Poor California…

I just saw this on the HPC website, referencing the very stormy and wet period coming up beginning late this weekend down south:

“THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR RIVAL THE JAN/FEB 1998 EL NINO EVENT IN CENTRAL CA AND THE JAN 1995 TIME FRAME FOR SOCAL. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A MULTIDAY PERIOD WITH 10-20 INCH MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS WITH EVEN HIGHER OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SIERRA MOUNTAIN SNOWS MAY BE IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE. AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO SRN CA WHERE SIMILAR RAINFALL NUMBERS MAY OVER ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH 20 INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVENT CONTINUING PAST OUR 7 DAY RANGE YIELDING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. VERY HVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING/MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AZ APPEARS IN STORE THURS INTO SAT. SEE CPC THREATS ANALYSIS AND LOCAL NWS OFFICE STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES AND EVENTUALLY WARNINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH PAC RECON REQUESTED.”

I think we know what the big weather news story will be by the middle of next week! They have been in a long-term drought down there for years and could use a good soaking, but this probably isn’t quite what they would like to see.

50 Responses to Poor California…

  1. Adam in SE says:

    I just finished reading John McPhee’s “The Control of Nature,” which details exactly what happens when the San Gabriel Mountains north of L.A. get a whole lot of rain all at once.

  2. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Sun night looks like potential low end HWW for central and south W Valley…if mm5 WRF is right…with surface winds of 25-35 knots…if Sun night does not pan out then we probably will not see any strong winds inland during the coming week.

    Wednesday night, Thursday morning on central CA coast looks impressive…963mb low off Pt Arena….a bit anomalous shall I say. Arnold will have to say this is no girly man’s storm for Kaleeforneea. Can you say photo op…Arnold in a yellow raincoat and pants helping put sandbags on some riverbank in southern Cal…

    • Yevgeniy aka Yev says:

      VERIFY,VERIFY,VERIFY
      paul what about gusts?

    • PaulB/Eugene says:

      max SSW winds at about 1000 foot elevation about 50-55 knots…so I guess if ideally those winds mix down to the surface you would have gusts 57-63mph…but 50-55mph would be fudging toward a more likely scenario

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Sounds about right to me. However Sunday night you see the very tight gradient under the low is not far at all from sweeping into the Willamette Valley. Would be PDX-EUG 12mb+ ! Sooo we need to watch things. Mark showed the jet at 250mph! SOooo plenty of energy for sudden cyclogensis/bombing of lows.

  3. 0z GFS shows 2.01″ of precip ending hour 180. Let’s see if that changes…

  4. pgiorgio says:

    Anyone looking for snow in the next 1 to 2 weeks I really think this pattern is going to make it very unlikely. It will be hard to get a cold air source with such a strong jet going into California and nothing really to drive cold air from the North southward all the way to WA/OR. This is probably good news for California as long as the pattern shifts after a week or so.

  5. Certainly a LOT of possibilities!

    Including this one off the coast of N. CAL..

  6. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I just have a feeling models are going to slowly start backing off on the incoming systems. They will be weaker than shown now. This is just based off the last several weeks of model runs…

  7. Yevgeniy aka Yev says:

    this looks nice for a windstorm here in the valleys, of course details still have to be figured out somewhat, but as of now looks good to me

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    No sooner I posted that and a new SWS has just been issued.

    Here’s an excerpt from it.
    …THIS WEEKEND MARKS A SHIFT TO AN EXTENDED WINDY AND WET PERIOD…

    A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND RESIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AROUND THIS LOW…SENDING THEM TOWARD THE WEST COAST. MANY OF THE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK.

    THE STRONGEST SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POTENTIALLY BRINGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH TO THE COAST. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM…THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

    • pgiorgio says:

      somewhat promising, nice post

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Nah I don’t know. Models have consistently shown a very fast jet 180+kts to our south with fast moving lows darting up from the Southwest or almost due south and inside 130 W. PRIME situation for a big wind storm as cyclogensis occurs rapidly in the sweet spot area. I’m unsure of any wind storm, but we have to watch things carefully.

    • Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

      I agree Rob, they are coming inside 130W in the right spots — but the questions will be how deep they actually get, and whether or not they ever come ashore in the right spot north of PDX, instead of staying offshore or dissipating as they move over Vancouver Isl.

    • Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

      Hmmm… I guess that staying offshore isn’t necessarily all bad if high wind is what you want… according to Wolf Read:

      Note that the Columbus Days storm was this type of storm — but was obviously much stronger than what we are seeing on the models for Sunday.

