An Early Look At Hurricane Season

I am still getting use to being the “weather man” among my friends, but always enjoy it when I am asked for advice about the weather.  This question comes from a friend who is getting married this summer and is planning a honeymoon to St. Lucia in August *gulp*.  I was asked when I thought the earliest a hurricane would threaten the small Caribbean island.  Most of us know that it is impossible to forecast a hurricane this far out, but I thought this would be a good time to do some in-depth research on the islands history with hurricanes. It could spark some good conversation about the upcoming hurricane season as well.

Most of the storms that have been recorded since the mid-1800’s were of the tropical storm intensity. A total of 58 storms have hit or skirted by St. Lucia island, and 24 of those occurred in the month of August. As the graphic depicts, only 20% of the storms were hurricanes the strongest being a category 4 storm that hit in 1980.  The geographical location of St. Lucia actually benefits the island in that many storms do not have enough time to develop into strong hurricanes by virtue of being closer to the equator that other locations.

The bad news for my friend is that tropical storms/hurricanes usually make landfall on August 15th, that’s averaged out among all the storms that either skirted or made landfall on the island. That day just happens to fall in the week that she was planning. More bad news: the island is impacted by a storm about every 3 years. Guess when the last storm impacted St. Lucia? If you guessed 2007, you win. It was actually on August 17th when Hurricane Dean passed between a neighboring island and St. Lucia with 100 mile per hour winds. So what will this season bring? Thoughts and predictions?

Pat Rosborough

17 Responses to An Early Look At Hurricane Season

  1. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Days below freezing:

    So far I have had 1 this February.

    My average since 1996 is 11 each February
    My lowest was just 3 back in 1999.
    My highest was 20, last year.

  2. Mr Data says:

    58F for my high and dewpoints below 32F (too low to register) so it’s going to be a bone-chilling night.

    Hopefully I can have one more frost spell before this winter is over.

    Actually except towards the very end of the December blast I haven’t had any hard frost yet.

  3. East winds have calmed down considerably…

    Another beautiful clear day!

    52.1F…..(Top wind gust today was 23)….

  4. Mr Data says:

    “moved it for accuracy overnight, but our white house reflects some heat when the suns out.”

    I didn’t know you lived at the white house Mux. 😉

  5. W7ENK says:

    I’ve often wondered: I’ve seen before when an Atlantic hurricane crosses Mexico and enters into the Pacific; What would happen if such a hurricane were to then strengthen and veer North into LA… Has that EVER happened (in all the history of said geography)… especially during a strong El Niño?

    Just a random bit of curiosity

    • dabears (Hillsboro-Tanasbourne) says:

      The waters are far too cold for a sizeable hurricane to hit LA. The more likely scenario though is for an E. Pac. storm to skirt up the coast of Mexico and head into California. That happens on a somewhat regular basis, but the storms typically weaken below even Tropical Depression thresholds before they make it to California. Your scenario has happened in a way though, but of course all that made it across Mexico was residual moisture. This happened with the remnants of Hurricane Dean a few years ago. I remember standing in a torrential downpour near Palm Springs in August that was a direct result of the leftovers of Dean.

      Also check out the Long Beach tropical storm of 1939. That’s the only tropical system to ever make landfall in CA while still maintaining tropical status.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm

      List of all tropical systems to impact California:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_hurricanes

  6. muxpux says:

    i think its time to move my sensor, its reading 71.8 haha.

    moved it for accuracy overnight, but our white house reflects some heat when the suns out.

  7. Mr Data says:

    55.2F. Remember 55 saves lives……………or not. 🙂

  8. East winds picking up again…

    52.7F

  9. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Coming home last night from I-5 at 12:40am

    33 Degrees at Albertson’s in West Battle Ground

    Drove 2 miles Northeastward…and 4 minutes later

    49 Degrees on Axford road in North Battle Ground

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      It was 48 degrees at my house by Van Mall this AM… I got into North Portland and the temp dropped to 39. That was really messing with my head.

  10. GreyDuck says:

    Average landfall is on… my son’s birthday. Must store that tidbit away for future amusement…

  11. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    First?

    With what is currently forecast to be a weakening or dissapated El-Nino, I wonder if the Atlantic Hurricane starts out slow and then really picks up in late August and September.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      Does El-Nino have any effect on the Atlantic what so ever? I would think it is purely a Pacific Ocean effect and the surrounding regions.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

      El-Nino generally has a very strong negating effect on Atlantic hurricanes.

      It tends to cause atmospheric conditions that produce strong upper level winds over the areas in the Atlantic where tropical storms form, ripping them apart before they can strengthen.

      On a short term basis, El-Nino probably has more influence than any other global condition, affecting weather from Indonesia to Africa.

  12. Rich says:

    Bring an umbrella! 🙂

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