Breaking News!

This just came in from our data vendor at 10:10pm:

ATTENTION WSI MODEL DATA USERS:

The 00 UTC ECMWF model run will be delayed indefinitely due to problems at our data vendor. There is currently no estimate on the delay at this time. A message will be sent out once we have an update on this situation.

Start time of Outage: 0555 UTC (12:55 ET 2-10-1010) End time of Outage: UNKNOWN

Glad it wasn’t before a big cold spell…that would have been a real crisis.

Okay, now you can resume complaining about the boring weather.

65 Responses to Breaking News!

  1. PDX Weather Nut says:

    LOL … still strangely warm for this time of year

    I wonder if climate change enhanced the water temperature in the El Nino ring across the Pacific this winter.

  2. FWIW, Latest AFD:

    Looking at the position of the upper low on infrared satellite…
    where the focus of the jet energy is…and the first glimpses of
    visible imagery of the low this morning…have a very strong hunch
    that the 12z GFS has analyzed the developing surface low much too
    far north…possibly by as much as 150-200 miles. The 12z NAM has a
    somewhat better handle on the position of the low…placing it near
    42-43n and 131w at this time. According to latest visible satellite
    imagery it appears the developing surface low is really somewhere
    near 41n/131w as of 17z…near the Point of inflection of the middle
    level cloud stream. Based on this analysis prefer the 12z NAM
    solution much better than the 12z GFS solution…and it appears the
    low is taking a more southern track than even the 12z NAM. Believe
    the developing low will take a track closer to the olympic peninsula
    than either the NAM or GFS presently suggest.

    This more southern track spells windy conditions for the Portland
    metropolitan area and the interior lowlands. Looking at the 12z GFS and NAM
    models…the 12z GFS is much weaker with the low level wind field
    over our interior lowlands than the NAM. The downscaled 5km version
    of the NAM shows 50-60 knots winds at 925 mb over the Portland area this
    evening…while the downscaled version of the GFS only shows 25-35 knots
    winds at the same levels. Again…prefer the NAM solution. Therefore
    will be issuing a Wind Advisory for our interior lowlands from the
    Clark County southward…including the Vancouver… Portland…Salem
    and Eugene areas for gusts up to 50 miles per hour this evening. It is not out
    of the realm of possibility that this will eventually need to be
    upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Current High Wind Warning for the
    coast looks good…as NAM shows 60-70 knots 925 mb winds there. The
    strongest wind will likely be from about Garibaldi southward.

  3. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Don’t think it’ll be anything but breezy really. Maybe a few good gusts, but nothing more than we’ve already seen this winter.

    Gradients aren’t that compact. At best the gradient would be about 8mb from Eugene to Olympia at 10pm tonight if I’m looking at it correctly. The storm is too far offshore. The only thing working with us is warm temps that would bring down mixing, but again, I don’t expect a huge event here.

  4. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    Well the NWS thinks winds are possible. A wind advisory was issued a little while ago. I see a mention of at least a possible gust to 50.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ORZ006&warncounty=ORC051&firewxzone=ORZ604&local_place1=Portland+OR&product1=Wind+Advisory

  5. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    12z GFS runs keep tonights low off shore with landfall at northern tip of Vancouver Island. WRF-GFS X-section still suggest some mixing may occur:
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/load.cgi?latest+YYYYMMDDHH/images_d2/kpdx.th.gif+text+12%20km%20Portland,OR%2045.59N,122.59W

    Looks like gusts in the 30’s, maybe a stray 40. I guess that’s about the best this winter can muster…

  6. Mr Data says:

    I like the famous winter song to that time lapse but I won’t mention it hear as it will cause everyone in an uproar.

    Right now it has an ocean feeel outside with temps of 47F and breezy winds.

    It’s pretty neat. 🙂

    Let it s…………….never mind. http://www.smileyhut.com/naughty/dead_n_final.gif

  7. MamaReen says:

    Being a native New Englander, I have been lurking over at wbztv’s weather blog in Boston. The blog was so insulting to the mets over today’s “blown” forecast (blizzard) that the exec producer had to write a lengthy response. I say, at least they got SOME snow!!!

  8. Austin-felida says:

    This weather is boring i swear im going to just idk get snow machine and make snow myself

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I do like the looks on WV Loop of the system (Thursday’s low) chugging eastward near 37.5 N, 145 W.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    I think it will be a bit under 990mb. I wonder what 00z WRF-GFS spits out tonight.

