The Weekend Is Here!

Not much to say, sunny, sunny, sunny.  I’m a bit behind and have a job shadow in here this evening, so let’s just say I’m skeptical about getting any significant rain next week.  The new 00z GFS once again pushes the rainfall back…nothing more than a few hundreths until Thursday.

Have fun and get your Vitamin D outside this weekend…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

80 Responses to The Weekend Is Here!

  1. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    March 3rd-6th remains intriguing with 800mb temps dropping to -6 and -7.

    I’d take a little overnight valley dusting for a birthday present. 🙂

  2. Jesse-Orchards says:

    PDX has a new record low for the date. Fell to 27 this morning, breaking the old record of 28 set in 1964.

    Hit 23 here. Easily my coldest temp since December. The budding daffodills didn’t look too happy this morning.

  3. Mr Data says:

    From 10 years of living here I’ve notice we usually get a week of sunshine though not everyday in a row.

    Everyday in a row is a real treat. 🙂

    29.1F this AM for my low.

  4. MamaReen says:

    All you guys who look at the stats maybe can help with this question…don’t we often have a week or so (I think less than a full week usually) of pretty nice weather in February? Even when we have a “typical” wet year?

  5. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    23F have not been this cold since last December!!!!

  6. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    Hillsboro might tie it’s record low of 24 from 1942 today. Certainly the coldest ride to work since early December. 25 even when I left at 6:00am.

  7. k5mitch says:

    34.0 F

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      25F here… Broke the all time low of 28F in 1964!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Well for today’s low at least, not all time. 😉

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

      2005 had a low of 26 today at KHIO, See the NWS preliminary monthly data. Pre 1948 data had a low of 24 on the 22nd for Hillsboro.

  8. W7ENK says:

    What a spectacular day on the mountain! Temp were comfortable and the wind was virtually non-existant. I could almost see forever, the air was so clear.

    My only complaint: After 18+ years of skiing, I wish I’d known what I was getting into! Apparently, I totally SUCK at snowboarding, but I guess it was worth the pain… I’ll make a final decision on that in the morning. All that mattered to me was that my little buddy had a blast! 🙂

    And all I want now is a hot soak in the tub, then my soft warm pillow!

    BTW – My (Milwaukie) station recorded a low of 27.7 last night… FWIW.

    • sds says:

      W7

      I beg to differ with you on the wind at TL on Sun. the 21st–I was there at 7:10 AM and the wind was blowing gravel and ice across the parking lot with gust between 18 to 30 MPH with a temp of 23 degrees–you do the wind chill math!

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, we got there about 9-9:30 and stayed on the short beginners run for most of the day. We didn’t venture down Pucci until about 2:00. It was breezy in the parking lot, but the wind wasn’t really all that noticeable on the run except for maybe a few chilly gusts here and there, and down below it was dead calm. I didn’t have the guts to take the boy any higher up the mountain, and he seemed content to stay there close to the lodge anyway, so it may have been windier up above.

      I guess I was just too focused on not breaking myself to notice the wind! 😆

  9. Karl Bonner says:

    Kind of ironic that the same ridge that brought us unseasonably warm afternoons a couple days ago has morphed into a recipe for unseasonably cold nights. Another reason why this ridge reminds me of fall more than spring…

    Here’s a question you might be able to answer: suppose that temperatures were to now fall back to seasonal norms and stay that way for the foreseeable future. How long would it take before spring plant activity (phenology) lost its jump start and bloom dates, etc, fell back to their normal status?

    I’d imagine we’d stay ahead of the curve for at least a week or two, but can’t count on it beyond that. If normal temps persisted, we should see phenology becoming less and less ahead of schedule as the weeks progressed.

    • W7ENK says:

      I had a conversation along these lines with some friends on Facebook earlier this week…

      My concern is all the early fruit blossoms this year! The problem with the trees blooming so early is that the bees haven’t come out yet, so unfortunately the fruit crops this year could be quite lacking. By the time the bees finally do come out, the blossoms will be gone, and left unpollinated. 😦

      Perhaps a return to cooler, more seasonable temperatures could save some of that by slowing or stalling the blossoms, keeping those that haven’t bloomed yet at bay for a few more weeks to give the bees some time to come out of hibernation?

  10. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    36.7 falling. DP 16

    28km Pacific Basin WV Loop
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=wv&size=28
    Storm track is definitely getting its act together west of 132 W. We’ll have to see how much of this splits or heads down to California in terms of how wet we get next week. I don’t think these will be very cold storms though, so not sure we get much help with the snow pack from any moisture we do get.

    Good night.

  11. Vacationing in the Sydney Australia area. Temps in the low 80’s lately and a little on the muggy side the last couple days. A nice taste of summer.

  12. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    It was a great day out taking pics, all the mountains were out: St. Helens, Hood, Adams, even Rainier! I went down to Vancouver Lake to hopefully get some shots of bald eagles, but didn’t see any. There were plenty of hawks though. I did see a bald eagle by Evergreen High School, but alas no pics.

    Finished the day off with some BBQ petites, BBQ chicken and burgers.

  13. Mr Data says:

    Did anyone enjoy the n-i-c-e day? I mowed the gwass outside for dad 4 the first time this year.

  14. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Widespread DPs in the teens this evening. Will be interesting to see how cold it gets tonight. 45 with a dp of 17 currently, after a sunny 55/26 today.

    I think PDX has a legitimate shot at a record low tomorrow morning if the wind dies off at all. The record for February 22 is only 28, set in 1964.

    Would be ironic if one of the warmest January/February combos in Portland history ended up with a record low and no record highs.

  15. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Dewpoint of single digits now at Vancouver

    4:00pm at Vancouver Airport

    58F Sunny
    13% Humidity

    Dewpoint: 8

  16. dabears (Hillsboro-Tanasbourne) says:

    Hillsboro made it down to 25 this morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight is even colder. Some really low dewpoints out there.

  17. muxpux says:

    made it down to 22.5 here at the house in Longview. i see the airport made it to 25.

  18. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Huge snowstorm in Reno, Nevada last 24 hours

    14″ of the ground near Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport at of 11:30am local time.

    here are the spotter reports

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/mapData/lsr.php

  19. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Lowest relative humidity of 2010 this afternoon

    1:00pm OBS..

    Crawford 18%
    Walnut Grove 19%
    Battle Ground (Downtown) 21%
    Battle Ground Lake 23%

  20. Mr Data says:

    How often do you live in Silverton Andrew?

  21. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Coldest temperatures of 2010 this morning

    27 here at BG Lake

    Other sites in Clark Co:
    23 Yacolt
    24 Battle Ground (Downtown)
    25 Brush Prairie
    26 Crawford
    27 Orchards
    28 Vancouver Pearson

  22. Farmer Steve says:

    27.7 in NW Hillsboro this morning

  23. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I dropped down to a chilly 30.6 @ 7:08 AM. I did have a very light easterly drift most of the night, but at times it did go calm allowing my temps to fall quickly. Currently 39.7 with a NE wind 4-8 mph.

  24. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    My temp: 27

    Anchorage: 32

  25. O.C.Paul says:

    28.6 in upper Oregon City.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      Currently 28 at SLE 24.6 at the Silverton weatherunderground station (though I think temps run a little low on that one).

  26. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Clark County Climate Summary for Feb.20, 2010

    Today marked the 5th consecutive day at 60+ degrees at Pearson Airport @ Vancouver.

  27. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I think this sums up how benign or boring of a weather pattern we’ve been in. Check out the excitement on the 00z WRF-GFS!(Sarcasm implied? Ohhhh I dunnoooo.)

    So there’s a little low you see and it wants to come visit us.

    00z WRF-GFS Detailed Analysis

    925MB TEMP/SLP Model
    7:00 PM Tuesday – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2010022100/images_d2/slp.75.0000.gif The low peaks here at around 1000mb and is at it’s most compact best organization of its life-cycle. Problem is the low weakens slightly from here more so with its structure becoming more baggy which causes the pressure gradient to being to relax/open up.

    925MB TEMP/SLP Model
    10:00 PM – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2010022100/images_d2/slp.78.0000.gif Max gradient looks to be 7-8 MB within 100miles south of the low which could drag over the northern Willamette Valley with a PDX-EUG of 6-8MB.

    Windcast
    10:00 PM – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2010022100/images_d2/wssfc.78.0000.gif
    Some decent winds move up just along the Coast from 4-7 PM. Then A small burst of 30kt S-SW winds surfaces over the northern Willamette Valley. Maybe 25-40mph winds, but not lasting long.

    MAYBE future runs deepen this low just under 1000mb? Or weaken it further more as an open wave around 1010mb. Oh the excitement!

  28. yevpolo1990 says:

    Well i have some news…00z throws a low at us around hour 74 or so…lets see what happens

  29. Mr Data says:

    41F here.

  30. Battle Ground Brian says:

    It’s already down to 35 degrees at 9:00pm here as my humidity bottomed out at 28% this afternoon.

    Certainly some mid to upper 20’s next couple of nights out in this area. Windy during the daytime but it becomes calm overnight unlike east mult co.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      38.3 and falling here. Just a few puffs of east wind, but calm more than anything. PDX-DLS weakened to 1.5mb.

  31. boydo3 N Albany says:

    This map pretty much sums up this winter. Ugh…

  32. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. A real treat and equally as unusual.

    I dropped down to the 38.7 last night as the east winds abated from 5-6 AM sending my temp to plummet quickly due to the very dry air and clear skies. East wind developed again around 6:30 AM though.

    Currently 49.6 with a light easterly wind. PDX-DLS gradient isn’t much to talk about as it is under 2mb now. Supposedly this is going to increase tonight though.
    _________________________________________
    Karl,

    Here are a few links for all GFS model runs.

    NCEP GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
    UW WRF-GFS: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html

    • Runrain says:

      Pretty cool: at an estate sale yesterday I found 2 complete Oregonians, one after the Columbus Day Storm and another after the ’64 flood. Great stories and pictures.

    • SalemPhil says:

      OH MAN!! Good job Runrain, I collect newspapers. I’d flip if I saw those at an estate sale!

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Thanks a bunch, I bookmarked the model sites so I can find them easily from now on.

      I did stumble across one GFS site yesterday, I think it was the first one you listed here. It’s definitely changed over the past 24 hours. The 0C isotherm is not nearly as penetrating around the March 4-6 period as it was yesterday. However even yesterday I didn’t see any signs of cold continental air over the Northwest, it just looked like chilly air from the Gulf of Alaska. I wonder why yevpolo 1990 thought it would be a big winter weather outbreak?

      I also noticed that the 72 hour temperature models are predicting the Valley to stay slightly above freezing tonight and tomorrow morning. Oh well, can’t be perfect!

  33. PDX Weather Nut says:

    It’s a full 15 to 20 degrees above normal at the cross country venue at the Olympics. The racers are racing through slush it looks like.

  34. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Not sure about water restrictions, that may still be a while from now.

    Sure has been beautiful, but I thought the east winds would be a little stronger here. Its been hanging in the 5-10mph range. Must be 5x times that strength over at the Gorge.

  35. PDX Weather Nut says:

    We could come close to having the warmest January & February on record … http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg43.pdf

  36. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Record warmth the last few days in Alaska:
    Temps in the interior have been running 20-35 degrees above normal last 4 days.

    McGrath yesterday hit 46, the average high is 12.

    Fairbanks has a +7.5 degree departure from normal in February so far. Certainly the El Nino is to blame as the huge blocking ridge of high pressure aloft along 130W is creating a mild southerly flow into the frozen tundra of central Alaska.

  37. Mr Data says:

    Battle Ground Brians reply fail:

    That’s why they call it spring break. http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/axe.gif

    God always has to make things as difficuilt as possible for me whenever there is a chance of something being difficult. http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/axe.gif

  38. Mr Data says:

    Just scratched 32F this morning.

  39. Battle Ground Brian says:

    12Z GFS showing snow down to about 500-1000′ on March 5th. Looks like spring is going to take a break.

  40. appraiserbob says:

    HMMMMMM how much is all this beautiful sunny weather going to cost us in wet gloomy days????

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      There is one thing for sure: 2010 is going to be a year with well below normal rainfall amounts.

      And didn’t we only see like 2″ or 3″ of rain in January? Thats kinda scary 😉

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Timmy, it’s mid-February. The rainfall tendencies of the rest of 2010 are anything but certain.

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, it is a fairly safe assumption. If I’m not mistaken, past El Niños tend to spell dry conditions for NW Oregon in the summer, so I’d have to agree with Timmy. Granted, the current El Niño is ending, but I have a feeling we won’t be absent it’s effects on our weather until late into the summer.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      And not just low rainfall amounts … look at the way below normal snow pack which usually holds much of the summer water supply

      Another abnormally hot summer like last year spells water restrictions …

  41. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Looks like most areas outside of the immdeidate gorge lost the east wind last night allowing for temps to drop into the 20s for some areas for the first time since late December.

    Even KVUO is 32, PDX 33.

    It’s frosty out here in Hazel Dell and 30.4.

    • Made it down to 33.3F this am at my location

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      Mike, I was 28 this morning, (maybe a mile or so away from you) and PDX was 31. It always amazes me how much warmer your little microclimate runs every night.

    • Between here and your location there is a big difference in the effects of the east wind…Other than a few short hours “after sunrise” this am, I have had continuous (15mph or more) east winds every day so far in this “nice” weather spell..In fact, I’ve had more days of east winds since January 1st (thru now) than any other year I’ve kept records.(Since 1999)

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I guess. I drove home from a party late last night and took 49th St. right past BBC Elementary. Seemed calm out there and my car thermo said 31. Even where I had been up near 164th and Mill Plain (usually a very east wind prone location) it was calm when I left.

    • Was up on Mill Plain (Near 104th) myself late last night and there still was a breeze at times… (location, location, location??)

      I’m not sure of how to check a “Davis Weather Station” sensor for temp accuracy (if inded it is off). My area is surrounded by large fir trees which may keep the temp up a little…Surrounding WU and CWOP stations are usually within a few degrees of mine here.

      56.3F…east wind gusts to 19 in the past hour.

    • Jesse-Orchards says:

      I think it’s quite possible your overnight temps run a little warm thanks to the shelter of those trees. I always notice the biggest disparity between our temps are during mornings with lots of radiational cooling, which something like big trees around a station would effect the most.

      On the flip side I’m sure those trees keep your Summer highs much cooler than surrounding areas.

  42. k5mitch says:

    37.2 F
    Boring but nice…

  43. yevpolo1990 says:

    Man the air was so fresh today! i loved it!
    i was flying like the wind on the basketball court today 🙂
    I admit sometimes having a 60 degree day like today feels a lot better then some snow, lets see if some tstorms are in the future for us, i really want some! Meanwhile this weekend should be awesome just by looking at the weather we are moving towards. I do see a much more active weather pattern maybe at the end of next week???
    well now need some sleep! hope you guys have a nice day tomorrow!

  44. Karl Bonner says:

    Second! Amazing weather here, we went from morning frost to about 58 by afternoon, but by 10pm we were back down to 40, making the evening star party a bit chilly.

    Noticed that even The Dalles got up to the mid 50s, so they’re getting at least a faint hint of spring weather as well. Tomorrow I’ll call family to see if they’re getting any daffodil blooms there yet. They’ve been out in Eugene-Springfield for almost 2 weeks now.

  45. Battle Ground Brian says:

    First?

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