  9. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Well 00z WRF seems to have turned a bit stormier…..

    So far this is the only potentially gusty/strong time I see for south winds.

    30-35kt sustained Sunday 10:00 PM

    The run hasn’t finished yet though.

  10. Jethro (Molalla ~320') says:

    Is that a bullseye I see on LA?

    Yeah, it aint’ gonna be pretty down there about a week from now.

  11. pdxgeol says:

    I’m heading to Mammoth. 10 to 12 feet of fresh Sierra Cement by the end of next week…sweet.

  12. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Hopefully minimal mudslide damage in California from the upcoming rains! Vegetation there in large doesn’t absorb the rain as fast as it does here (and we have had some major mudslides).

    • pdxgeol says:

      It’s even less absorbent when it’s been burned off. They need to be having sandbag parties below those burnt canyons this weekend!

    • HIO Phil (Punxsutawney) elevation 189' says:

      Been there, done that. Just about destroyed my parents car I was driving at the time. I hope it’s not too bad for them down there, but the snow in the mountains will benefit the state immensly this summer.

      It would be interesting to be in Tahoe or at Mammoth this week. Might see 20′ of snow in a week.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      Speaking of snow we could really use some here in the mountains! If next summer is as hot as last water restrictions would not be an impossibility. This area depends on the snow for the summer water supply. At this rate Mt. Hood will be bare by the end of July.

  13. Yevgeniy aka Yev says:

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_slp+///3
    HOUR 78!!!
    you are kidding me that no one is talking about this right?

  14. Yevgeniy aka Yev says:

    00z is marvelous so far to me

  15. pgiorgio says:

    Let me clarify from the last blog post that “fluke” was a poorly chosen word to describe December. All I’m really trying to say is that if you look at average temperatures for a month in any given winter there should probably be an asterisk next to December 2009. The reason I think this is because we often look at averages for the purpose of historical trends. Perhaps we should always group winter years by whether they were neutral, El Nino, or La Nina and take statistical trend data from that. It may take 3 times as long to find a scientific trend of colder/warmer temps, wet/dry conditions, and so on but I really think its more accurate to do this rather than grouping a 5 or 10 year period together and suggesting there may be a new trend.

    If in 2015 we were looking at Decembers in the past 10 years in particular we may not be thinking about the El nino Dec of 2009 which was abnormal for a December in El nino conditions. During this 10 year frame of data we might think Decembers are getting colder but really it was just odds that one of the 7+ or so El nino Dec’s that have been present in the past 25 years we were finally due to have an Arctic Blast and that combined with an inversion and other factors lead to a colder period of 10 years (in theory for now) from 2005-2015 when compared to the 10 year frame of 1995-2005. That one December may be enough to keep the 10 year period average colder than the previous 10 year period ave. We know that lack of sunspots and other things could be changing our winters temporarily as well.

    My one track mind of using statistics to predict trends and not explaining a little more of what I meant may have caused a misunderstanding. Sorry for that.

  16. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Wow, for such exciting outlook for next week’s weather, sure is dead on the blog. 🙂

  17. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Another warm day today, almost t-shirt weather.

    Poor CA… Soon that will be us starting Tue/Wed (hopefully). Pounding rains w/ 65+ mph winds 🙂

    Aaahhh, good stuff.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Disclaimer: “I do not AT ALL want to see destruction, only the force of our beauty Mother Nature!”

  18. You know, even if the rest of winter is pretty boring, we are still inching closer to spring thunderstorms!

  19. Kenneth says:

    Thanks Mark! You rock.

  20. Soul Crushed says:

    Mark, I think now would be the perfect time for a 10 day vacation. Just post a 10 day forecast of… Cloudy with a chance of rain. Breezy. H 52-57 L 43-48..right next to the Gone Fishing sign.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m with you Soul, going sturgeon fishing tomorrow, hope the weather doesn’t deteriorate too soon.

  21. MrData says:

    Darn.

    Wishcast Weather Report:

    72.9F here and mostly sunny with light south winds and a 59F dewpoint brining in the ‘super muggy’ air.

    According to the Wishcast the latest models the *Heatlow* is now directly overhead and the ULL is spinning off of of the border between CA/OR.

    Brookings is now having lightning and heavy rain with temps dropping from 73F to 61F in less then 5 mins.

    Edit: Winds now gusting to 39mph there. 😉

    Humbolt County has 20,000 customers without power as a result of frequent CG lightning for the last hour. 😮

    ………………now excuse me as we head back to our regulary scheduled program known as *Reality Check*

    52F and overcast.

  22. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    First!!!

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