Groundhog Day

Just for fun I decided to see what that little rodent would have forecast in different parts of the Portland-Vancouver Metro Area.  Since McMinnville and most of Clark County were cloudy, that means no shadow there.  So obviously Spring will arrive quite a bit earlier in those spots right?  Sure…

Moving on, the weather is still in a dead zone the next few days.  There is a nice little upper-level disturbance that swings north along the Coast tomorrow…looks a bit unstable out there, but tough to get anything exciting inland in February.

Friday should be a nice day like today.  We’re in between systems and have weak offshore flow, so that could be a 55-57 degree day.

Next week looks even deader than this one!  The GFS and ECMWF have both been showing some form of weak ridging along the West Coast.  The new 00z ECMWF has no precipitation over us Sunday afternoon through Friday of next week.  The 00z GFS is similar with some rain returning a week from Friday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

158 Responses to Groundhog Day

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Guys, incase you haven’t noticed, scientists have been making predictions of a 9.0 earthquake in the future. I don’t just throw random comments out and put a smiley at the end, and I said “just joking” at the end anyways… 🙂 jeez

  2. Mr Data says:

    Glad we aren’t like Flordia where it’s hot most of the year. 😛

    47F and still hoping for one more shot of artic air even without snow for the month.

    Hell maybe we ill break record lows in March and have a spring break freeze.

  3. Corbett Tez says:

    Timmy, seriously!? Smiley faces when referring to a 9.0 earthquake!? Are you F’ing kidding me!?

    • W7ENK says:

      Hey now, compared to the action we’ve seen this winter??? The guy’s starving for something, anything interesting, so I can’t fault him for cracking a smile at the thought.

      Trust me, he wouldn’t be smiling at the aftermath…

    • Mr Data says:

      I’m with you W7ENK.

      I’m ready to rock n roll though the aftermath won’t be fun but maybe we can all have a blackout party 😉

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I cannot even entertain the though of such a disaster, a catastrophe such as this. Let’s hope the recent quakes are relieving pressure built up and nothing too alarming.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:


      C’mon east wind! 🙂

  4. Matthew says:

    I would give this sad excuse of a winter a D. I’m not going to give it a F for that one week of super cold lows and one day of snow. But I was close. It is over unless we have a suprize within the next 15 days.

  5. East winds continue brisk….

    47.6F…Gusts to 25 in the past hour…0.18″ rain…Pressure slowly rebounding at 29.487″

  6. ….totally non-weather, unless you count the low pressure warnings my wrist sends….
    Hey all, does anyone here know of anyone doing any research, investigations, etc into the waste of healthcare dollars in workmans comp?….I’m looking for leads, as I’ve got a good “where the money goes” story to tell…
    I’m posting this anywhere i can think of, sorry for the non weather subject matter, but I’m pissed…..
    Please, hit me off list with any replies, email is

  7. Ashley WATSON says:

    Does anybody know if Sandy gets more snow than corbett
    are there any snowfall data for Sandy????

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      The area Southeast of Sandy gets alot more snow than Corbett. If you take music camp road southward from Shorty’s corner, you can get up into the foothills between 1100-2100ft. I looked to buy a home out there in 2005 but everything was too pricey. Lenhart Butte is where the road ends up in those foothills at an elevation of 2117ft. You can expect about 20-30″ of snow a year on average in this area.

    • …you can also go farther south on firwood rd and hit the wildcat mountain region, and travel through the foothills to estacada; anything above about 1400 feet in that foothill region seems to see good snows most years…

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      If either location was equal otherwise, I’d rather live in Corbett because of much better winter weather in general. Colder, windier, and occasional ice storms too. It just feels much more like winter up there. Plus easier access to the Metro Area (10-15 minutes).

    • …right on all accounts, Mark, especially the access to town….

    • sds says:

      I don’t have to and don’t want to go to “TOWN’, so that area has better access to Mt. Hood, which would put it higher on my list!

  8. A nice mass of yellow/red echoes on the latest radar image moving into the west side of town…

    48.7°…East wind gusts to 20 and rain has begun here.

  9. Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

    Anyone read about another earthquake just off of the N CA coast? It was near Eureka, a 5.95 quake. My brother-in-law is working down there right now and it’s the 2nd one in about 3 weeks. The one prior to this was a 6.1 magnitude.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      9.0 quake coming? 🙂


    • sds says:


      There will be NO smiley faces after a 9.0 quake!!!! Only lots of dead people and wrecked buildings and infrastructure,

    • W7ENK says:

      Not to alarm anyone, but actually, that’s entirely possible…

      I was heavily involved with Emergency Preparedness while working at OHSU, particularly dealing with disaster communications between hospitals. Earthquake was the most common scenario we exercised during my ~10 years up there. Being exposed to all the technical blah-blah over those years, I picked up a thing or two… 🙂

      The site of these two moderate earthquakes appears to be at the Southern-most tip of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, an area that runs the length of the PNW coast from Eureka, CA to the North end of Vancouver Island. Geologists believe that this fault ruptures, possibly in it’s entirety, at intervals of 300 to 600 years. The last major earthquake along this zone was in January 1700, so just over 310 years ago.

      If (when) it ruptures, expect to experience moderate to violent shaking in the Portland area (between magnitude 6 and 8) for upwards of 5 minutes or more.

      I hope I’ve long left this Earth behind by then!

