Finally Some Sun!

Much better!  The low clouds dissipated quickly around 11am today, revealing the bright yellow orb and blue skies.  Now it’s a bit hazier as some high clouds drift over, but I think I actually began to sweat while driving my car to work.  That was sweet.  Today is the warmest day out of the last 9, and could be the 2nd warmest so far this month…it has been a chilly June!  As of this morning, it’s the 2nd coldest June on record here in Portland, beat out only by 1954.  That year went on to have the 2nd coldest July and coldest August on record here in Stumptown.  Yuck…

We have some warmer nights on the way due to cloud cover and a warmer airmass…around 60 the next 2 to 3 nights.  Still warm tomorrow, then some morning low clouds Thursday should cool us a bit below average.  A big push Friday keeps us near 70, but no significant chance for showers.

Long Range:  A really tough one today.  Instead of a big, bad, cold trough swinging through here Sunday through Tuesday, models have retrogressed the pattern slightly, slowing down the arrival of the trough, plus it just isn’t quite as deep as it comes in.  The “problem” is a hot upper-high building just to our east over the weekend.  We are getting squeezed between the first real heat of the season over the Intermountain/Rockies area and cold showers to our west offshore.  That’s an uncomfortable spot to be in for forecasters, especially when models are not in agreement.  My gut feeling is the trough is going to be closer rather than farther away, but I’d sure love to just see it dig offshore instead!  We took the middle road, with warmer weather hanging in through Sunday (as our new 7 Day shows), then a downturn Monday/Tuesday, but not nearly as bad as what could have been.  Did anyone notice that last night’s 00z GFS showed thicknesses down to 540dm. Monday?  That’s snow to pass elevation; in the last few days of June!  As Steph and I were talking about a few minutes ago, a slight movement east or west of the forecast pattern could either put us right into cold showers early next week, or very warm weather.   Once again, we took the middle ground for now.

———————

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

150 Responses to Finally Some Sun!

  1. cgavic says:

    this weather year (2010) has been very weird.

    I just hope we have a sunny summer.

    • Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

      Every year has weird weather. But I agree. Lets have a toasty summer so we can be ready for the “Mother of All Winters”.

  2. cgavic says:

    beautiful today!

    sunshine and 78 degs.

    Mountain Festival is coming up soon.

    an enormous amount of people coming into sandy, hope the weather cooperates.

  3. Andrew Johnson says:

    Kind of a random question. If someone was working ten feet up on scafolding on a 97 degree day in direct sunlight against a brick building, what would the temperature against that building likely be?

    • W7ENK says:

      I don’t know for sure, but I’d venture to guess at least 110 degrees?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Random question maybe, but I’ve often wondered what temperatures people are enduring in the different environments they are required to work in. I worked as a welder for a period of time and actually brought a thermometer to work with me once when I was working on a Navy aircraft carrier. I was welding overhead on the flight deck and the temp in my body space area was 130 degrees, outside temp was about 85. Only worked one job that was hotter and that was building a nuclear reactor core, in which the steel had to be kept between 350 and 500 degrees. Didn’t check the temp there, but it was so hot you could only do about 15 min at a time between water/cool down breaks. If you stepped off the padding between you and the steel, the bottoms of your boots would melt (don’t know how much life I took off those boots that way). Of course all this welding was done with a leather jacket/hard hat/ coveralls/heavy gloves on.

    • daddyjack says:

      i was at a ballgame in newberg yesterday. it was around 80 for most the afternoon. at 6 i walked past the back of the dugout, (grey cinderblock) and i could feel heat actually coming off of it like it was heated inside. i know this was not the case, but it was really cool. (well not cool) lol

  4. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

    Quite an active week in the East Pacific with three named storms and one major hurricane.

    It’s nice to see we have an East Pacific Floater Satellite links now. Here’s Celia which is now cat 4. No threat to anyone not on a boat nearby. She should produce some nice surfing conditions on south facing beaches in so. Cal before long.

    Nice symmetrical looking storm with good outflow and a large eye at the end.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-vis.html

  5. stilllearning says:

    I keep seeing 1954 come up when people are comparing our weather to past years. Has our weather been similar to that year? If so, what was the weather like that winter (and into 1955)?

  6. W7ENK says:

    Nice sun ring!

  7. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    An entire summer with highs no higher than yesterday is kind of hard to get. there is at least one or two weeks in the middle of every summer with some highs between 90-100F.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      No, there have been plenty of summers without a lot of heat.

      Look up years like 1954, 1955, 1964, 1976, 1993.

    • Justin (Brush Prairie) says:

      Jesse, do you read what you write?

      On one hand, you listed about five years out of the 70 that PDX has been around for. Not “a lot” by any stretch of the imagination.

