A Dry Cross-Section

February 17, 2010

Here’s the 00z Cross-section from the WRF-GFS up at the UW. Several things to notice: First, there is very little moisture from the surfact to 10,000′ or so through Saturday afternoon (at least). Solid sunshine on the way. Easterly flow increases the next 24 hours and then stays very stable through the weekend. We have a strong east wind on the way but nothing too wild. Gusts around 50-60 mph in the Gorge, so probably at least 80 mph at Crown Pt. Should be good up there the next 3 days. Since the east wind mostly disappears for the season after the first week of March, this maybe be the last or one of the last chances to get thrown to the pavement? The other item of note is the cooling airmass the next 3 days. Check out the 0 deg. Celsius line.  Look how low it drops by Saturday afternoon.  That’s another reason I’ve lowered the high temp forecast the next few days compared to today’s high near 60.  We may have trouble hitting 50 on Saturday and Sunday.  Not exactly a cold spell, but a more typical late February cool east wind.

Models are still mostly together showing a return to westerly flow and rain by next Tuesday at the latest.  The ECMWF is the driest, the GFS a bit faster with the rain arrival.  The point is to enjoy the next 3-5 days of dry weather and sunshine!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen