Finally! Warmer Weather Ahead

After almost two weeks of cool weather, a change is definitely in the cards beginning tomorrow.  I don’t see any cold upper-level troughs near the Pacific Northwest over the next week.  One approaches California later tomorrow through Monday, then another approaches the West Coast later next week.  Models seem to be trending towards keeping the lows week and upper-level heights reasonably high for this time of year.  As a result I pushed the temperatures in the 7 Day forecast up quite a bit today.

Very impressive easterly flow tomorrow.  Check out the 40kts overhead by midday tomorrow.  That should surface across all of the Metro area;  I have a feeling some will complain about “what happened to the warm Saturday?”.

A few waves of showers move north Saturday night, and again Sunday evening/night.  That leaves (supposedly) pretty decent days.  Our RPM shows convection popping up over Coast and Cascade Ranges Monday PM as the upper level low gets closer.

Out of time tonight…enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

179 Responses to Finally! Warmer Weather Ahead

  1. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    As of 2:30 PM

    Upper Air Analysis
    850mb: +2c
    500mb: -26c

    Thermodynamic Fields
    SB CAPE: 250J/kg (PDX southward) no CAP
    MU CAPE: 100J/kg – 500J/kg central/southern Willamette Valley
    LIFTED INDEX: 0 to -1
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.5C/km
    LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 8-8.5C/km

  2. Mr Data says:

    Good afternoooooooooooon. Partly cloudy skies with clouds developing overhead.

    Sixxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxty two! 62F outside and 41% humidity.

    I bet someone in the valley will see a flash of lightning.

  3. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    As of 1:30 PM

    Upper Air Analysis
    850mb: 1c
    500mb: -26c

    Thermodynamic Fields
    SB CAPE: 250J/kg (PDX southward) no CAP
    MU CAPE: 100J/kg
    LIFTED INDEX: +1 to ZERO
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.5C/km
    LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.5C/km

    Well instability is the same. Buoyancy improved a bit. Lapse rates a bit steeper. All of this I believe will promote stronger showers and maybe a t-storm by 3:00 PM.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      All/any activity I bet will be located east of Sandy/Estacada Cascade Foothills.

  4. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    59.6 … Lots of CU around, but very shallow and no real good organization yet.

    Let’s check on a few things…

    As of 12:30 PM

    Upper Air Analysis
    850mb: 0c
    500mb: -26c

    Thermodynamic Fields
    SB CAPE: 250J/kg (PDX southward) no CAP
    MU CAPE: 100J/kg
    LIFTED INDEX: +2 to +1
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7C/km
    LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7C/km

  5. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Looks like some tiny toddler sized echoes trying to develop over Linn and Lane Counties.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      In the end, they will still just be “toddlers” right?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      A few cells are trying to graduate to Kindergarten now.

    • W7ENK says:

      I dunno… there’s an awful lot of sun out there today, and it is getting nice and warm. Earlier, coming across the Tacoma/99E overpass, I noticed what looked like some detached (dead?) anvils to the South. I have no idea what that means, but they got my mind going a little. 🙂

      I’m curious, where’s that 6th grade/middle school cut-off? Would a full blown thunderstorm be graduated from high school??? 😆

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Severe thunderstorm = Ivy League graduate
      Strong thunderstorm = University
      Normal thunderstorm = Community College
      Weak thunderstorm = High school
      Shower with hail = Middle School
      Moderate shower = Kindergarten
      Weak shower = Toddler

      😆

    • W7ENK says:

      Ah, got it!

      So, I assume increasing degrees of showers K thru 5, and they don’t start developing their hailstones until about the 6th grade then???

      Umm… wow, that sounded creepy.

      Hahaha!
      😆

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Still some good memories to chew on in the mean time…



  7. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Everyone, stay calm. Try not to panic..

    MUCAPE 100J/kg has now developed.

    Yeah, I know rather terrifying.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Oh no… There goes my big monster HP supercell…

      It was fun wish-casting while it lasted.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      We’d have to see SB CAPE values of about 4000+ j/kg to see that anyways.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    Here in Salem it is a beautiful sunny morning with nary a cloud in sight. What clouds there are seem to be on our Northern horizon. It is around 55 degrees this morning just after 11 AM. I estimate our high here today will be 63 degrees. The models for the most part seem to show warmer weather ahead. Here’s to mostly 65-75 degrees the rest of the month.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Not sure what models you’re looking at, but most show a nice mix of warm days and cool days. Pretty typical April weather after a very cold start to the month.

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Its still lifting, I just got my first glimpse of the sun.

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    53.6 mostly sunny. Already exceeding convective temp. Which probably won’t mean much 😆

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    50.0 the line of clearing seems to have stalled right over my house… I have sun breaks off/on. It is just having a hard time advancing northward probably due to the increasingly easterly trajectory of the flow aloft.

  12. After some showers overnight we have a mostly sunny morning. Currently 47°.

  13. Jesse-Orchards says:

    A muggy, warm 46 here. Had some rain earlier but looks like clearing is moving in now.

    Tornadoes later?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh man don’t even get me started! I’ll be okay with just a few lightning strikes and pea sized hail, but naders’? oh… oh boy.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      naders and grapefruits falling from the sky… you wish. 🙂

      I don’t think this is the right area for you Jesse 😉

    • Tornadoes for me?…Certainly…I still have vivid memories of the April 5th one here in Clark County…I could use a “refresher”….

      54F….0.26” rain

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z WRF-GFS CAPE model is trying to develop MUCAPE 200-400J/kg around 5:00 PM today.

    I’m not holding my breath I think chances are extremely slight, but Thermodynamic Fields are worth monitoring today.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Latest 9z SREF scan only develops MUCAPE elevated instability on the order of 300-500J/kg. Lifted Index of +1 to Zero. It is no longer supporting the idea of any surface based or mixed layer instability.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya never know when a stray albino Donkey will wander onto the scene.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      It worked once! If it does again I’ll have to wonder just how rare those uncolored critters are.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I would for sure like to see one of those unusual characters pass by today.

  15. Heading to Kahneeta in a little while. Gonna feel great to be in that pool!:) Hope the roads are all ok! they look to be fine via TC

  16. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Line of clearing is slowly moving north, but looking over southern Oregon/northern California hmmmm I’m not sure that another piece of energy rotates N-NW today…. I guess we’ll see.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      My only concern is the lack of a forcing mechanism shortwave/vort… The sun will have to do work today.

      One encouraging fact is I’m sitting at 48.2 and convective temp is only 53F…. We should be able to get to 55 at least I assume.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Yes that is interesting… I was outside at 7 am and felt muggy and warm. Definitely feels like thunderstorms later this afternoon. If we can accomplish clearing to allow more atmospheric energy, I’m sure something will brew.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z KSLE sounding

    Weak-Marginal CAPE
    Little to no CAP inversion
    PWAT: .75″ – Decent moisture
    LI: +1 to Zero – Buoyancy/Lift marginal at best
    Lapse Rates 6.3 – 7.2C/km – Marginal, not very steep
    MAX T: 57
    Convective T: 53

    We really need some good sun breaks/clearing periods.

  18. I remember what Mark said in a blog post probably a year or more ago when he said something like “A sunny 75 degree day can’t be far away right? We’ll see.”

    I remember it was in 2007 or 2008 when we had a 75-80 degree Saturday in early/mid April and I was outside and I got so sunburned it wasn’t funny!

    Maybe when I say that sunset was around 8pm that it will give the time of year away more accurately.

    Let’s hope that happens soon!

  19. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    IR loop
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12
    Back edge of clouds with lead shortwave just south of Salem with what appears to be a fairly sharp line of clearing/sun breaks behind it. Next shortwave over southern Oregon as the upper low is now moving onshore into northern California.

  20. Mr Data says:

    I’ve noticed a pattern: The ones Rob posted seem to be the same times both AM and PM while the one Randall posted the last one is at 10pm instead of 11pm.

    The pattern seems off in that last one……………………….:-?

    48.2F

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      The models viewable to the public(GFS) are as my times posted indicate.

      Sure has been moderate-heavy rain the past 45 minutes now as the last night’s shortwave moves north. A good deformation band developed… We’ll need miracle sun breaks if we are going to see any convection today. Don’t count on it. I am not.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I should say we’ll need good surface heating.

  21. Mr Data says:

    Will anyone please remind me when the daily model runs are?

    I think 1st is 12:00am and the second is 8:00am but I can’t remember. 😕

  22. Mr Data says:

    There’s nothing like the good ol human brain and rational judgement as your allies. 🙂

    History history history.

  23. W7ENK says:

    I mean no disrespect, and maybe I’m just talking out a hole in my … ummm … fingers? But, it seems to me that a number of you guys put too much faith in these ‘models’, which from what I’ve noticed has chronically been the single biggest downfall of most TV meteorologists. While they’re good at forecasting general trends, they usually seem to fall short when it comes to the finer details.

    I feel that there’s nothing better than sticking your head out the window and looking at the sky from time to time… not that this could tell you what’s 3 days out, but still. I never understood why the “Weather man” was always hidden in the basement. I’ve often wondered if they might benefit from a window, even a small one, to the outdoors? I guess that’s why ‘Sky Cams’ were invented?

    Point being, I wouldn’t put much faith in these models, especially when they start flip-flopping like this. Go with your gut, it usually works out better… at least for me! 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      In this part of the country, sticking your head out the window won’t work very good. Weather changes rapidly, and computer models are good that way, otherwise all of our daily weather forecasts would drastically change by the hour.

