Windy Sunday Night?

Not much time left to discuss, but I too did notice the 00z GFS and 00z GEM (Canadian) both show a very deep low moving right up the Oregon Coastline on Sunday night.  The 00z WRF-GFS shows a significant windstorm on the central/north Coast.  I think I counted 24 millibars from UIL to OTH around midnight…and it’s a fast mover too.  Great ingredients for a windstorm out there.  However, details in the 250mph jet approaching the Western USA Sunday and Monday are most definitely changing from model run to model run.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if future runs back off.

The 00z ECMWF and 00z NAM did not have such a deep low close to the coastline, but it’s definitely a development to watch.  It appears that as we go through the rest of the week the lows stay farther south, taking most of the rain and all of the wind with them.  In fact east wind is far more likely the rest of next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

97 Responses to Windy Sunday Night?

  1. mahzeltoffee says:

    It seems the winds have subsided in the valley. Betcha it’s blowin’ big time on the beach. I recall one wind storm was so windy one of our chickens laid the same egg 3 times. Having laid an egg with that bad yolk, uh, joke, I’ll make like a tree and leave. Uh, oh, gettin’ windy again. Maybe I’ll shut off the pc in case we lose the power. How many days until summer any how?

  2. flurball says:

    Have not seen a storm trail like this so far south in a long time. Maybe several years ago when we lost all those bouyies in the Pacific? Candian border almost to the Equator? Then again, it wasn’t that long ago?

  3. Yevgeniy aka Yev says:

    THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO STORM
    TRACK…AS WELL AS STRENGTH…FOR THE SUN NIGHT SYSTEM. WHILE THIS
    MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN SOLUTION…CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
    HIGH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE COAST. VALID
    06Z MON…THE CURRENT 00Z NAM HAS A 967MB SFC LOW DUE WEST OF
    TILLAMOOK AT ABOUT 130W AND THEN HOLDS IT OFFSHORE…KEEPING THE
    STRONGEST PRES GRADIENTS OUT OVER THE WATERS. DESPITE SHOWING A WIDE
    SWATH OF 45-50KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEPICTED OVER THE MARINE
    ZONES…THIS WOULD PROBABLY TRANSLATE INTO GALES OR STORM FORCE WINDS
    IN THE COASTAL WATERS…AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG THE
    BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD…THE CURRENT 00Z GFS
    HAS A 981MB SURFACE LOW DUE WEST OF LINCOLN CITY BUT HAS THE LOW
    ABOUT 150NM CLOSER TO SHORE. FURTHERMORE…THE GFS TAKES THIS LOW
    INTO THE WESTERN WASHINGTON COAST. DESPITE BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
    WEAKER…THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
    COAST…AS WELL AS HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE
    INTERIOR. GUSTS TO 50MPH INLAND WOULD NOT BE HARD TO GET FROM THAT
    TRACK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT IS
    FAR ENOUGH OUT AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. DALTON

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Latest GFS run has the storm projected at 978mb, when last night’s 00Z run had this storm projected at 959mb just off the coast. Each run does show a good storm train, but with weakening centers… I really hope this pans out.

    • W7ENK says:

      I guess I’d better get by butt down off Mt. Hood early on Sunday then, huh? I’m already not thrilled about snowshoeing 3+ miles in the rain, the last thing I need is strong winds along with! While I’m one to appreciate a good windstorm, I’d rather watch it from my living room, not out in the woods dodging falling trees.

      What time would these winds start kicking up in the Northern Willamette Valley (specifically, Mt. Hood)? If I get back to the car and on the road heading home by 4, is that enough time, or should we aim more for Noon?

      Dave Salesky just said “windstorm” on KATU’s teaser, BTW.

  5. With the back edge of the main band of precip closing in, not sure if I will make the magic inch mark in rainfall.

    47.1F…0.91″ rain

  6. Karl Bonner says:

    I can’t decide whether I would prefer the storm track to aim at the northern half of California or the southern half. Right now I’m leaning towards north because Norcal’s ecosystem is better equipped to tolerate heavy rain AND we have a much better chance of getting some windstorms in Oregon if this is the case. Also, if the storm track dips too far south we’d likely end up in another inversion pattern with cold valleys and a roaring east wind. No fun if you have to stay in the valleys, but it might be nice if you have plans to do some mountain astronomy (Mars is very close to opposition now!)

    On the other hand, as we move into February I’d like for the jet stream to plunge as far south as possible so that we get a strong HP over us when the sun is actually strong enough to warm us up. I can see from one of the previous post’s comment section that Mark is also eagerly hoping for a bunch of sunny 60-ish days in late February and early March. Apparently there was one year back in the 1960s when Eugene got four or five consecutive sunny days around 65 degrees under a late February ridge, and during the spring teaser in Feb. 2005 parts of the central Valley actually hit the high 60s!

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