January 14, 2010
Not much time left to discuss, but I too did notice the 00z GFS and 00z GEM (Canadian) both show a very deep low moving right up the Oregon Coastline on Sunday night. The 00z WRF-GFS shows a significant windstorm on the central/north Coast. I think I counted 24 millibars from UIL to OTH around midnight…and it’s a fast mover too. Great ingredients for a windstorm out there. However, details in the 250mph jet approaching the Western USA Sunday and Monday are most definitely changing from model run to model run. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if future runs back off.
The 00z ECMWF and 00z NAM did not have such a deep low close to the coastline, but it’s definitely a development to watch. It appears that as we go through the rest of the week the lows stay farther south, taking most of the rain and all of the wind with them. In fact east wind is far more likely the rest of next week.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
January 14, 2010
I just saw this on the HPC website, referencing the very stormy and wet period coming up beginning late this weekend down south:
“THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR RIVAL THE JAN/FEB 1998 EL NINO EVENT IN CENTRAL CA AND THE JAN 1995 TIME FRAME FOR SOCAL. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A MULTIDAY PERIOD WITH 10-20 INCH MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS WITH EVEN HIGHER OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SIERRA MOUNTAIN SNOWS MAY BE IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE. AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO SRN CA WHERE SIMILAR RAINFALL NUMBERS MAY OVER ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH 20 INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVENT CONTINUING PAST OUR 7 DAY RANGE YIELDING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. VERY HVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING/MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AZ APPEARS IN STORE THURS INTO SAT. SEE CPC THREATS ANALYSIS AND LOCAL NWS OFFICE STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES AND EVENTUALLY WARNINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH PAC RECON REQUESTED.”
I think we know what the big weather news story will be by the middle of next week! They have been in a long-term drought down there for years and could use a good soaking, but this probably isn’t quite what they would like to see.