A Warm Day

Tyler Mode caught this dramatic view of clouds east of La Center this evening.

The forecast was perfect until about 3pm…then it went down the drain quickly.  A shortwave passing overhead allowed clouds and showers to build, mainly over the mountains.  But a few popped up here and there over the Valleys.  Around 5-6pm strong thunderstorms developed over the North Coast Range…looks like Mist and Vernonia really got hammered.  As of 10pm it’s real quiet with just a few sprinkles over the central Oregon Cascades.  A unique feature this afternoon was a low-level gust front that moved through the Metro area from the intial batch of showers over the Mt. Hood National Forest.  You could see it on the radar and in observations on the east side of town.  It came in from the southeast, very obvious from the Corbett observation between 3-4pm.  The all-day long east wind (in comes in from the East to Northeast) suddenly went SE or briefly even south and the temp dropped.  Similar thing happened in Troutdale and the Eagle Creek RAWS obs.  I was riding my bike along Skyline from Cornelius Pass to Cornell during this time.  The breeze and cooldown were noticeable even up there.

I have to admit our RPM model nailed the showers and I pretty much ignored it yesterday evening.  So what does it show for tomorrow?  The upper trough shifts east a bit and seems to take MOST of the instability with it.  However it shows some convection over the North/Central Coast Range and Cascades drifting off to the east.  Not as impressive as today but I sure wouldn’t do a project outside that REQUIRES dry weather.  Most likely most of us stay dry, but watch out in the mid-late afternoon.

Sunday the convection should slip farther south and east, in advance of a cold front that moves in Sunday night.

It appears that weak upper-ridging takes hold the rest of next week.  Not real high upper-level heights, but dry weather and mostly sunny skies.  ECMWF 850mb temps were the highest…as high as +13, giving us highs over 80 degrees, but GFS is a bit more subdued.  A +8 to +10 is more in the 75+ range.  We (Drew and I) took the middle road and went with mid-upper 70s later next week.  My garden could sure use it and I’d be perfectly happy with a string of 70 degree days. I’ll take anything between 65 and 85 in the month of May without complaining.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

232 Responses to A Warm Day

  1. muxpux says:

    the tornado that went through henryetta

  2. muxpux says:

    that storm along I-40 is huge!

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    So Rob, a friend of yours was there?

  4. Andrew Johnson says:

    I’m gonna go see what I can find, think I’m gonna head toward Caney, KS

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Oklahoma City’s TDWR radar displayed a hook echo with their thunderstorm that rumbled through. I knew they got hit by tornadoes, it was almost May 3rd 1999 all over again, only those tornadoes that hit the city weren’t all wedges. (Luckily)

  6. muxpux says:

    [Comment From Brad Brad: ]
    woa this tornado is huge, ill upload a pic here in a minute right now im heading east on I-40 its behind me Monday May 10, 2010 6:33 Brad

    cant wait to see this pic…

  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I’ve been really busy in the weather chat rooms. A friend of mine in Moore, Oklahoma e-mailed me that he was getting baseball sized hail, and the inflow winds were blowing out all of this windows.. I haven’t heard from him since. THEN I hear on TWC that Moore was hit with a tornado…. I’m quite concerned.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Oklahoma City metro has been hit by multiple tornadoes. Damage is bad, real bad.

  9. muxpux says:

    my friend in Tulsa texted me a bit ago, shes kinda nervous. i told her to get some pics if she sees anything cool, haha

  10. yevpolo1990 says:

    Hm suface cape in around salem/eugene area is at 500

  11. Andrew Johnson says:

    These storms will be to me in an hour or two.

  12. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/239_mike-phelps.php
    There has been a wall cloud, tornado, and now he’s got a wedge developing. Unfortunately he said a bit ago “I think a few chasers behind us may have been the bullet”

    These storms are MONSTERS

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    A buddy of mine Colt Jameson from Grapevine, Texas is with SevereStudios and with talking to him we decided his target to be Lincoln County, Oklahoma. He’s relying on me for information and that might get tense/nerve racking later…. I think it might be too dangerous to chase especially if you try to stay ahead of the cells due to the projected rapid motion.

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Looks to be a major severe/tornado outbreak across the southern plains today. I’ve been monitoring things.

    It is really getting going now….. First Tornado Watch was issued for Western Kansas and the first cell that went up was Tornado Warned immediately….

    Now a PDS Tornado Watch has been issued. We’ve seen a few of these before, but I can’t recall the last time I saw every threat risk ‘High’

    …THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…

    DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

    This could be historic later this afternoon/evening.

  15. Mr Data says:

    It’s so fun to read the archives sometimes:

  16. Mr Data says:

    Andrew Says:

    December 29, 2005 at 12:20 am
    The last 3 months have been somewhat simular to december. We get some type of dryspell followed by a week of heavy rain, interesting weather patern.

    Derek Says:

    December 29, 2005 at 7:23 pm
    Sorry about that Mark, it happens to all of us once in a while. I would be concerned if I lived near a river with the amount of rain coming down. Its really heavy around my house, and its adding up quick. Is there any risk of higher winds with this storm? I think I see a low off shore and the pressure is dropping quickly…So probably at least noticably windy don’t you think?

    Mark’s post: Questions Answered II
    December 29, 2005
    We’ll talk current weather, then get to those “accidentally-erased questions”.

    00z models keep the solid rain in here much of tomorrow. I think we’ll see lots of localized small street flooding, but not enough for more than maybe 5-7 rivers approach or go over flood stage. Plus, we get a break Saturday and lower snow level to help things out. Wind shouldn’t get too wild UNLESS an unforecast low pressure center suddenly develops along tomorrow’s front sitting over us. If one were to develop and move along the front into Western Washington…that would be a problem for the western valleys.

    Looks like the moisture gets shunted a bit farther north next week, so we stay mild, but no real heavy rain.

    Okay, let’s try again with those questions you’ve asked:

    And the last post by Randall: Randall Says:

    January 2, 2006 at 12:26 pm
    Mark:
    I am an Arctic freak too. We should start a club.
    I have a question: With the coldest airmasses that arive into our area from the Polar regions, is there usually an extremely cold airmass over Alaska that is a prelude to our coldest of arctic outbreaks or is that my imgination?
    In the past, I have rarely seen us get a VERY cold Arctic outbreak if the temps in Alaska are not extremely cold. It seems as if we can get some moderate outbreaks when the coldest air is in upper Central Canada. During this last bout with cold temps, the ridge was pumping southerlies into Alsaka which downslope would tend to push the coldest of air into the Central US, correct? I remember the February 1989 Arctic Outbreak (or was that 1988?). There were temps in Alaska of -60 to -75. I think I even saw one station in Alaska that reported -80. Another one we had in the early 1990′s had the same fridged temps in Alaska. With the storm of January 2004, the temps in Alaska were not abnormally cold either (maybe -20′s, a few – 30′s).
    Also, what jet stream pattern gives us the coldest air? I have noticed that when the ridge is positively tilted and it noses into Western Canada, it does not get truly cold around here(When I say truly cold I mean a high in the low to mid teens and lows in the single digits). It seems the coldest air around here is when the high pressure system noses into Western Alaska and the actual trough is carved out and we are JUST on the extreme Western end of it with hardly any over the water trajctory, and the depth of the trough well to our south into southern Oregon, Northern California.
    I would be eager to hear your response Mark.
    Thank You and Happy New Year to you and your family!
    Randall

  17. Mr Data says:

    I am curious as to what went wrong with the thunderstorm last night?

    What dynamics made it fall apart?

    Have we EVER had marine-layer thunderstorms before as it seems to me all our thunderstorms at least here in the valley come from the S/SE flow aloft with moisture from GOM:

    Also:

    It Kinda bugs me that when I first looked on here waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in the winter of 2005-2006 https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2005/12/ there always was questions of what went wrong with this system and people would go back and discuss systems of the past to predict the future whenever something even moderate was happening?

    Now we just kinda move on to the next thing as if a bust was no big deal?

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    As of 9:00 AM

    Upper Air Analysis
    850mb: 0c (12z WRF-GFS Forecast to warm to +2c to +3c)
    500mb: -27c (12z WRF-GFS Forecast to remain -26c to -28c)

    Thermodynamic Fields
    *Nothing to note, yet.

    Initial thoughts are it appears the mid-upper levels will remain cool enough and lapse rates just steep enough to support hail and a few t-storms should there be adequate sun breaks to destabilize the atmosphere. Will continue to monitor trends.

    • Runrain says:

      Looks like some pretty good sunbreaks developing. The NWS seemed to think there wouldn’t be any.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Me too considering how much low level moisture there was humidity was WAY up there.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Clouds look quite solid on satellite.

    • Jim in N. Tabor says:

      So Rob, what are the odds for activity IF we get any decent sunbreaks ? Slim to none ?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      15-20% Chance Hail
      5-10% Chance T-Storms

      It’s May, there is cold air aloft, so we cannot completely rule things out. Yep, c’mon sun breaks!

  19. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z SLE sounding

    Some instability develops
    Surface and upper levels unCAPPED to around 330mb
    LI not favorable
    Lapse rates around 7C/km are marginal
    PWAT values .62″ is meager moisture
    Convective Temp: 50
    Max Temp: 55

    One thing I feel will be a limiting factor are the lack of sun breaks. Relative Humidity values are very high right now 95%+ throughout western Oregon. IF that were to change by noon-2 PM we could see some hail showers or maybe a few lightning strikes? I doubt it. IR Loop indicates cold pool moving inland well to our south. I will still monitor Thermodynamic Fields today.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I got sunbreaks right now.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Well let’s see how long they last.

      9:00 AM Upper Air Analysis and Thermodynamic Field info coming shortly.

  20. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    SPC forecasting a “high” risk of severe weather late tomorrow for “tornado alley”. Should make for a good day for following storm chasers….

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      According to the Tulsa NWS my locatioin has a 40% chance of being included in a Tornado Warning during the next 24 hours.

      http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/dsp/dsp.php

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      It could be a big day, or a bad, damaging day depending on how you look at it. BUT 12z soundings from the Red River northward to OKC and northeast to SE Kansas don’t look so hot showing a pretty stout CAP. Surface obs show widespread cloud cover, drizzle/mist with temps in the 50’s. Not so good…. There are a lot of dynamics that might all phase together though busting the CAP by 4-6 PM.

      I did watch TWC this morning and I got a sense of Mike Bettes and Dr. Forbes that limiting factors could be the cloud cover. I guess we’ll see….

  21. W7ENK says:

    I’m so glad we had another beautiful day today! Two in a row?!? I never would have believed it… 😆

    75.0°F this afternoon
    38.8°F this morning
    SW 15.4 mph at 6:24pm
    0.04″ of rain, started about 8pm.

    It was so nice… After such a beautiful, warm and sunny day, the cool rain this evening smelled so fresh and sweet. I was enjoying a glass of mead in the back yard when it started to sprinkle. The niceness of the sound and the smell of it overpowered the annoyance of being rained on, so I just sat there and finished my glass, enjoying every moment. 🙂

    Well, I’m gonna call it a day. Nye-nye u_u

  22. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Any reports of lightning with this very bright red rain (radar) that is about to hit me in minutes?

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