      But, if there’s movement occurring along that fault, then it might be something to watch closely. I’m sure that if there were a situation developing, the USGS might issue some sort of a statement? At least I’d hope!

    • W7ENK says:

      Okay, so the 8) was supposed to be the number 8 followed by a ), but the infinite wisdom of the internets read my mind incorrectly and … well, that was the result!

    • Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

      W7- I did read today that the two quakes were not on the same fault lines. Otherwise they would’ve considered it an aftershock. (that’s what they say anyways!) So, it sounds good for us that they were not both on the same faults 🙂

  10. Mr Data says:

    Hi Rob. Without getting into a western weather argument 😉 I just want to point out that in the last year Tim (ttsea) has cleaned up yhis posts quite a bit. 🙂

    He actually now uses historical figures now to make his claims instead of just saying stuff like a politican full of hot air. 😮

    He does’nt go on and on and on and on and on complaining about (paint on the houses peeling off with the constant rain) and how (everybody) is depresssed as a result of the lack of sunshine

    In reality the PNW does have the highest suicide rates because a good amount of people get season disorder or something like that coupled with bad life problems. 😕

    Will anyone puhleeze clarify me on this? 😕

  11. Kirk says:

    Thanks I will always be lurking and I will still post from time to time. You all seem like friends even though we have never met.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I’ve never met anyone on this blog either, perhaps we will have our chance next AMS Conference?

  12. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    I know this aint anywhere near convection, but the way things are moving along, this line of moderate to heavy showers to our SW is 100% immitating the May 2nd 2009 severe t-storm.

    Been so boring lately I just had to make a reference to a storm.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    East wind appears to be increasing. I’m receiving gusts 35+mph.

    Surface gradients
    As of 1 PM|Current|Hourly Change
    PDX-DLS: -6.1mb | 1.2mb Increase
    TTD-DLS: -5.5mb | 1.0mb Increase
    OTH-GEG: -11.1mb | 0.8mb Increase

    • Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

      Sorry you guys are having such a dud of a winter. But you would have to think after last winter, there might be a slight downturn in the snowfall dept. Though anything is still possible over the next few weeks..

      Not much going on here.. Only expecting 4-8″ tomorrow into saturday.. Would be nice to have a 3 day weekend.. 🙂

    • Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

      Pretty dang breezy here too!

    • lurkyloo says:

      It’s blowing here too (1/2 mi. W of Rocky Butte). Didn’t expect it to be this windy. Least it’s something …

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Hey Sean. Well I’m fine with it…. I mean it’s just weather, right? More important things going on. It’s been the biggest east wind season I can remember. Had surprise snow on December 29th. Heck some years I don’t even get a trace. We were due for a year like this and it reminds of how truly historic December 2008 really was. It just puts things in perspective as to how extremely rare of an occurrence it was.

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      Im at reynolds high school right now.

      Man that wind has been blowing hard all day. My constuction class has to hang trusses in it!lol

      Do we think that the winds will get strongerlater today? 🙂

  14. ashley watson says:

    this Question is for Mark Nelson,

    My wife just had a baby and is really close to her family so she wants to move back to the Portland Vancouver area. I really hate the rain and the city so my question is do they have any houses for sale in corbett?? it seems like in the lat few years you guys have scored big with snowfall. How far are you from gresham and troutdale?? What is my best bet to escape the insanity of the rain and city and atleast get 15-25 inches of snow in a winter????

    Ashley Watson

    • Runrain says:

      MY answer, as a life long resident, is Hood River. Only an hour from Portland too.

    • Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

      Ashley – in order to get that much snow you’d have to move even closer to Mt.Hood. Maybe Welches area? Corbett does get a bit more snow than us in Portland, but nowhere near 15-25 inches each year. Corbett is also extremely windy much of the winter.

      Do you have a Realtor in our area?? Where are you coming from??

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      If a job wasn’t necessary, I would live in Hood River too.

    • wwm says:

      Corbett gets as much rain as Portland, if the conditions are favorable Corbett gets snow before Portland and overall does on average get more then us. However, there is more pollen in spring and definitly more wind in the wind zones and it is more persistant(sp?) then in the lowlands. The other thing you have to remember is house prices although lower are still quite high up there, along with outrageous property tax bills and it is in mult. county.

      I am not trying to steer you away, I just think if given a choice I would look at Camas area first for all the reasons stated above.

    • Gidrons says:

      I’m confused…why would you want to live by your in-laws?? jk

  15. Mr Data says:

    Has anyone read the NWS (Sarcasm weather warning) for Western Washington yet?

    It was in advisory mode last night but now just been upgraded to a warning until we get our sunshine with brisk east winds.

  16. Mr Data says:

    Disclaimer Note:
    Mr Data does not handle sarcasim well so today if he even sees hints of sarcasim he will not go to Western and turn on the (KPTV Blog shield) instead: 😉

    Maybe the nice weather will cause Western to stop making fun of Tim do you think?

    Right now they are in a thick n juicy sarcastic expresss mode and mostly make fun of a member called Tim.

    Todays weather:
    Sarcascim express with 2 inches of sarcasim rain turing heavy at times especally on the foothils and a lowland flood watch for minor flooding.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Without bringing up Western.. They are still making fun of Tim? (ttsea) well a lot of it is his fault he’s such a complainer. 😆

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