Afternoon Thunderstorms

Nice thunderstorm moved through the SE part of Portland between 4:45 and 5:15pm.  Big downpour, hail, and 7 cloud to ground lightning strikes.  You can click on the picture to get a closer view.

What a headache in the long range!  More on that later…

10pm Update:  And now it’s time for the update.  Good times today with all the active convection.  That storm spit out all the lightning strikes and then promptly shut down.  The showers were just flying today…15-20 mph.  That means we quickly moved from rain to hail to sunshine.  Someone at the coffee shop told me she just loves this type of Spring weather instead of the long, gray, gloomy days…I agree. 

Tomorrow looks a bit quieter with shallower convection and a more stable atmosphere.  It seems to shut down quickly after 5pm too according to mesoscale models.  Friday should be dry with showers confined to the hills (upslope areas).

The forecast issues are Saturday and beyond.  Looks like warm advection and a weak system moving right over the top of a building ridge will be strong enough to spoil our Saturday morning…probably drippy, especially in the upslope areas.  The Corbett community is turning out for a day of service to work on the schools and school grounds (mainly outdoor work).  I’ll be participating in that and unfortunately I think it’ll be wet!  The weather should improve Saturday afternoon and all models point to much better weather on Sunday.

The big disagreement is still beyond Sunday.  The ECMWF was still going “basketballs to the wall” with a cold trough moving right down into the Pacific Northwest in the 12z run.   The 00z run comes out in an hour or so.  The 00z GFS has come slightly towards the ECMWF, showing another system brushing us Monday morning on it’s way southeast.  Not any cold air with it in that case.  We’ve decided to go with the most consistent ECMWF, thus the cool and wet forecast starting Monday.  The annoying thing is that the GFS has been almost as consistent showing general ridging over us Sunday through Wednesday.  But with the 00z chinks in the armor of the GFS (Monday showers), I feel better now about staying with the ECMWF.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

126 Responses to Afternoon Thunderstorms

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Watch Storms LIVE
    http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=mike.mathia&uid=285
    Fantastic display

  2. Battle Ground Brian says:

    00z GFS Amazing 2 nights in a row, it giveth hope at 18z and rips it all away on the next run.

    Now hour 348 shows 52 and rain after showing 89 degrees on the last 18z run. Guess la la land isnt worth even looking at is it.
    Lets take the average of those 2 runs. I would settle for that at this point.

  3. Mr Data says:

    I have a 2 questions for you Andrew so please read: 🙂

    What is the name of your town in (insert southern accent) Oklahoma.

    I also want to know what is the business like in your town compared to the “Dead” Silverton?

    The reason why I say “Dead” Silverton is there used to be more “practical” business in this town in which now there are like 5 barber shops and lots of antique shops mania.

    The most real expensive store now is Stone Budda which is pretty neat but we never have time to go in there and the painting store is still there……………………………………………………………I think.

    Someday I plan to haul my butt in that Stone Buddha store to look around.

    We had stores such as
    “Oak Street Pharmacy” that lasted a good decaded according to Microfilm then which turned into a furniture shop while we first moved here in the late 90s then something else which went out of biz and is MT. (empty)

    Video store:

    There also used to be a fun video store in our downtown which was a neat place to go to and the guy was pretty “cool” and had 10 cent popcorn and 25 cent for “Texas Size”.

    (bakery)

    We also used to have a real bakery with freshly made stuff due to having their own ovens and now it’s mostly pasteries and no cookies/donuts.etc

    As for the ovens they are loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong gone. 😦

    (Jc Pennys) According to Microfilm and from other locals we had a real JC Penny clothing store on Oak Street which turned into Pizza Factory which turned into Bird House Resturant. (dumb name) and now it’s a Thai resturant.

    There also used to be a Western Auto store and many more I don’t even know.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      I live in Bartlesville, Oklahoma which is about 40 miles north of Tulsa in the NE part of the state. Business is ok here. I believe the unemployment rate in my county is 5.6% which is much lower than Marion Co. which I believe is around 10%. Business is doing alright here, one of the major office and research complexes for Conoco-Phillips (Oil company) is here and we have a mall with American Eagle, GAP, Sears, Buffalo Wild Wings, etc… You should go to the Stone Buddha though. I went there last year and they have some pretty cool stuff.

  4. Andrew Johnson says:

    lol…Nebraska City, NE. Stayed there a few times on baseball trips in college. Nice little town. Honestly though Rob, you’ve probably seen more lightning this year in SE Portland than I have!

    • Mr Data says:

      As for the video: I watched it for several minutes and the camera even panned around but unfortunatly their pixels are on the loose.

      The camera is like pixelmania over there and it’s hard to make out any landmarks/features.

      Luckily it’s nighttime and it’s not so bad compared to if it’s a daytime storm where everything will be glarey shmarey.

  5. Battle Ground Brian says:

    18z GFS Troutdale —-Hot Spell?

    Its Back..this latest run is similar to last nights run in la la land.

    Hour 348 — 89 degrees in Troutdale for May 13th

    We deserve this people!

  6. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Some decent lightning on the Omaha, Nebraska cams.
    http://147.134.34.236/view/index.shtml
    http://147.134.61.200/view/index.shtml

    These work fine for me.

  7. Mr Data says:

    To whomever said they can’t upload their YouTube videos due to slowness is absolutely correct as YouTube has crawled to a snail.

    I have a very decent connection and YouTube is very VERY slow today while over video sites with the same video lengths run pretty fast like LiveLeak.com Which is sort of a YouTube for news……….unedited undoctored.

    Back to Weather:

    It’s been very steady gusts today out of the south between 25-30mph based upon the Beaufort Wind Scale. You’d think this is a signal for something to come in.

    Some spopts in Salem had winds out of the north which is weird for two different directions.

    Now my wind gauge is pointing west.

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    How come I cannot find the Hastings, KS radar on my GR2/GR3??? “KUEX” is not on my list.

  9. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Effective wind shear values for Northern Kansas are reading at 85 kts!!! The maximum amount of shear we have here in a severe weather event is like 35-40 kts.

  10. Hey all…if any of you have elderly of easily confused parents, consider this….
    One of my best friends parents just got scammed by the “call from a grandchild in jail” scam for 5000 bucks…..
    the police say its happening a lot lately…..
    Talk with your folks, folks!

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