Back to Dry

A fun weekend for the Nelsens full of cultural enlightenment at the Monster Truck Monster Jam.   My kids need to be exposed to their heritage don’t they?  Plus my 9 year old son has collected something like 25 of those little trucks, so he was super-excited to go.  Wow…$8.50 for a drink?  No wonder I don’t head to our local sports arena much!  My friend got the prize for “first mullet sighting” though.  That would be ANOTHER $8.50 gone out of my pocket…

Moving on to the weather; a very clearly defined weather pattern coming up the next 7 days…REX BLOCK.  The details are a bit tricky, but they probably lead to the same effect…very dry.

An upper-level ridge develops just to our west and north Wednesday, then gradually gets pinched off as we head into the weekend.  Cold air slides down to our east Friday-Monday as undercutting systems start moving into California once again.  As of now it appears that dry northeasterly flow at the surface and above limits cloud cover and definitely rain.  That’s why Steph and I took the rain out of the weekend forecast.  I did just adjust the 7 Day forecast temps down a bit due to increasingly cool surface wind from the northeast.  I doubt we have  chance of hitting 60 anywhere beyond Friday, and maybe not even Thursday or Friday themselves.  But no matter the temperature, it’s going to feel like spring Wednesday-Friday afternoons with no cloud cover and temps at least well into the 50s.

So last Thursday/Friday I had decided to “pull the plug on Winter” either today or Tuesday on the air.  In fact I think I came up with that glorious idea while in the shower or ironing some shirts.  The plan was to make a big deal of the fact that I think we’re done with our chance for a big freeze or significant snow (2″ or more at PDX, the snowy grass in the city in March doesn’t count).  BUT, I got cold feet after seeing different variations of moisture just to our south and cold air just to our northeast this weekend and early next week.  It would be a risky move until the 7-10 day forecast resolves those details a bit better don’t you think?

Enjoy the rain tonight…looks real dry over the next week!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

27 Responses to Back to Dry

  1. W7ENK says:

    63.9° for a high in Milwaukie today! I hope that’s accurate… sure felt like it to me, but I’m still just a bit skeptical.

    So, anyone have any idea what the conditions on Mount Hood will be like on Sunday? I’m taking my little buddy snowboarding for his first time, and I don’t want it to suck to badly for him! 🙂

  2. k5mitch says:

    60.0 F
    Mostly sunny, thats about it…

    • Carl in Cascade Park says:

      Perfect day for a round of golf! Eastmoreland was rather muddy though but all in all, great weather for a round of golf. 🙂

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    57F under a mostly sunny sky! Even under east wind influence there is just no way we can have any sort of frozen precip long term with this level of warmth. It definitely feels like the average early May afternoon to me.

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Wet from west + cold from east = snow/ice. Hey Mark, you reminded me of my son when he was around that age (long ago) all he was interested in was power rangers and super hero’s, try as I might, I couldn’t get him interested in cars or fishing. Now he lives to play computer games.

  5. …wishcasting at it’s best(worst)…look at days 7-10 of this,and notice the buildup of cold air that seems to be moving a tad west….
    like i said, wishcasting in lala land:
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html

  6. Pleasant 52.5° out…Showers are dwindling down…Nice surge of east winds starting tomorrow, peaking out Thursday PM/Friday AM…Should make for some dry conditions with cool overnight temps in the wind sheltered areas.

    52.5F….0.05″ rain leftover from earlier this am.

  7. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    The updated 12z GFS shows the NE winds starting around noon tomorrow. Any fog we do get tonight will be dissipated probably on it’s own by then, but that will really dry things out.

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_or_pcp1+//72/1

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    Hey Mark, don’t wuss out now. Winters been over for weeks. Say since New Years Day. At a minimum the next 7-10 days we looking for daily maximums to achieve 50 degrees. And you don’t see many snowy days with those temps. Right now in Salem on this fine mid February day at 10:30 AM it’s 55 degrees. And Spring training starts in two days. Thank you El-Nino for an early Spring.

  9. appraiserbob says:

    WITH THE BIG QUESTION BEING…HOW FAR WEST WILL THE COLD AIR PUSH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE MIGHT ACCOMPANY IT.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      I don’t see any moisture accompanying the cold air. It will be basically dry until Sunday. I wonder though, will places like the eastern Gorge will see a chance of snow come Sunday night???

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      WHAT!?! SNOW!?! 😀

  10. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I noticed a rhododendron bush the other day already in full bloom. It is mild this morning, already 51 degrees, which is above our normal high and it’s 8 AM.

    The GFS continues to show an abrupt change to offshore flow around 4 PM tomorrow which then increases rapidly.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

    It also continues the east wind through early Sunday.

    Looks like it should be dry through late Sunday as well.

    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_slp_mu_loop.shtml

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    This to me is eerie… I found a house spider(The big brown hairy kind) on my garage steps. I have never see these so early in the year and typically only ever do May through September. My Brother said he’s had a few around his place as well.

    Anyone else seeing them?

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

      No spiders, but I do notice the little black ants are very active for so early in the year.

    • umpire says:

      Yup, already have the ant bait out – they’ve been here for a week or two.

      Also, spent yesterday in Salem – it was foggy/drizzly all day – no sun at all. I hear from co-workers yesterday (Monday) was sunny here in Portland, and folks got yard work done. Hopefully the dry weather holds until Saturday, or (cough, cough) I may be coming down with something on Thursday or Friday!

    • ….I’ve seen a heap of those little ant $&I(%#@!, and could someone please get the memo to the woodstock size crowd of frogs that noise curfew is at ten????

  12. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    Uh….It’s been feeling like spring since…uh…the second half of January….

    I was out pruning the trees this weekend and my crabapple is about to bloom. It didn’t bloom until sometime in early-mid April last year.

  13. Jory (Sandy) says:

    Now, if it clears out, wouldn’t that lead to Fog? Or is the East wind going to make an appearance?

    • Karl Bonner says:

      Definitely a good chance of nighttime fog, but it’s too close to spring for the fog to linger all day and a solid inversion layer to set up. Well, not impossible to get persistent fog and a cold afternoon, but very unlikely. Especially several such days in a row. We’d have better luck of that happening in the 3rd week of November than in the 3rd week of February.

      However northeast winds will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler than we were originally expecting. But Mark has the common sense to remind us all that it doesn’t have to hit 60 to qualify as a “spring-like” day.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Should see fog, but mainly away from the Portland metro area. Places south of say, Wilsonville, maybe have the fog.

  14. 48.8°…East winds to 15 mph..

  15. sds says:

    Early spring is definitly here on this el nino year1

  16. yevpolo1990 says:

    Hmm, yea risky move for sure, but i really would like another snow event

  17. Ben Randall Tillamook City says:

    Very tricky at forecast hour 168 on euro

  18. Westside Guy says:

    First?

    Yay! Looking forward to a nice dry stretch!

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