A Messed Up Forecast & World Wind Record

The 12 hour forecast (rain/snow) valid at 4pm this afternoon. From the 12z WSI-WRF model we use here at KPTV.

You’ll definitely want to click on the image to get a better look, but we sure missed the afternoon showers today.  Last night the same model showed showers developing over the Coast Range and drifting out over the northern Valley this afternoon.  I discounted it, assuming this model was once again over-doing the precipitation.  But it was right on.  Actually the batch of showers has been sitting directly over north Portland and Vancouver for almost 3 hours!  Obviously it’s not a “high impact” event like the surprise snowstorm, but still a very annoying screwup in the forecast.

Before we move on; due to today’s events I should clarify that there are NO nude photos of me anywhere on the internet, so please don’t bother searching.

Okay, now that’s out of the way…did you hear about the new world record windspeed?  253mph!  And it didn’t just happen yesterday, it was 14 years ago!  Check it out here.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

99 Responses to A Messed Up Forecast & World Wind Record

  1. yevpolo1990 says:

    I bet I can find that can make weather people smile!

  2. Sarah in West Linn says:

    Come back, Gradient Keeper. Please.

  3. The program, Bufget/Bufkit, is fantastic, especially after the “Sounding Boot Camp 101” last weekend..

    47.4F….Still some gusty east winds….

  4. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Gradient PDX-DLS is around -4 mb.

    This is surely producing winds gusting 30-40 mph, but only east of 205!!!

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KPDX+KDLS

  5. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Fog seemed to linger here longer than anywhere else, you can see it slosh around…just a light easterly drift now with some dry air.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oooh, me likey! What software did you use for this time lapse? Are you using a USB web cam, or something more sophisticated?

      Info please! 🙂 My method is laborious, and the output still sucks.

  6. O.C.Paul says:

    Yep, the second saddest January on record. It’s the 27th and wer’e all excited about our first frost.
    I hope next fall/winter is a Nina monster.

  7. Mr Data says:

    Do Elninos mean cold springs with possibly exciting late frost and/or freak late snow?

  8. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Hmmm… There appears to be some life in the lala land portion of the GFS run.

  9. rob is half the reason i read the blog 🙂

  10. Gidrons says:

    Here’s NOAA’s El Nino Jan 21 forecast:

    STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS WARM
    EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST (THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKEN) INTO AT LEAST EARLY
    BOREAL SPRING 2010, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE US
    SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INTO THE APR-MAY-JUN (AMJ) 2010
    SEASON. THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS USUALLY
    GREATEST DURING THE LATE WINTER SEASON. MANY PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT THE
    EL NINO IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN
    THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THOUGH SOME MODELS PREDICT THAT THIS WARM EPISODE MAY
    EXTEND INTO SUMMER, IMPACTS ON THE US TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
    SPRING AND BEYOND, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.

    THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2010 INDICATES AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE
    NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ACROSS THE
    NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE
    UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST
    OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM CENTRAL NEW
    MEXICO EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
    IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURE
    IS SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR,
    AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED.

    THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING FMA 2010 ARE HIGHER THAN USUAL
    IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
    THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED
    ALONG THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING A
    NORTHWARD EXTENSION THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
    LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IS SIMILAR TO THE
    CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE MEDIAN
    PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.

    BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
    NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
    http://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

    CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

    WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
    AVERAGE NEAR THE EQUATOR THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
    EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS NOW EXCEED +2.0 DEGREES
    C ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 175 W AND 95 W, AND ARE MORE THAN +1.0
    DEGREES C ABOVE AVERAGE FROM 170 E TO ABOUT 90 W. THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE
    NINO 3.4 REGION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN RECENT WEEKS AND CURRENTLY
    AVERAGE +1.8 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL. THE SUBSURFACE HEAT CONTENT IS GENERALLY
    ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 200 METERS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
    POSITIVE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXTEND EASTWARD FROM 160 E TO
    NEAR THE COAST OF ECUADOR. AN AREA OF +6.0 DEGREES C ANOMALIES AT 50 METER
    DEPTH CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. EQUATORIAL OUTGOING LONGWAVE
    RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES REFLECT EL NINO CONDITIONS, WITH SUPPRESSED
    CONVECTION (FOR THE MOST PART) OVER INDONESIA AND ENHANCED CONVECTION NEAR THE
    DATE LINE. HISTORICALLY, POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE UPPER PACIFIC
    OCEAN PRECEDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO EVENTS. THUS TROPICAL PACIFIC SSTS
    ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS
    DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

    PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

    THE CURRENT MEAN PDF CORRECTED ENSEMBLE CFS FORECAST INDICATES SST ANOMALIES IN
    THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE PRESENTLY AT A MAXIMUM JUST UNDER +2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS.
    THE PDF CORRECTED CFS ANTICIPATES A SLOW DECLINE IN SST ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
    FIRST HALF OF 2010, WITH ANOMALY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE +0.5 DEGREES C THROUGH
    JJA. THE CPC STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT SOMEWHAT LOWER SST ANOMALIES, WITH FMA
    DEPARTURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT +1.1 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE MARKOV MODEL
    AND NEAR +0.5 DEGREES C FOR THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) AND
    CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) MODELS. THE CPC CONSOLIDATION (CON) OF THESE FOUR NINO
    3.4 SST ANOMALY FORECASTS IS ABOUT +0.8 DEGREES C FOR FMA AND SHOWS A GRADUAL
    DECREASE IN SST ANOMALIES FROM CURRENT LEVELS TO AROUND +0.5 DEGREES C BY THE
    AMJ SEASON. AFTER THAT, THE CONSOLIDATION’S PREDICTED NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES
    DECLINE VERY SLOWLY TO +0.3 DEGREES C BY LATE SUMMER.

  11. Nice 51.7° January day…East wind gusts to 16 mph the past hour..High clouds moving in overhead from the system offshore..

    Lowest temp of the month here so far has been 33.7°, clear back on the 7th….A warm January for sure!

    Appears that Febuary will start off with more of the same.

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    Just read a statement from wsi.com. They are predicting El-Nino to be peaking just about now. Then waning as we go into Summer. So who knows about next Winter. La Nina or La Nada. At least it doesn’t look like next Winter will be another El-Nino. @1:30PM Salem is Partly Sunny and 45 degrees.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

      The nino region temps were down a bit in the last reported week. One week does not make a trend, but it may be that we are on the downside. Too late to save this winter, though I have seen worse.

  13. 2 Dolla Bill says:

    If you want you can meet me and Wayne Garcia at 24 hour fitness. I’ll whip you into shape! 🙂

  14. Low clouds have rolled in, taking away my sunny start to the day. Currently 39.6F

  15. 2 Dolla Bill says:

    The funny thing is you know that Rob is reading every post. So he might as well say something 🙂 You were spending like 5 hours a day posting so what are you going to do with all that free time?

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Not only is he reading every post. Their is a high probability that he will come back with another name. Leaving out the rob of course. Let’s see he was “wrath,atmospheric,gradient keeper”. It will be good to see him back no matter name he posts under.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      I wouldn’t blame him for staying away as long as there is no assurance that the trolls get banned. I don’t know why they don’t go somewhere else. There are lots of places on the net where you can spend all day bashing each other. I just don’t get it.
      Weather wise however. This el nino setup is really locked in now. No end in sight.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The trolls have disappeared haven’t they? I’m generally not going to post the nitty-gritty details of who gets moderated/banned or talked to via email. I’m comfortable that the changes I’ve made to the blog the past 2 days should improve things quite a bit.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Mark Nelsen I commend you. I hope the trolls are far far away.

    • Runrain says:

      (In…?). Yea!! I’m not a troll!

    • wwm says:

      I agree! I am very happy to see the garbage being cleaned up. A lot of good folks on here who want to discuss the weather, not drama.

      Thanks again to Mark and the many others who helped hold the clowns accountable.

      east wind has picked up a bit, wish it would last longer than a few days and actually bring in some colder air. Oh well, at least it was a nice day!

    • Gidrons says:

      Neither Mark nor anyone else can keep a troll from re-registering with a different IP address and email account. The only alternative is to moderate every single comment, which I’m sure I don’t want.

      As far as blogs go, this is far and away the most civilized and friendly that I’ve seen. If you want to see trolls at work, go to Foxsports and insult the Yankees.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Actually that’s not true with WordPress. Typepad did have that flaw where an IP address could be banned only AFTER it had posted something. So a shifting IP address couldn’t be stopped (remember NO SNOW and SOUTH WIND???)
      With WordPress any comment from a brand new IP address must be moderated once the first time it arrives. Then that IP address is free to post at will after that time unless I put it in “moderation”, requiring my action each time.

      Of course nothing would stop an obnoxious person from putting in one nice comment, then spending three hours putting crap on the blog while I’m busy doing something else. But EVENTUALLY I’d see it and lock up the new person. You just have to be patient and email me. Don’t lash out swearing and threatening the offender…that’s just as bad.

    • Carl in Cascade Park says:

      Thanks Mark! Awesome.

  16. WEATHERDAN says:

    Whereth go the “GRADIENT KEEPER”. Sooner or later thou will want to post. So why not now?

  17. WEATHERDAN says:

    29 days in a row and counting. That’s 29 mornings in a row without frost in Salem. Not a record yet but getting close. The record was set in 2006 when we also had a frostless January. Wouldn’t it be a real gas if we went the rest of this winter without a frost in Salem. Not likely but possible. It’s sunny here this morning. Just a few fog patches. Current gfs-meteogram shows some cooler weather in February. Thickness drops to around 532-538 and pretty much stays there for several days. Not low enough to give us any threat of valley snow but maybe snow down to 2-3k. So maybe some snow at the ski resorts.

    • Andrew Johnson says:

      It is quite possible that Salem will have a colder minimum for the month of May then they have in January!

  18. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    It was a very foggy drive home from work last night. The fog did keep the temps overnight and it only dropped to 40 overnight whereas areas out east were in the low to mid 30s.

    Sun is peaking through here now.

    This will go down as perhaps THE MOST BORING MONTH EVER! This includes summer months! No extreme temps, no extreme rainfall/dryness. No snow, thunderstorms, hail or anything!

  19. Mr Data says:

    From my stand-ppoint It is NOT frosty anywhere and I fail to see how it can be given the conditions.

    I am only at 40F which would translate to cold spots being in the mid-30s at BEST. 😮 😮 😮 😮

  20. 29.4° for a low this fine sunny morning!

  21. W7ENK says:

    Oh, it’s going to be an absolutely spectacular day! Sunny, not a cloud in the sky, well, not one to worry about anyway, just some whispy cirrus here and there, and 34.0 for a low – but the grass and rooftops are frosty. 🙂

  22. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    East wind is just starting to pick up here. Looks like the latest was -3.2 ttd-dls.

  23. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    I don’t think it actually froze here but we do have frost everywhere.

    • Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

      Some areas actually dipped down to 32 this morning, including Gresham. I had a little bit of ice on my windshield this morning at 35 degree air temp, but there’s no frost on the ground down this way.

    • Low here this morning was 32.2 with quite a heavy frost on everything. It’s now 34.8 and sunny!

  24. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Does anyone know a link to the WSI-WRF model?

  25. k5mitch says:

    39.9 F

    Before we move on; due to today’s events I should clarify that there are NO nude photos of me anywhere on the internet, so please don’t bother searching.

    I found one…

  26. Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

    Currently 36.5 with fog here in Molalla… hopefully this is short-lived… I wouldn’t mind seeing the sun again today or tomorrow.

    Only 1 or 2 possible mornings left for a frost this month. With the predicted east winds ramping up, PDX isn’t going to see one, but areas south of Canby still have a chance.

  27. Karl Bonner says:

    Where did that silly rumor about naked pictures come from? Sorry for asking but you don’t hear something like this every day on the blog.

  28. Richard (Derek's Dad) says:

    Derek wanted me to post this.

    “Well it rained like crazy down here last week. We had heavy rain Sunday night and especially Monday. Tuesday afternoon, at least where I was, it was even heavier than the previous days with lots of
    lightning nearby and street flooding. Then Wednesday it was also very wet and Thursday was windy with lots of lightning and some hail. Friday was a little bit more of the same, so an interesting stretch. It rained like crazy. One guy that lives near myself empied his rainguage Wednesday night. I think that it had 6 inches in it already. So that’s my fun update from not-so-sunny southern California.” Derek Hodges Chino Hills Ca

    So thats an update for you too. Thats too bad they always fight on the blog. Rob always
    comes back and he will again. How are you? How is work? Anything good at church? Well
    talk to you later,

    Love, Derek

  29. Emily Waldman says:

    Oden folks

  30. HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

    Yes,

    Again a blown forecast by myself and my penalty was another very wet ride home for the second time in a row. Warm and dry all day until it was time to ride, then the rain seemed to spread out between work and Hillsboro to add insult to injury.

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      I was out washing some outside windows and the back door today and wondered if I felt a little midst on my arms, but I thought, nah… it’s not supposed to rain today — is it? But that was as serious as our afternoon “rain showers” got down this way.

  31. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Hm, looks like this time the models won over the meteorogists. And to our surprise, the only source I recall mentioning showers from this morning was The Weather Channel. Learn something new everyday.

  32. surprise rain showers
    restful january day
    oh forecast blunders

  33. alohabb says:

    I am not sure about you guys, but I am more interested in seeing the forecast for the next few days and not Mark’s pressure gradient! (Sorry, had to do it!)

  34. Mr Data says:

    44.6F and hopes there is no fog tonite so it can at leat go down to the mid 30s despite the 41F dewpoint.

    Yeah right.

  35. Runrain says:

    One isolated, lonely shower creeping its way northward towards Happy Valley at this hour.

  36. Mr Data says:

    Don’t say that Mike……..please. 😮

  37. Fairly decent day down here, some nice sun breaks this afternoon. Currently 37.5F, looks like frost in the works for tomorrow morning (unless the fog machine kicks in).

  38. Stevengibson says:

    Just east of pendleton on hwy 30 looks like a nice strong cell according to the wunder map

  39. Stevengibson says:

    Dang only if there was a cold air mass over us an we had those snow showers 🙂

  40. Rich says:

    It poured in Beaverton (i work right next to Mark).
    Dry as a bone on Prune Hill in Camas (home)
    Pretty hard to predict that one Mark.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Yeah if you looked at the radar this afternoon, most of the cells probably had a diameter of like 6-8 miles. This happens a lot in the Spring time, often Portlanders in May say they can’t predict rain but most of the time there is showers like 5 miles south or north of Portland.

  41. W7ENK says:

    Mark, are you ABSOLUTELY certain about the lack of photos??? I’d hate to see you proved wrong, or in the buff at all, for that matter!!!

%d bloggers like this: