Much better! The low clouds dissipated quickly around 11am today, revealing the bright yellow orb and blue skies. Now it’s a bit hazier as some high clouds drift over, but I think I actually began to sweat while driving my car to work. That was sweet. Today is the warmest day out of the last 9, and could be the 2nd warmest so far this month…it has been a chilly June! As of this morning, it’s the 2nd coldest June on record here in Portland, beat out only by 1954. That year went on to have the 2nd coldest July and coldest August on record here in Stumptown. Yuck…
We have some warmer nights on the way due to cloud cover and a warmer airmass…around 60 the next 2 to 3 nights. Still warm tomorrow, then some morning low clouds Thursday should cool us a bit below average. A big push Friday keeps us near 70, but no significant chance for showers.
Long Range: A really tough one today. Instead of a big, bad, cold trough swinging through here Sunday through Tuesday, models have retrogressed the pattern slightly, slowing down the arrival of the trough, plus it just isn’t quite as deep as it comes in. The “problem” is a hot upper-high building just to our east over the weekend. We are getting squeezed between the first real heat of the season over the Intermountain/Rockies area and cold showers to our west offshore. That’s an uncomfortable spot to be in for forecasters, especially when models are not in agreement. My gut feeling is the trough is going to be closer rather than farther away, but I’d sure love to just see it dig offshore instead! We took the middle road, with warmer weather hanging in through Sunday (as our new 7 Day shows), then a downturn Monday/Tuesday, but not nearly as bad as what could have been. Did anyone notice that last night’s 00z GFS showed thicknesses down to 540dm. Monday? That’s snow to pass elevation; in the last few days of June! As Steph and I were talking about a few minutes ago, a slight movement east or west of the forecast pattern could either put us right into cold showers early next week, or very warm weather. Once again, we took the middle ground for now.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen