Local Flooding Possible Soon

I don’t usually post on Sundays, but after checking out the radar…whew!  Appears to be a solid line of moderate to heavy rainfall across the west/north side of the metro rainfall.  Add very little movement to that you get a ton of rain.  As of 8am PDX has already had almost 1/2″, Hillsboro about 3/4″.  Over 1″ amounts are likely in those spots in the next couple of hours, definitely worthy of localized stream/street flooding.   Eastside just has the usual light rain/drizzle slop this morning, so unless the line shifts a bit there shouldn’t be any problem.

What a mess for farmers over in Washington County now….after this morning more flooded fields waiting to be planted.  That was the largest complaint I heard from the “school closing event” yesterday down in Monitor.  “We can’t get out in the fields because they are too wet”.  Several said that if they didn’t get the “row crops”  in by June 15th they wouldn’t be able to plant at all because then those would be too late and run into the usual late-season veggies at the canneries/frozen food packers.    Row crops are things like broccoli, beans, etc…  Okay, enough of the farming report…let’s hope the rain band moves on out of here in the next few hours.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

179 Responses to Local Flooding Possible Soon

  1. muxpux says:

    haha, i woke up to cloudy skies and thought, great, one day we have a chance to see mid 70’s and longview gets socked in a marine layer. then i checked out the satellite loop, and was relieved to find out im not the only one whos cloudy.

  2. Battle Ground Brian says:

    12z GFS – I just fell in love !!!
    Here are 4 reasons why…

    1) Hour 129 — 91 degrees at PDX for this Sunday

    2) Rainfall = None from 6-10 to 6/23 (13 days)

    3) 6/16 to 6/23 period we see at least 4-5 days in the 80’s with 850mb temps rising to +20C on 6/23.

    4) This strong ridge will hit during the longest days of the year making for max sun time.

  3. Kyle says:

    The times I’ve had good luck are always when I shut down my emotions.

    • Yevpolo1990 says:

      Man please keep it weather related not emotion related because then everything will go off like a bomb

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Yeah… It’s a weather blog not a therapy blog.

  4. Kyle says:

    It’s warmed to 58F and has anyone noticed that having emotions are evil?

    Seems like all my bad luck are always when I don’t shut down my emotions.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’ve noticed. I’ve created problems for myself more than once with runaway emotions.

  5. Yevpolo1990 says:

    A daily look at the satelite gave me a feeling that we will never see summer again…
    This system could be quite underestimated by the models!

  6. Currently 51.2°, high/mid level clouds thick enough to block the sunshine.

    A low of 45.6° today.

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    This is nuts!

    It is JUNE and a situation is present worthy of creating a zoomed WV image? You have to be kidding me.


    This system offshore is looking really healthy. I am really loving that dry slot continuing to be pronounced and improved darkening indicating strengthening is likely underway. The only thing I don’t seem to see on IR loop is a good dump of cold air that could be ingested into the dry slot wrapped into the low which would allow for a more rapid cyclogensis stage possible. I just think this low may be under 1000mb quite easily.

    6z GFS again continues to show a relatively weak low 1004-1008mb moving onshore with a loose, bagging circulation thus weak gradient couplet as well. Looking at characteristics on this image I see nothing of the sort. Unless the jet energy really dies rapidly inside of 130 W we may have a surprise of sorts on our hands. Hmmmm…

    • Is this the system that Mark is forecasting on and off showers for?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      This is tonight/Wednesday’s storm.

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      I hope we get more rain than expected with this system. We might as well break the monthly record while we are suffering.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Batten down the hatches? Whats the projected path?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Pappoose, towards Newport as of right now.

      Brian, Northeast Pacific AMSU Precipitable Water shows 1.00″ to 1.50″ with this system.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Thanks Rob, just curious about wind potential. Somewhat surprised the NWS seems totally unconcerned about this system.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Well I assume jet energy/support just won’t be there to produce a wind event/storm thus the storm doesn’t wrap up or deepen.

  8. Battle Ground Brian says:

    6z GFS – Yielding 84 both saturday and sunday at KTTD.

    Low:43.9 this morning. Coyote spotted in my back yard at 6:30am

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      You’re the Terminator. You’ve got this situation under control.

      I saw a max temp of 86! IF that transpires it will be a shock to our systems.

  9. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Still a bit of offshore flow this morning,


  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Good morning.

    I awoke to sunshine and clear skies and it remained so throughout my morning walk. However now it has clouded up in a hurry. It looks like low clouds have developed, but now also high/mid-level clouds are overspreading the area out ahead of the next system offshore. 70’s today? We’ll see…. I’m not convinced we make it there.

  11. Kyle says:

    W7enk what did you think of the weather over the weekend when you were over here?

    53.5F on my Oregon Craptific *scientific* therometer and sleepless nite. 😦

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Power nap time again.

    • W7ENK says:

      Kyle, the weather in Silverton was spectacular on Saturday! After our gig, a bunch of us walked over (right across the street, actually) to the new Seven Brides Brewery for some food and good beers. The big windows to facing to the South offered an awesome view of all the creepy clouds rolling in. I would have sworn there was going to be a thunderstorm, but no such luck.

      I really like the Silverton/Mt. Angel area. I have a number of friends that live around there… I could live there. 🙂

  12. W7ENK says:

    [Milwaukie] 6/7/2010
    73.8°F High
    54.3°F Low
    SW 10.5 mph at 11:39p

  13. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I know the further out in time, the more likelihood of error..but really GFS? 30 next Tuesday? That’s about as believable as the 80s for Sunday!

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Anyone checked WV Loop tonight? or the models?

    Quite a nice looking system developing out near 144.1 W, 42 N, and I’ll go out on a limb and say that both the 00z MM5-NAM and WRF-GFS are grossly underestimating it. Take a look for yourself.
    WV Image

    WV Loop
    Does that look like a developing baggy, weak 1004-1008mb low to you? It doesn’t to me. Nice looking baroclinic leaf, good organization, circulation tightening, darkening with a newly emerged dry slot appearing….

    Any thoughts?

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      I had the same thoughts. Looks like it is starting to curl up nicely. Definitely underestimated by the models.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Thanks for reply. Yeah it sure might and seems worth watching.

  15. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Temp: 61.5F
    Dewpoint: 43F

    Clear skies as far as I can see in any direction. It has been quite awhile since I can say that. It’s going to be a perfect morning and day tomorrow. I hope everyone takes advantage of it.

  16. Kyle says:

    Dewpoints are well in the 40s so
    I expect outlying areas like Battle Ground/Forest Grove and especially Jesse’s house to hit the mid-40s tonight.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Anyone with accurate thermometers should be well into the 40s by morning. I guess that leaves you out, Kyle.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Frequent lightning or what 😮

  18. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Latest models have toned down the weekend high temps. Looks like 80’s not so likely now! The record will fall at the airport and may also fall at downtown as well. We shall see.


  19. Kyle says:

    Hey bloggers:

    Are we looking at chilly sub 40F
    brrrr nights ahead with this cool/clear pattern? I certainly hope so. 🙂

    What is an artic airmass in June like?

  20. Current temp and high is 71.5°, nice!

  21. W7ENK says:

    70.0°F It’s nice out today. 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      Ditto! I LOVE this airmass compared to yesterday’s stickyness:

      If it were like this all summer I’d be one happy camper.

  22. Kyle says:

    68F and much drier dew points bloggers. Woo hoo!

    They think if it’s 75F to 80F and sunny at LA in March that it’s 75F-80F and sunny here in Oregon which is why you will often find the air conditioner on at safeway when you think: “Why the hell is the air on here?” It’s not a heatwave.

  23. Kyle says:

    In response to Garron’s post and anybody else who may be intrested:

    The reason why the apartments had their sprinklers on is because they are very likely controlled centrally from far away.

    Most apartments are run by a company which may have several complexes across the nation to rent out for tenants.

    Same thing at Safeway:

    I can’t say for the older original Safeway Stores that aren’t/haven’t been remodeled but I do know this:

    My dad worked at Safeway and learned that their heat and air also works that way.

    There is actually a control knob in Los Angeles where the Safeway HQ are and they decide the temp for all the buildings it’s connected too.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      Thanks Kyle, I can’t believe that there aren’t sensors available to control the flow of water to lawns in this day and age? It seems that in this day of going green and saving the planet that there must be cheap solutions to wasting energy. It makes more sense that we are in a recovery economy, and we need to simplify, and control things that are wasteful, recyclable, recoverable, like RAIN WATER! They’ve only been able to do that for a thousand years? Not to get on my soap box, but when will we really wake up and start making a difference instead of making a puddle on a rainy day?

    • Kyle says:

      They *liberals and Republicans*
      will wake up when they realize we need to do things in a moderate way and not using alarminsim to pocket their money books on both goverment parties who are running the show.

      You think THIS is bad they actually want to control the heat and air conditioning in our homes though at least it’s not in a “do it now” stage.

  24. umpire says:

    Talked to my Mom, who lives in Boise, last night. They had a severe thunderstorm on Friday, and the NWS for Boise says at least three funnel clouds were spotted, including one by the NWS office. They’ve also had enough rain to cause flooding (and apparently some flooding in eastern Oregon as well.) Boise’s annual rainfall averages around 12 inches per year – they’re already past that for the water year, and about 8.3 inches for the calendar year. Looks like we’ve had some leftovers that we sent their way!

  25. Battle Ground Brian says:

    12z GFS? There this thing called 80’s and sunny and the new run is all about it.. Yes!!!

  26. Garron near washington square says:

    2.06″ so far in the last 2 days in my gauge? is that even possible? I went for my Sunday morning run and I couldn’t believe the water and mud I ran into. There were way more fireplaces burning than BBQs. Here’s the funny thing, or sad depending on your opinion, the apt. complexes I was jogging past had their sprinklers turned on while their lawns were literally floating away! Again thanks to everyone on here that works as hard as Mr. Nelsen weather geeking all their weather facts, it saves me hours of time researching all the numbers myself.

    • Garron near washington square says:

      On the same note: These are the days I dreamed of when I was a boy. I used to make my own weather maps on a chalk board using a talking barometer that gave local conditions and record my own weather forecasts on a cassette recorder, I kept track of my track record, and hand wrote all my data and details. Most kids my age looked up to sports legends, I looked up to Jim Bosley, and Jim Little as my childhood heroes. Now, we have it made with the internet and all the heroes on here that give their data to make a complete picture of weather around us. What a wonderful weather world we live in, I wish I could see a 100 years into the future to see what we’d have to look forward to…

  27. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Today’s Convective Outlook

    12z SLE sounding wasn’t the greatest, but I do see some indicators that could make things more favorable particularly improved lapse rates and colder air aloft (-20c or so)

    Not a great deal of instability projected, but this time of year it doesn’t take much heating or sun to see CAPE values of at least 250-500J/kg develop. A very weak CAP shown as well. Convective Temp: 61F. Max Temp: 65F We should exceed both in my opinion. Also the latest SREF scan develops instability later this afternoon.

    I will monitor convective trends and thermodynamic fields today.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Let us see what can be scraped up today. Perhaps a Stray Albino Donkey, or maybe a Java Jet Stream?

    • Jim in N. Tabor says:

      Thanks Rob, what would be the chances for any activity this afternoon, slim to none ?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      5% … We will be fighting progressively higher pressure which will mean increasing subsidence. That would kill any cloud development growth in itself.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      However it is June, there is moisture, and some instability is reasonable to develop…. I’ll keep an eye on stuff this afternoon..

  28. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:


    Well there’s no point in waiting till the end of the month as it’s already a done deal.

    With yesterday’s deluge, PDX passed another mark it has not hit in over six years, and that is this is the first time since Aug-Oct ’05 that we have had three consecutive months with above average rainfall. Woo-hoo!

    Will July be above average? It has not been above average at KHIO since at least 2000 which either means it’s definitely time, or it’s not going to happen as usual.

    Note: All major reporting stations in NW Oregon are above their monthly average for June with the exception of Eugene which is close to average.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High ~280' elevation) says:

      Err….I’m realizing that Aug 2005 was about 5 years ago, not 6. Not awake yet obviously.

  29. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Blue sky!

    Woke up around 5:15 AM and it was raining. Good morning everyone. The rain has now ended and yep some blue sky appearing.

  30. ..only netgear i’ve heard of are routers and such…never have gotten any malware or viruses from the blog!…

  31. Mr Data says:

    It’s from a thing called Net Gear which I hopefully got rid of as I certianlly didn’t install it.

    Some programs come bundled with stuff you don’t ask for and I was just bitter about it and about life and just took it out on this old blog because I use it to escape the harsh real world. 😦

    I wish I wasn’t so bitter.

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      Mr Data….do you use a router? Do you have more than one computer in the house? Netgear might be the router program. Hope this helps 🙂

  32. W7ENK says:

    I’ve been away from the internets all weekend, but I certainly wasn’t away from the weather! What a set of extremes… well, maybe not extremes per se, but certainly some serious contrast between Saturday and Sunday.

    I spent yesterday afternoon in Silverton, singing a private concert for my good friend’s mother who is dying from brain cancer. The weather yesterday was spectacular! Most of the day, I had my little buddy with me (it’s his grandmother that has the cancer) all day, and he wasn’t dealing with it well, and his mom wasn’t dealing with him well, so I kept him with me, distracted and happy all weekend. We were up until 4:30 this morning killing zombies on ‘Left 4 Dead 2’ on my computer. I noticed it started raining around 3am, as I had the back sliding door open for the nice air. I finally tucked the kid into bed when I noticed the birds had begun chirping.

    Today, what a washout! Like I said, it started raining around 3am, rained REALLY HARD around 8:30, which prompted me to move out to the couch in the living room to crash, so I could hear when the kid got up. I finally had to wake him at a quarter to 11! 😆

    It rained pretty much all day, until maybe 4-4:30? I wasn’t paying much attention, all I know is I drove the kid all over the place pricing some video games he wanted, and it rained pretty much the whole time.

    So, here are my numbers from Saturday, since I didn’t post them last night:

    [Milwaukie] 6/5/2010
    77.2°F High
    45.1°F Low
    SW 10.1 mph at 4:30p
    Not a drop

    Today was a bit wetter…

    [Milwaukie] 6/6/2010
    66.6°F High
    57.6°F Low
    8.7 mph at 9:23p
    0.83″ Since 3am

    2.83″ Total June rainfall


    Oh man, I’m tired! I can’t brain, I has the dumb…

    Nye-nye u_u

  33. yevpolo1990 says:

    Well I was at the Timbers match and we were SOAKED at halftime!
    Overall total for KHIO 1.89 inches of rain

  34. Kyle says:

    This site is giving my PC a virus and I got to shut it down.

    Happend twice on this blog.

    I keep getting this net gear coming up continously.

    • W7ENK says:

      Umm… I haven’t taken a hit on either my firewall or my AntiVirus from this site… I don’t think it’s the blog.

    • Cherie in Vernonia says:

      Is net gear an anti virus program?

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Netgear is a brand of routng equipment. Though, the router itself would never try to install an app on your system.

  35. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    Record Rainfall Continues

    * Note – permission is granted to quote or reuse, as long as credit is given to author.

    As of 9pm Sunday evening, the Portland International Airport has received 3.08″ of rainfall in just the first 6 days of June! Sunday alone saw 1.47″ (as of 9pm) of rain with 1.04″ of that falling from 5am to 11am Sunday morning alone! Now that is some amazing June rainfall! Nearly double the average for the entire month of June, in just the first 6 days. The record wettest June at the Portland International Airport is 4.06″ set in 1984. If the current pattern continues, we could easily have ourselves the wettest June on record. We have just under an inch to go and 24 days left in the month to do it. June’s precipitation, coupled with May’s, brings the two-month total to just under 8″ of rainfall in the past 37 days alone! If averaged out, that would be 0.21″ per day. Here are the wettest June’s in Portland Airport history (1941-2010) with data updated through 9pm Sunday, June 6th. We are currently in 4th place with 24 days left in the month. This comes on the heels of the 3rd wettest May in Portland Airport history (1941-2010).

    1984 4.06″
    1954 3.58″
    1981 3.23″
    2010 (as of 9pm) 3.08″
    1958 3.04″

    As previously mentioned, with the continuation of below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall, another fairly historic record is going to fall this week in Portland. This Wednesday (June 9th) marks the latest day in Portland Airport history (1940-2010) to reach 80 degrees for the first time in a given calendar year. That record will indeed fall, as no 80’s are forecast through at least mid-week.

    Steve Pierce
    Vice President – Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    360-695-7172 (Vancouver)
    503-504-2075 (Portland)
    e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

  36. Boydo3 500' North Albany says:

    Just a little light rain here today. Warmed up to the upper 60s. Still mostly cloudy.
    Looks like we could see a pretty nice warm up starting this weekend. Please be true 🙂

  37. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Absolutely pouring here. Sheeting of rain and our street is now flooded. I did hear 1 lightning strike on AM radio, but did not hear thunder. To be honest it is raining so hard I’m not sure I would even hear thunder unless it were very close.

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