The Live Radar has been a reliable old friend lately…we’ve seen measurable rain 24 of the last 26 days here in Portland. Whew! But that is about to end, in fact only a few light showers are left on the SE side of the Metro area at 10:30pm. We are now in 2nd place for the June rainfall record at PDX. Even though we only need about a quarter inch to break the record, that appears very unlikely in the next 7 days…that’s right, no rain likely through the end of next week. Time to dry out and warm up!
Now this doesn’t mean the next 7 days will be all sunny though; don’t think we’ll suddenly be in the 80s for the next week. We get a nice ridge of high pressure overhead during the weekend with 500mb heights up over 580dm, then the ridge is flattened out by a weak trough that lingers through much of next week. So real warm weather still on tap for the weekend. We might only get TO 80 degrees on Sunday because a northwesterly marine push kicks in during the afternoon. Timing is everything on this, so if it’s delayed we could be 82, if it rushes in we only get to 76 maybe. One thing I’ve noticed over the years is that northwest marine pushes, as opposed to southwest pushes, generally give us far less low cloud cover. So hopefully I haven’t overdone the mostly cloudy skies for Monday…much cooler either way though. Then with a weak, but probably dry, trough over us Tuesday and beyond we should see very nice seasonal weather…highs 70-75 degrees and DRY!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Skies rapidly clearing now in Vancouver from the NE.
Reading the AFD from the Riverton, Wyoming NWS, getting ready for my trip:
TRAVEL OVER SOUTH PASS WILL
BE HAMPERED BY HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG NE WINDS CAUSING
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A RAPID
WARMUP EXPECTED ALONG WITH A RAPID SNOWMELT AND MORE FLOODING
POTENTIAL OF AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
18Z GFS @ TTD
Hour 300 = 97º (June 23rd?)
850mb temps progged at 24ºc at that time.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
Warmest la la land number of the year!!
Hopefully we’ll all be “livin’ high” tomorrow (my grandma used to use that expression to describe people who were in the life of luxury in any sense — kinda like sitting atop a velvet pillow). I must say that I’ve lived through droughts and it’s not pretty. Lived in CA during the big drought in the ’70’s and also lived in TN in a house that relied on well water. When the water was gone, we were SOL. No showers, no baths (unless it was shared with siblings or in the creek) and hauling water from the creek to give the garden a drink. Lawns were dead and if you washed your car you might as well have been a criminal. That said, I’m over this rain in June. I’m sure the plants will just explode when the hot weather hits and then I’ll expect everyone to complain about their weeds and vines (mine have been going nuts for a month or so). But I think we’ll be in blackberry heaven come August! Anyone see the article in the paper today about the groundwater/aquifier deficit? When that dries up, it’s gonna be lame. Anyway, cheers to all of us who haven’t totally given up on liking the rain!! And cheers to the sun lovers who will hopefully be on cloud nine tomorrow (oops, sorry — no clouds allowed,right)? 😉
It’s almost 4 pm. Where’s the sun?
56.5 degrees at 3pm.
I am hoping for 25 degrees warmer tomorrow.
Hey, at least it’s dry out there today! Though I somehow managed to pick up 0.04″ since midnight? Hmm… So I guess today wasn’t totally dry.
Our cold, gray May/June is going out kicking and screaming. Not sure we get to 65 today.
Yeah, I had a feeling this was going to happen…
Let me guess, no more 80s this weekend anymore, right?
Oh well. Such is life in the PNW. 😕
Check out near the southern tip of Baja. You can see the low clouds moving north, and a feature moving north (rather linear). Do you think this is a gravity wave?
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6
Other than that, always interesting to watch the wake in the low clouds from the islands off of the Baja coast. Also, check out the very narrow string of clouds in the Gulf of California
The Euro shows an impressive (but mainly dry) trough coming in early-mid next week, followed by a stronger ridge with a low off of the California coast…could make for a good thunderstorm pattern.
*http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
What do days 8 and 9 look like (next weekend)?
You know how to look at models, right?
Kinda, not really. I’m no expert at this stuff, but I’m learning… slowly.
I see what the link is showing, but that’s at the 850mb level, right? So, I’m not entirely sure how that translates to the land I live in, which is roughly what, 1007.82mb? Something like that.
I could assume what it means, but assuming anything only leads to looking foolish. It’s better to ask someone who knows, IMHO.
53.4F in this sandbox scientific weather station.
Do my emails dissapear in cyberspace in this sandbox?
I thought Mark said “no rain” today….how come it’s currently raining in Camas??????
NWS did mention morning showers transitioning to afternoon sunshine. I wasn’t looking at KPTV news this morning.
I didn’t hear the forecast on the 10:00 news yesterday, but I heard several times yesterday that there might be sprinkles here and there this morning. Should end this morning though.
Thanks Timmy and Sarah! 🙂 We have outdoor graduation tonight, so I’m praying for some nice sunshine…or at least NO rain!! Have a great Friday everyone!
It’s just a little morning drizzle from the marine layer of low clouds. The rest of the day will be dry… and hopefully the sun will be able to burn the low clouds off by this afternoon!
I think Mark would compare today as the end of a long wet period to riding a bike up a big hill for a lot of miles. After what seems like an endless strain, it’s just one last push and you get to the top and get to enjoy the scenery before continuing the ride.
We know full well there will eventually be more hills, but for now the worst is over, and we all deserve to rest for a bit.
Your hills are pretty much over until next October. Its June 11th and this the average lowest precipitation period by far up until September, and even if you had a wet summer it really would’nt be wet at all. On average the 4 months of June-Sept are drier than the month of January alone averaging less than 6 inches of rain in those 4 months as opposed to over 6 inches in January. So really the odds are very low at this point of anyone suffering from a lack of sun or too much rain the next 4 months.
Remember though…averages are just a collection of extremes! Plus above normal rainfall in November when we’re used to rain everyday is different than rain every day in May and June.
Realistically if July was above average rainfall we would be talking about 5-10 days of heavy rain by July standards. The rest of the month would be partially cloudy/sunny, its just how virtually every July is. On the extreme side of little precip its possible to go rainless in July. If July were wetter than average, the odds are August would be different as rarely do wet springs mean wet summers. We know from looking at past data not to expect more than a few consecutive months at a time of the same extreme. I see no reason to think this summer wont be an average of the extremes which to me isnt so extreme in the summer months either way.
I remember getting snowed on at Diamond Lake..on July 7th. 41 degrees, a leaky tent & 5 kids…and wake up to snow. Glad there was ONE cabin for rent that night…..and Glad it is only a memory 🙂
That would be one example of a cool July day and it was probably sunny one week later and in the 70’s at the same spot 5K foot elev.
Ideally in the summer months you look at total number of cloud/precip days vs. total precip. As we have seen already this year, one thunderstorm can dump a lot of rain, while 10 minutes later, it’s sunny. That also goes for the more scattered nature of showers/storms in the summer as well. The area that got dumped on by that thunderstorm was relatively small while areas surrounding it got maybe 1/10th of the rainfall.
Absolutely, T-storms can be quick heavy rain producers. If two days in July has heavy T-storms over Portland you could easily see the July ave. rainfall exceeded.
Summer is often like that with respect to rainfall totals. All the more reason to not doubt a great relief summer ahead with plenty of Vitamin D production
Battle Ground Lake — A wet first half of 2010
10.96″ of Rain since May 1st
33.97″ of Rain since January 1st
[Milwaukie]
59.4°F High
51.1°F Low
S 15.4 mph at 1:11p
0.31″ Since midnight
3.51″ Monthly total
This weekend is going to be insanely hot… Especially since I’m not acclimated to anything above 73. It’s going to be interesting, but I’m insanely happy that the pattern is changing to something more seasonal. That’s all I really asked for… Don’t care if we get really hot, just want seasonal temps.
Enough cold, winter’s gone.
Hear hear!
Sandbox or no sandbox, next week’s weather forecast is right up my alley…not too hot and not too cold…
Relatively cool 51°….0.27″ rain today
Always depends on what kids go in the sandbox
Ooh! A new sandbox… is everyone gonna play nice in this one?
Yeah, except you have to go in a scoop out the kitty poop daily apparently. But yes, fresh sand tonight.
Thanks for the update, Mark. I haven’t been a part of this blog for very long, but I really do appreciate your efforts. I know how laborious it can be just to maintain one of these things without all the riff-raff! This, on top of your ‘day job’ and family life, it’s a wonder you ever find any time for yourself that doesn’t involve crying yourself to sleep in the corner of the studio. 😕
Keep up the good work! I wouldn’t want to have to write you a letter blaming you for all this rain… 😛 j/k
Well this warm ‘spell’ might set everybody straight that needs it …………
lord knows it will me!!!