Rough Evening

Apparently I infected the weather center PC with virus or malware this evening…totally screwed up. Then Viagra ads started popping up as windows opened…nice. We DO have a nice little change in the forecast this evening. It’s not exactly a powerful storm, but a nice low pressure center moves north through our offshore waters tonight and tomorrow morning it arrives in Western Washington. There is a real nice pressure gradient straight up the Valley by late morning tomorrow. We haven’t seen a south wind gust over 30 mph at PDX since just before Thanksgiving! Hopefully I read the climate data correctly, but it shows how we’ve been missing good westerly flow for quite awhile. Anyway, a gradient of 9 to 12 millibars should produce gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Nothing too exciting, but we’ll take what we can get.

Beyond that it’s pretty quiet Thursday through Sunday. We get “leftover” rain Sunday as a system runs into California. They will really be under the gun next week. I see the 00z GFS seems slightly farther north with deep lows approaching the coastline next week. Something to keep a close eye on. That’s it; out of time for this evening.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

35 Responses to Rough Evening

  1. Silverton500 says:

    Hey Mark – I’ll fix your computer (I’m a professional) in exchange for a tour of the weather office! 😉
    A few blinking lights down here in Salem.

  2. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    Peak gust of 29 mph so far south of Canby.

  3. J-Kelso says:

    South wind just picked up here.

  4. Punxsutawney (aka HIO Phil at work by Sunset High) ~280' says:

    37 mph gust just now at my station in Hillsboro

  5. In Tigard for work and wind is actually racheting up quite nicely. It was really quiet in Beaverton when I left for work, but breezy here. Just had a gust of wind I could hear outside.

    Hoping to get some of Sandi’s thunder!

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      We’ve only had two rumbles so far. One close by and one in the distance.

      Mark Nelsen tweet this morning:
      Strong south wind gusts to 40 mph arrive by 11am here in the Metro Area. Gusts of 40-50 this hour in central/south valley spreading north.

  6. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Big gust of wind and thunder heard just a few minutes ago.

  7. Kenneth says:

    Looking at 00Z run and it looks like junk. Keeps flip flopping every 12hr run

  8. Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

    12z WRF-GFS keeps the low just offshore as it runs north into Vancouver Island — not good if high wind is what you’re looking for. I think 30-35 mph seems reasonable for peak gusts.

    • Jethro (Canby ~187') says:

      Gust to 22mph here all of a sudden. I see McNary Field in Salem had a gust to 40 mph. Seems odd that the coast really isn’t seeing higher winds from this yet.

    • Kenneth says:

      I can verify the 40mph gust. Im in NE salem. Lights keep flickering.

    • Kenneth says:

      Low appears to coming ashore soon just north of Astoria. Should be interesting in the Valley today. How long until NWS post wind warnings and advisories?

    • Kenneth says:

      Mcnary just posted 43mph gust

    • PaulO says:

      Seeing rapid pressure rises S. OR coast – Cape Arago +.18 – wind picking up 40+ south/mid valley with pressure rises beginning but nothing big yet. Maybe some potential for a quick breeze to hit? Where’s Rob?

  9. Kenneth says:

    Sustained 20_25 Gusting 30 in Salem Really Ramping up Quick

  10. k5mitch says:

    it is a boring 46.9 F
    1.7 mph from the SE

  11. WeatherConfused says:

    Ok, last November we had a similar set up for wind, and all that could be talked about on tv was the WIND STORM 09′. They put out warnings and watches and darn near scared the public into Columbus Day panic. Now today we see very similar patterns,and nobody(except our best weather forecaster Mark!) is saying anything at all! Anytime we have a south wind predicted my senses get raised. How come all other stations are just poo-pooing this wind? With all the rain and soaked ground, 30-40mph wind gusts could cause big trouble!

  12. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Posting this again…

    Wind Storm ALERT!!!!

    I like this…. Yes there is a double barrel structure, but it appears the southern lobe/low will swing NE then NE right along the Coast in optimal track which could also allow for the tight gradient packing to the immediate south of its circulation to line up right over the Willamette Valley.

    In fact I count would could be a 12-15mb PDX-EUG gradient should that occur. Um I don’t need to tell anyone how potentially destructive this would be. That would be the all-time record max PDX-EUG gradient! It looks to be a quick mover which is helpful. We need to keep a close eye on this.

    I suppose if it did so G 70mph or so. Usually with a double barrel low you end up with low pressure kind of spread out all over from the north to south which in turn doesn’t allow for a steep pressure gradient to develop, but it appears the northern lobe is far enough away that the pressure gradient develops as pressure is higher over northern California and southern Oregon. If we see similar to this on the models over the coming days we can be concerned somewhat.

    The entire run is chunk full of possibilities with quick moving lows darting towards us from the southwest.

    • pgiorgio says:

      nice alert

    • W7ENK says:

      I must say, something along these lines at least ONCE this winter would be nice… I was under the impression that big Pacific lows with strong Southerly winds would be the big story for this winter… especially considering ocean temps were unusually warm at the end of summer/beginning of fall off the Oregon Coast??? I thought (hoped) that would help contribute to a strengthening/deepening of those lows, similar to how hurricanes gain steam as they move over warmer (gulf) waters… but alas, pretty much NOTHING of signifigance has happened, except for that one (really) cold snap before Christmas, and two inches of snow just after. Granted, the 101 mph winds at Crown Point were a thrill!

      Just one memorable windstorm in the Portland area this season will save me the trouble of explaining to my friends and family that I was wrong! 🙂

      I’ll be waiting…

    • Eternal Yamcha (SE Milwaukie) says:

      ….I thought we hit 50 mph here in the valley in early-December or something like that. Pretty sure we had a half-decent storm roll through, just rolled through later at night.

      I would like to have another one… But 50 mph winds don’t sound so awesomely intense since I went to Crown Point. Admittedly, though, I’d still prefer the 50 mph southerly winds because they’re warm.

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      That windstorm was really spotty… Many areas came close to 50 but most report max gusts in the middle to low 40’s. Many people only experienced gusts in the upper 30’s.

      It was a hit & miss wind storm.

  13. PaulB/Eugene says:

    The extended WRF does look interesting….blustery?. Lots of isobars on that 180h map. One thing is for certain….we are more likely to have a HWW than a WSW in the next two weeks. Keep us posted on the gradients Rob. If another Columbus Day Storm ever decides to pay a visit, I will climb up Spencer Butte (2000′ hill south of Eugene) and measure the winds up there and file a report on this blog

  14. Agree Mark, we need something in the “south wind” dept…Let’s hope the upcoming model runs continue with the northward trend of approaching low’s…


  15. 2 Dolla Bill says:

    Someone made a comment how Mark is always busy yesterday. It really is amazing how little time you have when you work 10-12 hours a day 5-6 days a week. You guys that think 9-5 is a full day have no clue. Then throw in going to the gym.

  16. 2 Dolla Bill says:

    Guess not. 😉 After back to back 14 hour days, it’s time for a nap. Maybe we will see some low elevation snow next weekend?

  17. 2 Dolla Bill says:

    1st eh?

  18. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    3rd? nice update, Mark.

  19. PaulB/Eugene says:


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