  10. Ashley watson says:

    Just some random interesting thoughts to ponder,

    1.Portland airport’ snowiest January was 41 inches
    2. New york city and washington Dc Snowiest month was only in the 30 inch range
    3. The east coast seems to still be able to break all time low temperature records and all time snowfall records.
    4. It doesn’t appear by any strech of the imagination that we will ever break our snowiest season ever or record lows. Why is that? But bet if someone that cared would spend a lot of time researching this they would come up with a better answer than has thus far been presented.

    now you can argue amongst yourselves

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      I’ll give my thoughts. The right conditions for snow come together much more often on the East coast than here in Western Oregon. Hence, they have a greater chance of breaking their records in any given winter. As to why our records are higher than theirs, it comes down to where we are geographically. We are 60 miles inland from the largest ocean on the planet and our weather mostly comes from that “direction”. When conditions are (maybe were?) right for us, that feed of moisture translates to a lot of snow. A great recent example is December 2008. A past example is Eugene in 1969 (roughly 3 feet fell in a couple of days). In either case, that kind of snowfall would be big on the East coast. But how often does that happen here as compared to there?

  11. mariah visit
    nino dropping perma block
    brief moment of joy

  12. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    No one read the afternoon NWS AFD? Maybe some excitement in our weather…. Maybe.

    THURSDAY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 35N/150W RACES INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE RESPECTABLE…BUT NOT LIKELY EXCESSIVE DESPITE THIS SYSTEMS WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF OUR COAST RANGE LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR QPF…WHILE THE INLAND VALLEYS AVERAGE AROUND 0.50 INCH THROUGH THU EVENING.

    THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING…NOT ONLY ALONG THE COAST BUT INLAND AS WELL. CURRENTLY THERE IS A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON TO SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THIS…SINCE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. IF THE LOW TRACKS TOO FAR OFFSHORE…THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO KEEP WINDS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING…ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A BRIEF GUST AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ITSELF MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER… IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST OR MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FLATTERY AS THE GFS AND NOW THE NAM ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST…WINDS COULD PUSH MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE COAST.

    IF THE LANDFALLING TRACK VERIFIES…AS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY…THERE WILL ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE 18Z NAM SUGGESTS 40-50 KT 925 MB WINDS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 03Z FRI…OR 7 PM LOCAL TIME THU EVENING. WITH A SHARP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE…THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MIXING TO BRING AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ENERGY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS IS A QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM… SO THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ONLY LAST 2-4 HOURS…BUT THOSE IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AND OTHER INTERIOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SURGE OF WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPS THU EVENING.

    • Thanks for posting that, Rob. I just noticed that the NWS updated the forecast with potential gusts to 40mph tomorrow evening.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Hey, Ice

      No problem. Well assuming this all plays out I would think gusts could be 45-55mph isolated probably. BUT

      BUTTTT

      If the low intensifies a bit more…..

      or if it swings further north = a Dud and the depressive doldrums of El Nino continue.

    • Jethro (Molalla) says:

      Yev and I were talking about this yesterday. PDX 4KM X-section has been calling for good mixing with 30 knot winds down to the surface (for Friday night).

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I have only looked at models off/on. I’ve really been out of the loop….

      For once tonight’s 00z might be interesting. It has been a long time since anyone can say that.

    • Jethro (Molalla) says:

      I noticed the 18z NCEP-GFS is looking less favorite for high winds, and the latest x-section has backed off the winds… now showing 25 knot winds:
      http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/load.cgi?latest YYYYMMDDHH/images_d3/kpdx.th.gif text 4 km Portland,OR 45.59N,122.59W

      Hopefully the 00z won’t dash our hopes for a little bit of fun weather!

    • Jethro (Molalla) says:

      *favorable

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      This storm WILL NOT be a huge wind producer.

    • ..perhaps not a huge wind producer, but at this point, Ma nature can feed this old dog just about any bone….

    • Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

      I agree Tyler, but at this point even the possibility of 25knot sustained winds is a lot more exciting than anything we’ve seen since that series of lows that came through last month. It’s sad that they won’t even be as strong as those storms, but as Larry pointed out, it’s all we’ve got at this point.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Tyler,

      How can it be written in stone that this will or won’t be a wind producer…. I think it’s possible.

  13. muxpux says:

    my fav!

    and thanx tyler, now i just spent about 20 minutes watching random time lapse snow videos. absolutely mesmorizing!

  14. Mr Data says:

    My highs have been in the mid 40s for the last two days which has fallen (quite a bit) short of the 50F forecasted.

    Does anyone know why we aren’t getting Mark’s warmer air?

    Usually we are only 1 or 2 degrees short of Mark’s forecast on any given day during the winter season.

    (in the summer it’s usually reverse)

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Probably because of a low level inversion…fog. Our area up around the gorge scoured out the last couple of days, but areas further south were stuck in the murk.

  15. Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

    For all the snow lovers…check out this shirt on woot.com

    http://shirt.woot.com/Default.aspx?WootSaleId=12189&ref=iDealyzer

    Just thought if share, it’s a funny one 🙂

  16. Cold 41° rain….0.08″ so far..

    Sis-in-law has 7.5″ in Stafford (VA)…She’s had more than 5 feet this winter so far…

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    Here is the Accuweather forecast for Salem for next week.
    Thursday, Feb 18

    Mostly Sunny
    Sunshine and patchy clouds
    Low: 38 °F
    High: 64 °F

    Friday, Feb 19

    Mostly Sunny
    Mostly sunny
    Low: 39 °F
    High: 63 °F

    Saturday, Feb 20

    Sunny
    Sunny
    Low: 38 °F
    High: 62 °F

    Sunday, Feb 21

    Rain
    Colder with rain
    Low: 36 °F
    High: 52 °F

    Monday, Feb 22

    Cloudy
    Considerable cloudiness
    Low: 34 °F
    High: 53 °F

    Tuesday, Feb 23

    Mostly Cloudy
    Mostly cloudy
    Low: 38 °F
    High: 60 °F

    Wednesday, Feb 24

    Partly Sunny
    Partial sunshine
    Low: 40 °F
    High: 63 °F

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    Just saw the latest gfs meteogram on nws site and shows temps headed to the 60’s in the next week. The weather looks a lot drier as well. Bring out the Hawaiian shirts and Bermuda shorts it’s springtime.

  19. Chuck on Mt Scott says:

    If anyone is interested in live coverage from the DC area, go to http://www.myfoxdc.com/subindex/live_video/live_newscasts . This is pretty amazing event happening there.

  20. pgiorgio says:

    Anyone think 9 inches in 1 hour is possible? This guy claims that in Baltimore

    “I know what happened and it was acknowledged on TV then but I find no record of it on the web. Believe it or not in a February 1978 Baltimore, that’s Maryland, folks, not Minnesota or Colorado, received 9 inches in the last hour of the storm. The storm had stalled right over the Cheasapeake Bay and just pumped the moisture in. It was so remarkable, my kids and I sat with the storm door opened against the 15 inches already on the ground and watched it accumulate.”

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I would say probably not. The most I’ve personally ever heard of was 6″ per hour from a heavy lake effect snow band.

      Wondering if this guy had some drifting of the snow that skewed the depth of snow…. 9 inches just seems hard to imagine. Buttttt who knows I could be wrong.

      Anyone else?

    • W7ENK says:

      Well, I suppose this could be possible… unlikely, but possible. I remember hearing once that on average, 10 inches of snow equals one inch of rain, so think of it like when you hear of rainfall coming down at a rate of an inch an hour…

  21. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Not OUR weather related, but pretty incredible…

    This is from around DC

  22. Karl Bonner says:

    Mark, I think it’d be great if, at some time during the next 7 days or so, you devoted one blog entry specifically to discuss “false springs” in the Northwest. Doesn’t need to be long and elaborate, just enough to give decent explanation. I’m sure a lot of us would cheer – if we can’t have wild winter weather then let’s at least get something enjoyable like low 60s on a crystal clear afternoon.

    And BTW, 60-degree afternoons that had help from a subtropical wind or a balmy, cloudy night don’t count! The warming has to come almost entirely from direct solar radiation.

  23. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Clouds moving in nicely this morning…but no good sunrise.

    Looks like we could get a small dry window for the weekend (most of Saturday afternoon). Doesn’t necessarily mean sunny, but at least dry.

  24. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Clark County Climate Summary for Feb, 09 2010

    Tonifht is the first freeze of the year in many parts of Clark county. Odd how it comes on such a mild day as it locally reached 60 degrees in a few locales across the area today. It was 59 degrees in West Brush Prairie at the disc golf course today around 2:00pm for example.

  25. Karl Bonner says:

    I have nothing to complain about weather-wise. I noticed you put 57 for the highs on Thu. and Sat. then turning dry again early next week. Could this be the beginning of the “false spring” you alluded to last week and I’ve been babbling about all winter long?

  26. Mr Data says:

    In reply to both Mark and Timmy: I know it sucks when we don’t have a thing called (sleet). 😦

    Mark I didn’t know you get so many emails like that in a day but it makes sense since you are a business no matter how much of a weather (geek) you are at heart.

    🙂 😦 😕

  27. Mr Data says:

    37.8F now. The first 37F I have seen in a LOOOOOOOOONG time.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I think Beaverton was 33F this morning, been chilly but without our friend called “Precip” 🙂

  28. Mr Data says:

    Hey Mark I sent you a reply to your email you sent me yet there is no response.

    Care to elaborate as of why please? (in an email of course) but if you are too busy or something then a blog post will be nice.

    🙂

    Bloggers I am not trying to push his button either so don’t even start there.

  29. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Funny, the minute I come back after a long busy day, this is posted! 😉

    Yeah imagine if our big windstorm was about to happen when this model screwed up.

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