El Nino Effects Slip Into March

A nice dump of snow up on the mountain today, but it only briefly dropped a few inches down around 4,000′.  The heavier stuff was all up around 5,000′ and above.  A few days ago I had hope that maybe we might shake off the dead El Nino weather symptoms, but looking at the latest models we appear to have more of the same on the way.  One can’t say it’s been an extremely dry winter by any means, but we sure have seen a long period of wimpy and splitting weather systems moving in off the Pacific.  The 00z GFS continues the trend through at least the first week of March.  We get a wet warm front tomorrow evening (more rain in the passes), then a cold front early Friday.  The southern end of that trough splits off and heads to our south Saturday, leaving us with leftover light showers.  We wait for another system later Monday or Tuesday, but that one splits quite a bit too, as seen in the 500mb maps.

A bit more disturbing is the reappearance of some sort of upper level ridging up in Western Canada in the 10-15 day period.  Yeah, I know that’s way out there, but even the ECMWF wasn’t all that wet.  So the general message is that our relatively boring winter is going to continue into early March.    The only positive news is that any sort of ridging over us in early March means warmer and sunnier weather as we kick out of inversion season.  We don’t get strong easterly wind after the first week of March either…so winter is probably just going to fade away over the next 10 days.

I’m interested to see how March turns out.  Some El Nino years we turn wet later in March, in others we’ve remained mild and drier than normal.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

39 Responses to El Nino Effects Slip Into March

  1. Really bad winters across north USA and north Europe. Spring should be on the way hopefully!!

    Weather Station Reviews

  2. geo says:

    sorry, too many pale ales.

  3. geo says:

    snow down here in the valley?

    • Jethro (Molalla) says:

      Hey geo, WAKE UP! I think you were sleep-blogging there… sounds like you were having a crazy dream. d8-)

  4. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Sneaked out for a bit of skiing today at Hoodoo. Perfect day! While I was up there I checked out the Clear Lake Resort that is run by Linn Co. Parks. It is really cool. Rustic cabins or camping and boats to rent for fishing or whatever. It’s the headwaters of the McKenzie River. Very clear water. Check it out, open year around.
    http://www.co.linn.or.us/parks/parks/clearlake.html

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      boydo, I love that place. What was the snow situation like at Clear Lake? Was there any?

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Thanks for posting that link. My parents took our family to Clear Lake a few times when I was growing up. Beautiful lake, great trail around it, view of Mt. Washington. Haven’t been there in years, but it looks like its still a nice place to go!

    • ….Boydo, here we go again…
      one of my parents favorite places was Clear lake, we went therealmost every summer for years.. and in the late 50’s-early 60’s, the area referred to as the Linn county site was ( i’m pretty sure) the only place to camp there…i can remember the cabins, and that loud friggin generator at night, and the campground (amongst MANY memories of the area…Sawyer Ice Cave??) and also i remember walking the (then) old (1930’s??) road that had been recently reworked…..
      ..and also….the big camping trip long contest to see who could find the most bottle caps, to be worn by prying the cork out and then pushing it back in with your shirt in the middle….

    • ..jeez i’m starting to sound like an old codger sometimes…

    • Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

      I went fishing on Clear Lake for the first time just last summer — definitely an aptly named body of water. I love the fact that no power boats are allowed… just made the whole experience so much more enjoyable.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      There was very little snow on the ground there today. It was really nice, sunny and peaceful. Just a few ducks diving into that clear cold water.
      Larry, you ARE an old codger. Me too. The pull out to the ice cave is blocked by big boulders for some reason.

    • …there seems to be a concerted effort on the part of the forest service to place boulders at every traditional pullout the last couple years or so…it’s happening at every place i used to or still go to….

  5. PDX Weather Nut says:

    We were in the 60s here today, close to the record high of 66.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      No, PDX had a high of 56.

      You can’t use your unofficial, apparently faulty backyard or car thermometer for the official high, and compare it to official records.

  6. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Great news about the snow! Hopefully it sticks around a while and doesn’t melt in this abnormally warm and dry winter.

  7. lurkyloo says:

    The newspaper seems to think that cold air will be dropping down from AK next week. Anybody notice that? Just curious.

    • Jethro (Molalla) says:

      Hmmm… that’s a little odd. 00z NCEP-GFS suggests nothing of the sort. Looks to be rather mild the next week plus.

  8. Mr Data says:

    And why did Mark (or somebody) disabled the copy and past feature on here?

    Or is it my mouse because I can click (b) on here (B/) just fine.

  9. Mr Data says:

    59.9F and partly cloudy afternoon. (No my sensor is not in the sun!) 😮

    Mom just said she heard on the radio that rain (heavy at times) is coming tonight and I told her that’s it’s hard to get warm like this unless it’s ahead of something.

    Now Mark just mentioned wind at the beach so should be an exciting night for them.

  10. k5mitch says:

    Got out and took some photos this morning before the rain set in.

    Ridgefield Wildlife Refuge
    http://mitch.zenfolio.com/p24309876

  11. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I was happy to have yesterdays weather. The mountains received some snow, and we had both some decent downpours as well as sun breaks.

    If we don’t get some decent snow in the mountains, they could be bare by early July vs. mid August.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      That is of course assuming we get a lot of hot weather this summer. We’re due for a cool one, FWIW.

      I think the moutains will be ok after Spring. This will probably be one of those years when the mountains get more snow in March/April than they did in January/February.

  12. Oldwxwatcher says:

    Another local tv weather personality said yesterday that he expects March weather to be much more “active,” but he didn’t elaborate or say what he based it on. Wonder what model(s) he’s been looking at.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Any word on winds associated with tomorrow’s low? A couple other TV weather personalities have mentioned some gusty winds for tomorrow afternoon, but have yet to offer any possible wind speeds… kinda odd?

    Just curious.

  14. …all these high snow levels leave me itchin’ for camping….

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Hiking season for me starts again in May one the trails have dried out a little bit and the higher level trails start to become snow free (not that it is an issue this year)!

      Looking like I may get started as early as April this year.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Hiking season for me never ends! It does change with the seasons obviously. Right now you can almost hike to 4,000′ with no snow lol.

  15. geo says:

    bring on spring!

  16. boydo3 N Albany says:

    by luck, first?

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