Weather Conference

Here’s a nice shot of part of downtown Miami from an island in Biscayne Bay.  That’s where I am for 4 days, along with about 170 other television meteorologists for the AMS Broadcasters Conference.  It’s a yearly event held in different parts of the country.  These events are always educational where ideas are traded and minds are refreshed.  We also get training on our respective weather systems too.  Tonight was a social event down at Bob Baron’s timeshare house; he’s the great guy that owns Baron Radar systems in Alabama.  They are in charge of upgrading all the USA NWS radars the next few years, and supply radars to TV stations as well.  A nice view from the dock don’t you think?  The funny thing is you can cross the whole country, then end up talking to two other weather people from Portland more than you do when you’re only 5 miles from them!  I think that’s because there are no distractions of work, family, etc…at a conference.  It’s ungodly hot during the day here…around 90 with baking sunshine and extremely humid (ocean is 85 degrees!).  Evenings are perfect with a quick drop down to lows around 80 degrees.  Nice with a gusty easterly trade wind.  No thunderstorms yet, which is unusual for late June.  This is their wet season (9″ for the month).  The people watching is incredible in Miami Beach…pretty much the variety that one would expect!  Last June the conference was in Portland, next year is either Norman, OK (radar!) or Burlington, VT.

Looks like I’m missing the arrival of summer at home, at least it’ll still be there on Sunday when I get back!   Enjoy the nice weather.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

69 Responses to Weather Conference

  1. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Eastern Oregon getting some t-storm action. Check out the Pendleton sat loop. You can see the overshooting tops.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pdt&area=west&type=vis&size=1

    And the Boise Radar. The Wallowa’s are getting hammered.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=cbx&product=N0R&loop=yes

    Watch how Joeseph goes from a nice sunny day to stormy in about an hour starting at ~6:30pm

    http://www.josephoregonweather.com/

  2. Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

    Iunno… We’ve seen only one year in at least 70 that hasn’t hit 90… So that gives us a 1.43% chance, 1/70th. That and the fact that, the five years leading up to 1954, we only saw a total of 41 90+ days and 0 100+ days. The five years leading up to 2010 we’ve seen 83 90+ days and 11 100+ days.

    Heck, even in the years after 1954 we saw only 4 days at 90+ in 1955, none in July/August… 5 90+ days in 1956 with ONE 100+ day… And only 3 days 90 or warmer in 1957… With all of them in September. We didn’t see 100+ again until 1958 and that was, once again, a lone 100+.

    Needless to say, we’ve switched into a warmer climate since then (for whatever reason) as 100s have become something we usually see once a year (the last time we didn’t hit 100 was in 2005) and 90+ far more frequently (~16 days a year on average over the last five, compared with the ~8 per year average of 1949 – 1953.)

    Couple all of that with the fact that we have 3 solid months that we can hit 90 and some change afterward (All of July, August and September… Our latest 90 was on October 5th, 1980) I’m going to say that we’re very likely to hit 90 again. Is it completely out of the question we won’t hit 90 this year? Nope. We’ve done it once… But the odds of it happening are incredibly low.

    tl;dr – It’s way too early and the odds are far too small to claim that we won’t hit 90 this year.

    Would I complain if we saw one 90+ day and stayed in the 70 – 83 sweet zone? Not one bit.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      I would really be surprised if we didn’t have some hot spell(s). If ENSO has anything to do with or overall weather. Going neutral to minus, I’d say things are ripe for an extended dry warm summer. Then the mother of all winters! 😉

  3. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Dull.

  4. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Like the 00Z run…even a little more “precip” has been thrown in…and no hot weather in the near future either.

    Reached 74.6° today

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Jesse, saying “very unlikely” is not the same thing as saying “never again.” I was pointing out that it might take another handful of decades for it to occur again. This summer I don’t think we will see just 70’s and 80’s.

    So I never specifically said the word “never”, did I?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      It might take another handful of decades – or it might happen this year. Impossible to say.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      And I am fully aware that archived weather data hasn’t been around for more than maybe 130 years. I would never deny something happening.

  6. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Worked with some other volunteers today backpacking 10,000 fingerling rainbow trout into Marion Lake. What a perfect day! Now lets bring on more summer! A good hot summer balances the droll gray winter.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Droll- Having a humorous, whimsical, or odd quality.

      ??

      Anyway, we can’t expect hot summers every year. Our temperate rainforests and glaciers would take a big hit if every summer was like last year. This is the Pacific Northwest. If you want a good hot summer every year, move south.

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      This is the Portland metro. We get above 100 about two times per year. If you want to move to a summerless climate where 90 degrees is not a question of when but if, then move north.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Should I follow you to Bellingham? :p

  7. A nice morning marine layer that burned off during the noon hour. Managed a high of 78.3F, a very nice day.

  8. Kyle says:

    Sucks you need “the key”. If Norton had a physical key instead of electronic what would it probably look like?

    I imagine it would be gold looking like the application.

  9. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Yeah a summer without any 90’s is highly unlikely. Portland always gets a couple of those here and there.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      We didn’t in 1954.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I’m not denying that ever occurred, just saying chances of that happening again is very unlikely.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Its sort of like betting on another F3 tornado in Vancouver. Odds are really stacked there.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Not really.

      Saying “never again” about any type of weather event, especially if it has happened in the past 50-100 years, is usually a bad idea.

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      Summer of 1954 was an extreme rare occurence. The chances of us having a repeat in our lifetimes are low at best. Saying this summer “could” be like 1954 is equivalent to saying after a modest snowstorm that the winter “could” be an 1861-62 repeat. In either case it’s premature and silly.

  10. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Hope the 12Z is wrong about the 10+ day range. That is U-G-L-Y looking, lots and lots of heat.

    I love the run up until day 10, though.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Well it is extremely unlikely you’ll make it through summer without any hot weather. I think this summer will wind up being alot cooler than probably any during the past decade, but I don’t think it will stack up with 1954.

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      Hopefully we torch.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I personally sympathize with Jesse. Anything over 90 is too hot for me. Of course now i live in a location with an average July high of 94. You can only imagine my personal hell. I pine for the cool refreshing summers of the Willamette Valley (excluding the 2009 blowtorch).

    • Runrain says:

      Isn’t La La land usually a bit more likely to pan out in the summer as opposed to the winter?

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      Today is/was perfect….

      73.1°

    • Mike (Orchards 255') says:

      18Z takes it back out..

      73.9F

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Yay!

      12Z Euro didn’t show any hint of the 12Z GFS’s heat pattern either.

      Agreed though, today is perfect summer weather. 74/49 so far.

  11. AdamInAumsville says:

    La la land temps are the warmest they have been so far this year. Downright hot actually. Probably won’t happen but entertaining.

  12. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oh and I tested out pictures at night time from my camera and they aren’t that great looking. So since my camera is not meant for this kind of stuff, I guess I will just call it a night and rely on you guys for pictures. I don’t wanna wake up too late either.

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    There are too many clouds covering the moon! I should have known… This better clear up.

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    It looks like I will actually see the lunar eclipse this time. I always end up missing it, but not this time. I am wide awake right now for some reason, so why not put my camera into some use? 😉

  15. Kyle says:

    If I uninstall Norton 360 for about 5 minutes will I be able to reinstall it or will I need a product key to prove my or rather Dad’s subscription?

    • jory (Sandy) says:

      Odds are you will need the key. Especially if you do a reboot afterward. Why do you need to uninstall it for just 5 minutes?

  16. big nel says:

    110 in Phoenix today, currenty 96 and pool temp 88…. nice full moon and cold beer

  17. Debbie - East Vancouver says:

    Oops just posted this under wrong name (awaiting moderation). So here it is again:

    Partial lunar eclipse tonight/early Saturday morning 3:16 a.m. Maximum eclipse 4:40 a.m. PST.

  18. Debbie Mahder says:

    Partial lunar eclipse tonight/early Saturday morning starting 3:16 a.m. PST. Maximum eclipse 4:40 a.m.

  19. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    71°…Perfect for me!

    Big storms in Minnesota, Iowa, and the Dakota’s…

  20. W7ENK says:

    I’m headed out to Central Oregon for the weekend… I hope the weather holds out! Crossing my fingers for an afternoon Thunderstorm.

    Play nice, childrens. 🙂

    Oh, and Dave? Quit spying on me, ya spook! 😛

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Have fun, I’ll send a Stray Albino Donkey out there from the land of intense showers.

  21. Kyle says:

    The reason why I “rant” a lot is because I don’t know how to respond to people who insult other blog members.

    The situation just makes me soooooooooo http://www.smileyhut.com/angry/ablow.gif
    and http://www.smileyhut.com/scared/eekout.gif

  22. Gidrons says:

    Mark, how about pictures of the beach instead of the skyline next time? jk

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I thought that would be a bit too much, so I just put on the other one. I’ll have a couple more pictures in the next few days. Cool NHC tour today and Everglades airboat ride (including friiiied gator nuggets!).

  23. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    You don’t see this very often:

    A rain producing spinning low pressure area in central California in late June!

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/pacsouthwest_lite_loop.php

    Some decent echoes.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=dax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  24. eugene in vancouver says:

    Tomato plants are blooming!

  25. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    High here was 79.1°…..

    Looks very chilly for the first few days of July if the current model trends hold up…

    59.6° currently

  26. Sifton says:

    Better turn out this year in Miami even with the economy huh? Go figure……

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      We just attended an art award ceremony in NYC for my daughter. It was the first year they filled the hotel. Not only that, they filled a second one and people were having to find their own hotel deals (not easy in Manhattan). They were sold out of tickets at Carnegie Hall for the ceremony and had record attendance at the Art Exhibit opening. All during these tough economic times. Had us puzzled, too.

    • Sifton says:

      Lol! Actually Sandi I was referring to where Mark said the conference last year was in Portland, so I looked at last years blog entry to see the turn out #. About 170 this year in Miami to under 100 in Portland last year. P-Town is just as nice as Miami right?…..right??

  27. W7ENK says:

    Head Jaanipäeva, minu ilma sõbrad!
    (Happy St. John’s Day/Midsummer’s Day, my weather friends!)

    One of the many reasons why I love summer in the PNW:
    Twilight at almost 11pm!

    Oh, and… *Pssst, your Venus is showing!* 😆

    [Milwaukie] 6/24/2010
    86.7°F
    52.7°F
    NNE 9.6 mph at 4:23p
    “Look straight a head, there’s nothing but blue sky…”
    🙂

  28. Jesse-Orchards says:

    I love the 00Z!

    No heat in sight, and possible record lows the first few days of July. 🙂

  29. TV Weather Producer says:

    Have fun. Wish I could’ve gone this year.

  30. Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

    Jeralous of you, Mark…

  31. Gregg-formerly Troutdale, now in Springfield says:

    Sounds like fun Mark. One of the first things I did when I got to Springfield was to set up my weather station. Currently at 70.3 with a nice breeze.

  32. pgiorgio says:

    1st? ever? 1st time

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