Dry?

Not a real wordy title is it?  I see the 12z WRF-GFS and now the 12z ECMWF are totally dry Saturday and Sunday over Northwest Oregon.  GFS has some very light precip.  Now you can all discuss that today.

5pm Update:  The 18z GFS has no significant precipitation now until Monday night!  By the way, I see the 12z 850mb temp at PDX was -12.  Finally, looks like models did relatively well with the cold airmass, both upper levels and lower levels.  It’s really too bad we didn’t get snow cover on the ground.  I’m confident we would have seen some below zero temps westside.

10pm Update:  I’m going to stick with our dry forecast for Saturday.  00z GFS went out on it’s own allowing moisture to surge up into here Saturday.  It seems to be flipping around like a salmon dry-docked.  The new 00z ECMWF has no precipitation until Monday when a strong system comes up from the southwest.  Almost exactly the same as it’s 12z run.  If so, we’d get a brief period of freezing rain at best near the Gorge only.  Or we could just gradually warm up over the weekend and get nothing.  It’s safest not to touch the forecast at this point.

Well, it’s getting REALLY cold in areas out of the wind.  Gorge gradient is hanging on, so areas right near the mouth of the Gorge will probably stay right around 20.  Everyone else is going to be somewhere between 5 & 15 degrees tonight!  Some spots will be colder, others stay about the same.  Some plants are going to be dead next spring!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

626 Responses to Dry?

  1. cliff from sandy says:

    by the way, we must have a temperature inversion going on here……20 for a low in sandy, 11 in estacada, and around 0 up at govy camp…..

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