A Warm Month

This was a great day to get outside.  I actually took a bike ride midday under the swaying trees…a bit scary at times up in the Cascade foothills today with gusty downslope winds.  But with temperatures up near 60 degrees it felt like March.  It has been a very mild month.  I see Salem is running +6.8 degrees from average and Portland over 5 degrees so far.  And there’s no big change on the way.  No model shows a blast of cold air or snow to low elevations in the next 7+ days.  Do you realize neither Portland or Salem have even seen a frost this month so far?  Strange…I think it was 2006 when we went without a frost at PDX the whole month.  But as we know…a lot could change in the next 10 days.

In the short term, the east wind backed off this afternoon after a wave went through, but approaching low pressure system #3 this week should really tighten up the cross-Cascade gradient by midday tomorrow.  So I think it’ll be a windy and mild afternoon again on Wednesday.  Some rain may fall at some point tomorrow, but it won’t be much.  That deep low makes a very slow move up the Coast late tomorrow night and Thursday, negating any good chance for strong south wind in the Valley.  I’m sure it’ll turn windy at the beaches, but other than that this one could be a snoozer inland with no significant wind OR rain.  I really like the sub 980 low that moves into SE Oregon on Friday…you don’t see that very often!  Lots of snow in the Great Basin coming up…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

279 Responses to A Warm Month

  1. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Tornado Watch for parts of SE California and SW Arizona… Wierd stuff is all I have to say.

  2. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    Driving around I had the sunroof open this afternoon. Felt more like mid April than January.

    Pity it’s not, as with all the sun and -28 500mb temps, we might have cooked up some good showers today, but no way the sun’s strong enough in January.

  3. Mr Data says:

    Thanks Rob for the bit about the early 1940s.

    That must’ve been SOMETHING! 😮

    It’s amazing these Alarmist don’t look at all that.

    The artic passage must’ve melted because of all the pollution in the 30s causing pea soup fog days. 😉

  4. Mr Data says:

    It’s Partly Sunny now!

    Man Idon’t know WHEN the last time the sun came out like this.

    54F here for the high

    38F for the low today.

    0.00 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours.

  5. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Barometer 29.05″ and its a beautiful 55 degree afternoon with sunshine and low humidity.

    I can’t ever remember a weather pattern like this with such a broad surface low and yet very little precip and lots of sun breaks… This is bizarre el nino weather for sure. I love it. Early Spring ?

  6. Salemphil says:

    Beautiful day, cleaned the junk out of the gutters from the winds, raked the yard and I noticed the Japanese Plum Trees are beginning to bud out!

  7. dabears (Hillsboro-Tanasbourne) says:

    Anyone know what the winds are like up at Crown Point today? I’ve never been up there before and my friend and I are thinking about taking a little drive.

  8. If this weather keeps up, I’ll have to mow the grass!

  9. JohnD says:

    In all my years of being a Western Oregonian, I can honestly say that I can NEVER remember a milder January start to finish than the one that we are having this year. Not a single freezing temperature? Are you kidding me? I am sure that there have been other statistical mild ones but this has got to come close to taking the cake!

  10. Steve Pierce (Vancouver, WA.) says:


    Here is a little “AMS CHALLENGE” for you all!

    The AMS is challenging folks to forward this information (below) to at least 5 other people (via facebook / twitter / e-mail lists, etc…) for those who might be interested in joining our awesome chapter of the AMS. We want to pack the house out Saturday and add a few more folks to our chapter’s membership. Please cut and past the information below.


    This is going to be a great meeting, so please spread the word! We are looking to pack the place out (75 people) so please bring a weather friend along with you. Great pizza, great beverages, good meeting. All public / all ages welcome!

    When: SATURDAY, JANUARY 23rd 2-4pm!
    Where: STARK STREET PIZZA – 9234 SE Stark Street
    Topic: How to interpret weather charts and model soundings, presented by AMS councilor Steve Pierce

    This will be a great opportunity for beginning/amateur weather enthusiasts to learn about how to interpret weather charts and model soundings (great for forecasting potential snow events). We hope you can come.

    Check for updates at our website: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/index.html

    Oregon AMS

  11. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett,WA says:

    I will say there is one thing interesting about this pattern.

    Looks like once these systems pass through most of the energy from them is “injecting” back into the flow. I bet you a couple of these storms have hit California twice…three times?? 🙂

  12. Definitely a very pleasant day 🙂

    54.5F…light east wind…Sun poking thru at times.

  13. dabears (Hillsboro-Tanasbourne) says:

    Wow, what a beautiful day! I never thought I’d be so happy to see sunshine.

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Not our location, but check out the severe bow/echo ‘S’ signature south of Jacksonville, Florida.


    Base Velocities

    Storm Relative Velocities

    One tornado already reported. When you see this type of characteristic on Storm Relative Velocities it’s serious business.

  15. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    There wasn’t vigorous enough precip to cause any type of downdrafts or erratic mixing… The moisture at the time was very weak just sprinkles or light rain and not convective in nature at all. You don’t get odd sudden easterly wind bursts, then at PDX the same time south winds with no southerly gradient… This wasn’t something common. Unless it was some very tiny mesoscale phenomenon that models would never see. My only explanation is mountain wave due to all of the reports at the same time all east of I-205.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh well it’s fun to discuss weird weather phenomenons such as that.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      2? No there were at least 6 or 7 some via e-mail to me also.

    • umpire says:

      Rob, I’m not sure when it occurred, but some sudden gusts woke me up last night – I live near NE 70th and Sandy – have skylights upstairs, and I could see the trees bending and moving pretty significantly. Figured it might have been that low nearing the coast directly west of us. However, didn’t think to look at the clock, and fell asleep again quickly. After this winter of frequent east winds, a few gusts won’t keep me awake!

    • Annie in Vancouver ~330 ft. says:

      Rob – I was lettiing the dog out around that time and had some very sudden large gusts. They were loud and intense! I made the dog hurry up! 🙂

  16. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    So what I gather from reading everyone’s report these sudden winds all occurred around this same time frame, were definitely east of I-205, and the wind behavior was unusual. I really do not believe it was mixing alone. Like I said it was one of the strangest weather occurrences I can remember.

    What would explain PDX reporting a S wind around the same time? With no PDX-EUG southerly gradient in fact it was 1mb northerly and no other locations reporting south wind. Spooky ….. Twilight zone type stuff and I’m NOT talking about this stupid vampire crap.

    • Tyler says:

      That reminds me I need to go see “New Moon”!!!!

    • I don’t know… Perhaps there was a rather deep low to the NW?

    • No wind excitement here. Temp warmed up about 10° between 1:30am and 6:00am this morning.

      Currently 55.1° under partly cloudy skies.

    • gggcorno says:

      Rob, are the PDX-EUG gradients measured only for surface pressure differences, or are they composite figures? For example, how would a PDX-EUG pressure difference at 850 (or 500) mb show up? Or would a PDX-EUG gradient between 850 and 950 mb make sense? Just trying to understand the complexities of pressure differences in a 3D atmosphere. Maybe if I can make it to the gathering Saturday, this will become a bit clearer to me.

      When I was in grade school and I saw fronts on a weather map, everything was nice and two dimensional. It seemed so simple that way! 🙂

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Yes it’s a measure of pressure at the surface between Portland and Eugene.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Jeez ….. over 4,000 without power all due to 4 vehicle accidents

  18. Mr Data says:

    If people are ignoring me because I got mad last month then please don’t hold any grudges because I have gotten past that stage and am now more mature after seeking *help* as you put it.

    I once held grudges against you guys and all grudges do is waste time & energy so if you all want to waste time % energy holding grudges which creates GLOBAL WARMING then be my guest. 😉

    Enjoy sending those grudges to Al Gore so he can power up his big mansion with all those expensive lights.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I’m not ignoring you.

      Did you know back during the early 1940’s the arctic passage was ice-free? Pics and reports of submarines surfacing to an ice free surface.

  19. Cross country gradient still hanging in there:

    KSEA-KJFK: -24mb

  20. Mr Data says:

    ONE more thing:

    The people who screamed Ice Age did NOT know that bout every 500 years on average we have a semi-dramatic warm-cold phase in which it peaked in the late-90s.

    My Dad didn’t once believe the ice age was coming because he knew about the 500 year cycle so he didn’t buy the 70s scare.

    I can’t find my yes/no smiley so it maeks me feel. http://www.mysmiley.net/freesmiley.php?smiley=mad/mad0010.gif

  21. Mr Data says:

    http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=60571000001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Worldwide Cold Not Seen since ’70s Ice Age Scare

    We are the same as in the 70s when the Global Warming Alarmist were screaming Ice Age on the headlines becasue in those days they actualy LOOKED at the data.

    This video gives you a somewhat detailed version comparing this cold snap and the one in January 1-10 1970 that a good portion of the West Coast MUCH BELOW average. 😮

    So basically Global Warming is causing Global Freezing and we have to kiss the goverments donkeys.

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Wondering where the mass of clouds/pineapples now curling over Hawaii is headed?

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