      Secondly, Timmy’s post says that one to two weeks with 90+ temps included occur in just about every summer, which is factually correct. Two of the years you listed, 1955 and 1993, featured 95+ heat events. In 1955’s case parts of the Portland metro actually eclipsed the 100 mark in September. Even in our coolest summers, Portland almost always finds a way to hit the mid 90’s. 1954 and 1976 are the only two major recent exceptions that didn’t include multiple 90+ days throughout the metro area.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I misread his post, I thought he meant one or two weeks straight with highs 90-100.

  8. Karl Bonner says:

    I wonder what Mark was thinking by “not nearly as bad as what could have been.” What might the worst-case scenario for the next trough have looked like in terms of temps and precip for the Willamette Valley area?

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Models still show the deep trough making it throgh, just a little later than previously advertised. A few stray runs yesterday showed it hanging up offshore, which Mark was banking on with that statement.

      At face value, a trough this

      http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010062412!!/

      Would give most Willamette Valley locations scattered showers with highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s to around 50 this time of year (basically a 10+ degree negative departure), with colder lows on the backside of it as it moves east, maybe 30s some valley spots, 40s most locations.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      A trough *like this.

      That link turned out weird, too. When you open it, under parameters switch it to “Geopotential 500hPa and Temperature at 850 hPa” to get a more readable verision, with 500mb contours and color-coded 850mb temps.

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Interesting how during much of the year, the coldest nights occur immediately after a trough system when the skies clear out but the air overhead is still cool. Of course if the rain was too heavy the cold might not come until the second clear night, provided the air dries out before it heats up.

      Interestingly the opposite scenario has been happening the past couple weeks. I expected after all that early June rain that as soon as the sunshine burst out, we’d be dealing with dewpoints well into the 60s (63-65?) as evaporation and plant transpiration pumped the air full of humidity. But we ended up topping out in the high 50s during the first couple sunny/warm days and other days we haven’t even gotten past 55. So it dried out before it heated up.

      Or maybe not…it could just be that the offshore flow is dry enough that we haven’t gotten the chance to accumulate that much humidity before it is blown away. Maybe if we get some warmish-hot (80-85 west side) days without any dry advection over the next week or so, the dewpoints will sneak up past 60. But the longer the weather stays dry, the less soil and plant moisture there will be to work with.

      I wonder how much longer before the soil and vegetation starts to get into a summery, quasi-Mediterranean drought that browns out everything and sends the fire danger through the stratosphere?

      I’m

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I don’t see any warm/humid weather coming up.

      It looks cool and wet enough on the models that I think the green may last for awhile yet, maybe mid-July? It could last in some form all summer.

  9. Gidrons says:

    The GFS program is changing again:

    UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN…THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
    ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE GLOBAL
    FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/. THE RESOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST
    MODEL WILL BE INCREASED FROM T382 /35 KM/ TO T574 /27 KM/.
    THE HIGH RESOLUTION PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE EXTENDED
    FROM 180 HRS TO 192 HRS. WITH THIS EXTENSION 3 HOURLY OUTPUT
    WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE OUT TO 192 HOURS.

    THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DEFINITION OF
    PARAMETERS IN THE 192 HOUR PRESSURE GRIB /PGRB/ AND FLUX
    FILES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODEL
    PHYSICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CHANGE. IN ADDITION
    MODIFICATIONS WILL BE MADE TO THE CONTENTS OF THE GLOBAL DATA
    ASSIMILATION SYSTEM /GDAS/ AND GFS PGRB FILES.

    CHANGES IN MODEL PHYSICS INCLUDE:

    RADIATION AND CLOUD OVERLAP
    GRAVITY WAVE DRAG
    HURRICANE RELOCATION
    NEW PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEME
    NEW MASS FLUX SHALLOW CONVECTION
    UPDATED DEEP CONVECTION SCHEME
    POSITIVE DEFINITE TRACER TRANSPORT SCHEME

  10. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    12z GFS mainly dry, with the exception of next Wednesday, but that looks to be pretty light, and it dries out quickly. There isn’t a lot of ‘heat’ in that run, but at least it’s looking more like a summer pattern.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Thank god for the lack of heat on these runs.

      If we can have a summer like that all year, I’ll be fine, especially after last year.

      Yesterday was actually pushing it for me. 83 is close to the very upper limit of my outdoor comfort range, unless I’m swimming.

    • I agree with Jesse. My high yesterday was just shy of 80°. A summer no warmer than that would be ideal.

      Currently 68 perfect degrees.

    • Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

      Yep, I agree. I’m happy with dry and 75, as long as there’s a decent amount of blue sky in there. I remember building a fence around my place in June of ’96 — it seemed like day after day of sunshine and 75 degrees. It was perfect. (goes to look up historical data)

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m going to add my vote for the max temp of 80. This is actually beyond what I prefer, but its tolerable, especially if some cloud cover is available.

    • Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

      June 3-14, 1996 — high temps ranged from 69 to 78 thru that stretch.

    • Joshua says:

      Nothing higher than low 80s would be great. It is doubtful, but one can hope.

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      I simply can’t stand a single weather pattern for more than a couple weeks, even if it’s perfect. I need some variety to be happy. So while a summer of 70 – 83 would be amazing, especially if it were sunny, I’d get bored after two or three weeks. I’d want some change from that and, with how cold and wet it’s been, I’d love to see some high heat.

      I’m one of the weird ones, I guess. I LOVE the biting, searing heat, 95+ is a great range for me… But to honest, I can only handle that for a day or two at a time. Reaching it just once this summer would take the sting off of the really chilly winter filled spring we had.

  11. Gidrons says:

    Here is a followup comment from “Prism” on that other site about the upcoming cold winter. The original post is below, but no reposted due to its length.

    “La Nina is a SST measurement but has implications on the atmosphere. If it is a classic La Nina, wind shear in the tropics will be less over the North Atlantic and thus allow for enhanced tropical storm development. Of course there are other parameters such as SST >28 degs C, available moisture, lack of Shara dust, and a bunch of other factors that make or break tropical formation. However, shear is one of the biggies, or the lack thereof that helps TS formation. So, if La Nina is influencing the atmosphere and ultimate the Pacific NW weather later in the year, tropical storms and strengthens of hurricanes will be a key signature for whether this is a true La Nina for us. I have no doubts that it will be but the hurricane season forecasts have been largely a bust since 2005. Tropical systems follow another cycle of their own and may be under that influence (whatever it is-NAO perhaps?) and no matter how good this La Nina is, it might not have the same characteristics for a stormy cold Pacific NW winter”

    • SilentReader says:

      Is it only me or does it seem that every summer we get the “winter will be super cold and snowy” forecast from someone?

      I guess my point is It is always interesting to see winter forecasting in the beginning of summer. They all seem to report colder and tons of snow. Don’t seem to really see many ever forecasting “warm and dry” on these summer-casts. it is always cold and snowy.

      Seems to rarely pan out for the PNW. that darn warm ocean is just a pest and that darn mtn range.

      Funny how we already get excited about winter. I think we set ourselves up for those big disappointments we see every year by hopeful statements like these.

      I sure hope it pans out and I am shown totally wrong. but if I made a forecast every summer that said snowy winter eventually I would be right.

    • W7ENK says:

      SilentReader, I think you just nailed it with your last statement.

      😆

      Their secret’s out! Now what?!?

    • Gidrons says:

      The forecast for last winter was warmer and drier than normal, based mostly on expected el nino conditions.

      I’ve been one of the “lucky” ones, living in the hills above Scappoose. The two preceding years I had cumulative snow over 4′ each year, with some sort of snow on the ground for over a month. I believe the winter of 07-08 saw record snow at the 2000-3000 ft level.

    • SilentReader says:

      if i recall, last year, there was a lot of speculation that it would be a repeat of the 2008 snow event.

      I also seem to recall, although my memory is quite foggy, that the lack of sun spots was also cited as a possible feature that would negate any el-nino effects.

      It’s not that I am saying any of the above are true factual reasons for a winter to be cold or dry just that there seems to be always a reason cited to justify a cold and snowy winter.

      I just find it a little humorous is all.

      How is it we can barely get accurate forecasts for 3-10 days but they can tell us a winter is going to be snowy 6 months from now?

  12. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    One picture perfect am…Sunny 64.4° after an overnight low of 53.6..

  13. Not much sea ice left in Barrow:

    • Gidrons says:

      I wonder if the town nickname is Barren. Glad I don’t live there. I noticed the white house didn’t have any windows on the ground floor.

  14. chiefWright says:

    My official start to summer yesterday-
    Windows open in the house in the house overnight for cooling, not just fresh air, and must put the windowshade up in the car during the day.
    Hooooooray!!!!!!!

  15. Runrain says:

    Sounds like we’re getting a clearer picture from Al Gore on his concept of “global warmimg”…!

  16. 49.7° and sunny skies this morning.

  17. W7ENK says:

    Well, what a beautiful day! I was certainly surprised.

    [Milwaukie] 6/23/2010
    86.4°F High
    56.2°F Low
    WSW 10.5 mph at 5:14p
    precip = null

  18. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Eastern Washington had a long track severe thunderstorm. 1.25″ hail reported in a 6 inch depth in Grant County. This single cell storm developed around 6:45 pm with rotation indicated by radar, and then spread into a severe line with damaging winds. By 9:00 pm an outflow boundary was visible on radar imagery. Not exactly a widespread event as far as reports, but still looked impressive on radar.

    I will put together some images of that storm overnight.

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