain. 😉 Don’t be wishing for 1954’s return anytime soon.

  26. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    58.8° after a cool overnight low of 46.5….

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Amazing how quickly these morning temps start sprouting, so far so good for my tor-madoes!

  27. Gidrons says:

    Top 5 best things about hot weather:

    5. Cold beer tastes that much better
    4. Statistically, burglaries decrease
    3. Al Gore can go back to being on the news for global warming instead of hotel massages
    2. Slugs shrivel up and die
    1. That many more scantily clad co-eds

  28. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Enjoy the heat wave all you heat lovers! 🙂

    I’ll be curled up next to the air conditioner!

  29. Low of 46.1° this morning. I agree with Jesse, a sunny summer with about 75° for a high and a crisp 50° every night. However, thank goodness for a/c during the 90+ days.

  30. runrain says:

    Cold this morning. Any low temperature records set?

  31. pgiorgio says:

    And its just like I’ve been saying all along. Duh, Portland always has nice summers… ALWAYS. A record wet June yet the month wasnt all that bad most days. Thats how a record wet summer in Portland is. Not so bad and most the precip occurs over a few day stretch, unlike the winter where its gray about every day and .10 inches of drizzle is the norm.

  32. July 5th here we come!

  33. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Dislike.

  34. Sifton says:

    Before anyone says anything bad about the heat coming just remember in just a 100 days (or even less this year) it will all be over for another 200 or so days! Eat it up while you can sun lovers, I KNOW I will!!

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      You can enjoy, or “eat up” the sun, or whatever you want to call it when it’s below 100 degrees out, you know.

      I don’t know why some people think it has to be above 90 to enjoy sunshine. It becomes less and less enjoyable the higher it climbs about 75, IMO. Why chase away the beautiful weather (low 70s-low 80s, lots of sun) we’ve had lately for searing heat? It seems illogial to me. All I can imagine is it must be in people’s heads. Heat=good, at whatever cost.

      I guess we can blame “editorializing” TV mets like Mark for brainwashing everyone. 🙂

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      Nor can many people here understand why others want to have really cool summer temps, whether the sun’s out of not. It’s like saying “I don’t get why people want sub-20 lows” during winter. You don’t need to get it, just understand that others like it.

      Welcome to the world: People don’t make sense… Especially on things like opinions and preferences.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Didn’t we have an agreement about not responding to each other’s posts? I was serious.

    • sds says:

      Jesse

      Some people have work to do outside and need the heat to cure their crops–hay is of better quality when cured at 90+ temps versus 75. Marks corn does better at 90+ temps too!!

    • pgiorgio says:

      Generally thin people tend to enjoy the hot weather for there lack of insulation and plump people like cool weather if they sweat a lot. This is not always the case but I don’t think there is any brainwashing going on.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      humons r stoopid.

      Which is the general thought that comes to mind with everyone (including myself) going back and forth about why one side likes cool summers and the other side likes hot summers.

      I fall under the cool summer category. So I’ll just say to the crazy folks that like hot summers enjoy your 7-10 stretch of near 90 degree weather.

      If anyone wants to whine about cold weather this winter I’ll let ye have it!

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      Pretty much. It’s gotten beyond silly at this point.

      And no, I never agreed to anything like that. You said “let’s agree to not respond” and assume that I was on board. I can actually hold myself back and unless Mark tells me not to respond to you, I will post responses to your posts when I feel like it.

      Not looking for another spat or anything, just don’t like it when people assume I agreed to something when I didn’t.

  35. W7ENK says:

    Back to the old grind, I guess… whatever that is.

    [Milwaukie] 6/29/2010
    73.0°F High
    51.1°F Low
    W 11.0 at 10:05a

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Boring weather maps and the “off-season” for the Weather Blog officially begins! Baring temps flirting with the 100’s!

  36. W7ENK says:

    Summer has already arrived in Central Oregon! The weather was spectacular out there this weekend… Not a cloud in the sky the entire time (saw some thunderheads building to the South and East yesterday as we were leaving), 80 to 85 degrees, dew points in the upper 30s and low 40s, really it was as close to perfect as one could imagine… except for the sunburn, that part sucked – well, it still does! 😦

    It was nice to see how much green is still out there. Fire danger was very low.

    http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=2040791&id=1494562313&l=ac8d2610f4
    You may not want to pick through all 135 photos, but I just thought I’d share the beauty! 🙂

    Mark, you said you just planted your corn (for the third time)? Knee-high by the 4th of July, that’s the general rule, or so I’ve been told, right? The corn I planted 9 weeks ago now has finally made it to knee-high! I was amazed to see how it’s really started to take off, even over the 4 days I was gone. So it looks like my corn is on track after all… that makes me happy! 🙂 I may have to share some with you, Mark. 😆

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      We were in Central Oregon as well, returning Monday night. The weather was beautiful, but the fire danger signs all pointed to “moderate”. The continuing beetle kill of the trees is sad to see and I wondered if that was a contributing factor to the fire danger rating?

    • W7ENK says:

      @Sandi – the Fire Danger signs were all pointing to ‘Low’ on our way out there on Friday, but I didn’t happen to pay any attention on the drive back home. It wouldn’t surprise me if someone bumped them up to ‘Moderate’ over the weekend. Warm and dry, ’tis the season!

  37. Kyle says:

    59F.7F and overcast especially since I don’t know why Mark is offended at my question about my apology to Brian being deleted.

    *sighs*

    Part of my flustering curse. 😦

  38. Kyle says:

    59F right now with overcast skies.

    Mark how come you didn’t answer my question?

    Did I say something bad? I just asked why my apology to Brian was deleted.

  39. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oh yeah that faucet, very faint memory now, time to move on. That was quite a bit of rain for June! Especially without thunderstorms…

  40. PeteyJ (Downtown Vancouver) says:

    First first ever?! lol

  41. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Summer, here we go! *First*

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