      Its a good point you have, but its good to rely on computers to give us a general outlook on the weather. And we never will get tiny details correct, thats weather for ya.

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      That’s actually what the models really do; they give us an idea on trends coming up. It’s up to the meteorologist to make predictions and polish off the finer details using their own knowledge of the climate they’re predicting in at any given time given the information that the models have provided. In other words; if you rely exclusively on the models, you’re gonna be in trouble.

      That said, simply licking a finger and sticking it up in the air doesn’t help too much… Especially an a climate and region like the one we’re in. There’s not much medium-range data that you can pick up by just sticking your head out the window (especially when you’re in the car… Because then you get gusts of 50mph on the highway.)

      If you’re talking about the “flip-flopping” on the potential warmth coming later in this week… Ya gotta understand that it’s not THAT unusual for the models to pedal back on predictions ESPECIALLY when they’re 120+ hours out. At that range you basically just need to read the general trend of things and relay that information using your best judgment. When it’s 5 days out, most people aren’t going to throw a hissy fit if you’re wrong.

      What’s really annoying is if the models begin flip-flopping within the 72 hour period. That’s when it gets annoying and you really gotta rely on intuition and knowledge of the climate, region and nature of the event you’re watching out for. But usually within that time frame, the models have a good idea on what’s coming.

      It is a balancing act and you do have a good point; but the models are really important in helping us understand the broader picture.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Do you keep a spreadsheet for your weather stats? Just asking cuz I’m a stats freak.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I feel just the opposite W7ENK. I’m still surprised at the accuracy of the models. I do however agree at times its ridiculous when the forecast is for rain and the weather forecaster doesn’t change his forecast until the snow is piling up ( always ask myself, doesn’t this guy have a window )?

    • W7ENK says:

      I didn’t mean to stir anything up by my comments last night, I guess I slipped into one of my moods wherein I just completely lost my filter… 😳 I had a rough weekend, so I apologize.

      I didn’t mean to sound as though I was stepping into the room, proclaiming “You guys are all idiots!” – reading back, that’s how I think it sounded, and that certainly was not my intent. I just find it frustrating, these crazy models that I admittedly do not understand, spitting out contradictory forecasts almost every run, and then people on here trying their best to make sense of them, theorizing, expressing hope of warm weather, or snow or thunderstorms, etc… that all seems to fall apart in the end anyway.

      I have to agree with the individual yesterday

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I wouldn’t even worry about it. It’s all good.

    • W7ENK says:

      I didn’t mean to stir anything up by my comments last night, I guess I slipped into one of my moods wherein I just completely lost my filter… 😳 I had a rough weekend, so I apologize.

      I didn’t mean to sound as though I was stepping into the room, proclaiming “You guys are all idiots!” – reading back, that’s how I think it sounded, and that certainly was not my intent. I just find it frustrating, these crazy models that I admittedly do not entirely understand, spitting out contradictory forecasts almost every run, and then people on here trying their best to make sense of them, theorizing, expressing hope of warm weather, or snow or thunderstorms, etc… that all seems to fall apart in the end anyway.

      I have to agree with the individual yesterday, BeavertonChris, and his sentiment that this cool, cloudy, wet and dreary weather is really affecting me, and I don’t just want, I need some nice warm sunny weather for a while. Honestly, isn’t about time??? I’ve lived in this area my entire life, (minus the three years I was in K Falls for school) and I wouldn’t want to live anywhere else, but the winters here in the PNW are so freakin’ hard sometimes…

      Again, I’m sorry if I came off on the wrong foot with my comments, I was just venting.

      Now, where to buy a solar lamp? Certainly they’re cheaper than airfare to the tropics, I would hope…

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow, that’s odd, half my post posted early??? Hmm…

  24. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I bet 12z WRF GFS will just slap the instability model back in shape tomorrow afternoon. As it exactly did so today.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Okay I’ll take you up on that bet and say it will not.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Latest 3z SREF scan now takes all but some very weak MUCAPES away pushing core of instability axis east of us. I’m not surprised.

  25. Battle Ground Brian says:

    I am falling in love. (With the new 00Z GFS)

    Preaching an 82 degrees next Sunday at PDX.

  26. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Models are FINALLY starting to agree on some sort of warm weather in about a week with highs at least into the low to mid 70s. I’m sure I’ll bite my tongue tomorrow.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

  27. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Radar is beginning to fill in a bit to the S-SSE…. Also decent enhancement over Marion and Clackamas Counties with yellows and oranges showing up.

  28. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    As we speak right now MUCAPES are 500J/kg right over PDX metro. Looking at IR loop appears a few bands will push northward overnight…. Not sure we warm much tomorrow. I’d throw any chance of t-storms out the window due to this.

  29. Mr Data says:

    I meant your 60F. i reAD that wrong.

  30. Mr Data says:

    Same here but more of a drizzle. 56F outside so I don’t know where you are getting your 66F 😕

  31. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    60.6F here and sprinkling very lightly as well.

  32. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    These showers that passed Sacramento look very organized in nature. Looks like convection, but no lightning detectors show anything…

  33. Mr Data says:

    And hardly anyone was posting on the blog during that time frame. 😕

    It was mostly misc discussion going on. 😕

  34. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    “Strongest April Wind Gust at Portland International Airport In Almost 30 Years”

    The first ten days of April 2010 have been quite windy in Portland. On April 2nd, the Portland International Airport recorded it’s fastest April wind gust since April 2nd 1982! Further, Portland has posted a hefty 32 mph daily wind gust average from April 1st-10th, with two of those days seeing southerly gusts higher than 45mph. That is quite an active spring pattern for Portland.

    Here are the highest April wind gusts ever recorded at the Portland International Airport —
    Range of record: 1951-Present:

    63 mph (S) 5 April 1972 (Vancouver F3 Tornado)
    60 mph (S) 14 April 1957
    55 mph (S) 2 April 1982
    48 mph (W) 25 April 1977
    47 mph (S) 2 April 2010
    47 mph (SW) 13 April 1960
    46 mph (S) 5 April 2010
    46 mph (E) 15 April 1999

    * Max April wind gust data courtesy of Clinton Rockey of the Portland office of the National Weather Service

    Now, here are the peak wind gusts for the first 10 days of April 2010, as recorded at the Portland International Airport —

    1st – 24 mph
    2nd – 47 mph
    3rd – 32 mph
    4th – 39 mph
    5th – 46 mph
    6th – 24 mph
    7th – 25 mph
    8th – 31 mph
    9th – 13 mph
    10th – 38 mph
    Average daily wind gust April 1st-10th 2010 = 31.9 mph

    * April 2010 daily wind gust data complied by Steve Pierce.

    Steve Pierce
    Executive Councilor – Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    360-695-7172 (Vancouver)
    503-504-2075 (Portland)
    e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

  35. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:

    “THE BIG AMS ANNOUNCEMENT?”

    As mentioned at the AMS meeting last Thursday —

    “I am very happy to announce that after several months, I have procured the nominations of some great folks to take part in next falls AMS Executive Council in the position of “Councilor.” On top of those already nominated and seconded, we can now add the following weather folks to an exciting Executive Council list of nominees:”

    Nick Allard – KGW Ch.8 Morning Meteorologist
    Dave Lamb – Active Oregon AMS Member
    Rian Muleback – Active Oregon AMS Member
    Dave Salesky – KATU Ch.2 Chief Meteorologist
    Bruce Sussman – KOIN Ch.6 Chief Meteorologist
    Jonathan Wolfe – Meteorologist – National Weather Service, Portland
    Matt Zaffino – KGW Ch.8 Chief Meteorologist

    Also, I wanted to send out a quick personal update about the “GREAT” AMS meeting we had last Thursday night at the Clackamas Old Spaghetti Factory. With over 30+ people in attendance, it was one of our bigger dinner meetings in recent memory. George Miller’s presentation was great! Thanks again George! We should have George’s presentation posted soon on the Oregon AMS web site! The Oregon AMS secretary will likely send out more “formal” details in the coming weeks.

    Steve Pierce
    Executive Councilor – Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    360-695-7172 (Vancouver)
    503-504-2075 (Portland)
    e-mail: stevejpierce@comcast.net

  36. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z WRF-GFS continues to suggest CAPE values 400-600J/kg develop tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

    Checking the latest 15z SREF scan

    Still shows a small window of opportunity Monday evening/night
    SBCAPE: 500J/kg
    MLCAPE: 500J/kg
    MUCAPE: 500J/kg
    LIFTED INDEX: 0 to -1

  37. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Seeing a few showers to our south now. Instability is extremely weak with only MUCAPE 100J/kg showing. Diffluent flow aloft seems to be apparent which could aid in shower development. I doubt t-storms, but I think slightly stronger showers than last evening are possible.

    Until then…..
    ___________________________________________
    ***WATCH STORMS LIVE!!!***

    Storms blowing up over West Texas north of Lubbock.

    Chaser David Drummond is on it.
    http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/308_david-drummond.php

    Zoomed radar of this storm

  38. Mike (Orchards 255') says:

    Very pleasant 64.5°

  39. Mr Data says:

    60.5F and filtered sunshine thru mostly cloudy skies.

    (turns off the lights to conserve energy since no one is using the blog)

  40. Battle Ground Brian says:

    66 degrees here at 1:15pm. Looks like Clark county is going to over-achieve today. It’s about time….

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