A Close Call Tonight!

The title refers to the cold and dry air pouring through the Gorge tonight.  Models had forecast this pretty well.  Remember about 5 days ago when the GFS showed a massive surge of arctic air through the Gorge tonight? (Pic is in an earlier post).  Well, it’s a nice blast of cold/dry air tonight, but imagine what we WOULD have seen!  For now I see gusts heading near 40 mph at Troutdale and 45-50 mph at Rooster Rock.  Snow is falliing heavily in the Gorge and Corbett is down to 33.  Just about all of the Metro area is down into the upper 30s as well.  It’s a cold rain!  We should have just about bottomed out on the falling temps.  Maybe another 2-3 degrees maximum before the east wind backs off maybe 6 hours from now.  That does allow freezing rain to develop into the hills of Gresham, Corbett, and above Camas/Washougal the next few hours.  Hope my pathetic little Prius (good mileage but useless in snow/ice) can take me home before the road ices up.  Usually the 4Runner is the snow vehicle, but, well, I thought it would be slightly warmer this evening.  Nice forecast wasn’t it?

Not much else to talk about in the forecast because it’s just very mild and wet the next 3 days.  A ton of very wet snow on the mountain tonight and tomorrow, but quite a bit of that may get washed away Wednesday-Friday as temps rise.  Enjoy the fresh stuff tomorrow because I think snow conditions will go downhill as we head towards teh “schools out” week next week. 

There is some disagreement about how much the rain shuts off this weekend and early next week.  The ECMWF is quite a bit drier than the GFS.  I’m leaning a bit more toward the ECWMF for now.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

119 Responses to A Close Call Tonight!

  1. flurball says:

    Last Canadian run also in line with the Euro

  2. Battle Ground Brian says:

    I fear that my prediction last fall is going to be correct..No measurable snow this winter at Portland Airport. 😦

  3. Matthew says:

    18z gfs sucks through 336 hours. SUCKS. Rain and 50’s with breaks more or less. Dec if this is right should not have snow…May change, but only if a ridge can form over the Pacific and push the arctic air, which is centered in the middle of the nation westward. That is possible, but this is not a good sign.

  4. Eric says:

    Great report, keep up the excellent work!

    http://www.weather-channel.org

  5. Ron says:

    Boz was fun but he wasn’t a met was he? Thought he was only a celebrity. Correct me if I am wrong but as far as detailed forecasting, don’t think he qualifies.

  6. Battle Ground Brian says:

    24-Hour Rainfall Totals Ending at 4pm for Clark Co.

    12-15-2009

    See Link Below:

  7. storm says:

    so a white chrismes again thats kool so if it holds how much snow we talking and how cold?. cold as the last out brake?.

  8. pgiorgio says:

    Quick little question for those who wish to participate or wont be offended. Back in the 90’s for those of us who were in the P’town area, who would you vote the best overall meteorologist/weatherperson on t.v. Here is a list of a few and I’m going to exclude Mark because he’s the best obv. Feel free to name someone if they’re not on the list.
    David Apple, Jim Bosley, Rhonda Shelby, Matt Zaffino, Jim Little, Pete Parsons, Dave Selesky, Jack Cappell

  9. Battle Ground Brian says:

    Check this out, its 10 at Helena Airport which sits in a bowl with high mountains all around it..

    Temps are in the 40’s in the surrounding area on all sides of this town, but the chinook winds have not quite reached the valley floor there making for one tiny island of 10 degree air right near the airport.

    Western Montana Mesowest Map:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=tfx

    • Christiana in Forest Grove says:

      Brian–Thanks that is pretty cool.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I like the 35 at Cut Bank and -2 just down the road.

    • pgiorgio says:

      Good stuff, we are not the only ones with the cool microclimate where just a few miles can make a huge difference

    • Battle Ground Brian says:

      Guinness Book of World Records:

      Browning Mt, west of Cutbank, rose 100 degrees in 24 hours. That is a still the world record.

      I have been to that town, 1500 people and 99% of them are indians at it is on a reservation.

      July 2000 I went there on a road trip. It was cool…

    • gidrons says:

      A friend of mine from Montana told me a story which I doubted til now…

      There was a foot of packed snow on the roads when a chinook wind came and turned it to slush. Cars parked on the street sank into the slush. Then another arctic front came in and froze the cars in place…and that’s when the fun started

  10. Boydo3 500' N Albany says:

    Could it be that the GFS wants to bring back the cold for Christmas or is it that programmer from the PNW just wishing for a white one and manipulating the 1’s and 0’s being fed into the supercomputer?

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