The Rain is Here!

April 26, 2010

Glad I got everything done outside…now I can come back to work and relax.  Got my cool-weather veggies planted, and spread out about 1/2 of the Zoo-Doo pile. 

The pile of tropical animal poop Saturday morning before I started working on it.

The rest is to split with a friend.  I guess I could adapt Stephanie’s “you can take a girl out of Gresham…” saying to “you can take a boy off the farm but you can’t take the farm out of the boy”.  Up until about 8th grade I was sure I wanted to be a farmer, then the weather bug bit me and I moved on.   But all those chores are taken care of…good news since the rain is really coming down now.  Radar screen is solid with rain all over Western Oregon and Washington.  A surprise this afternoon was some mixing down of stronger wind ahead of the approaching cold front.  Seems to have only occurred on the east side of the Valley and Cascade foothills from about Estacada down to Springfield/Eugene.  I see Stayton RAWS had a gust to 44 mph…impressive for the end of April.  The wind has died down now.

10pm Update:  I see McMinnville is already well past 1/2 inch of rain already…front has been very slow to move east as a wave moves north offshore.  Much lighter amounts so far on the east side of the Valley.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see widespread .50-.75″ totals out of the front itself.  Then it’s on to three days of chilly showers and sunbreaks weather tomorrow through Thursday.  I’m not too impressed with the chance for thunderstorms in this pattern, although it’s hard to believe with such a chilly airmass we won’t see at least hail showers the next few afternoons.  I DO notice quite an orographic effect…check out the WRF-GFS for the next few days.  It shows very little rainfall on the west side of the Metro area (once we get into the scattered showers tomorrow), and almost constantly wet conditions on the foothills of the Cascades and in the mountains themselves.

Still a huge difference in the GFS and ECMWF for Saturday and beyond, although things seem to be coming a bit closer together this evening.  The GFS built a big ridge in the east Pacific and then flopped it over us starting on Sunday.  The ECMWF through 12z this morning showed a vigorous and cold trough dropping in, smashing right through the ridge Sunday and beyond…totally different solutions.  I see the GFS is definitely showing some retrograde action the last few runs, so apparently today was a good day to back off that crazy forecast of 70+ starting Sunday. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen