Posting from Home

I just went through the most horrific experience a weather geek could suffer on a night like tonight.  The DSL service at home slowed to a total crawl from 8:30pm to right after 10.  By that I mean it was agony to even look at ONE GFS image.  Seriously, it was slower than the old dialup.  I actually gave up about 9:00pm; knowing that all the other weather folks had seen new model information but I couldn’t even though I had nothing else to do!  Apparently the line down my road is the old copper variety which means the more people on this line get online, the slower it gets.  So WHO on my road was watching Netflix on downloading movies tonight???  Ughhh!  Suddenly at 10:15pm it sped up to a reasonable speed, so I’ve analyzed all the latest info in the last 15 minutes.  By the way, we had to switch schedules around and I worked the early shows due to some co-worker’s flying around the USA.  That’s why I’m home.  I’m not fired…at least for now.

1.  The cold snap is most definitely still on, although if we model ride a bit one could say it’s not quite as cold in the last two runs of the GFS.  ECMWF at 12z came in colder and much more like the GFS.  Strong and very cold offshore flow ramps up Saturday night and Sunday.  Coldest day should be Monday.  I dropped the 7 Day highs a couple notches due to the increasing agreement between models.  I see others are beginning to follow…

2. Perfect forecast today with increasing easterly gradients (almost 6mb. now PDX-DLS) and a BIG drop in dewpoints everywhere.  Dry air has surged south out of Canada and into the Pacific Northwest.  No fog or clouds in sight the next few days.  If you stay calm at your home, you might see 22-27 degrees the next few nights.  Maybe an 18-20 in Vernonia?

3. 00z NAM is the only model spinning up some moisture Saturday morning for now…hope it stays that way.

4. Will there be some sort of big transition event the middle of next week?  Maybe.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

430 Responses to Posting from Home

  1. Tetra says:

    Mark Nelson was once on Koin!? 😮

  2. JamOC says:

    Is it seriously snowing in the backgroud?

  3. stevied (North Portland) says:

    new post by Mark

  4. muxpux says:

    wendy, i mowed today as well, but longview lost the frost around 10am or so, lol.

    silverlake itself isnt up very high, are you off in the boonies or what?

  5. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Hey, there are snow flurries on my weather blog page. Is that new??

  6. Eugene in Vancouver says:

    I see that Rod Hill is working for KGW now.

    • Tom (NE Portland) says:

      Yep, he’ll be filling in for Zaffino tomorrow night…but his usual shift will be on weekend evenings. Great to see him back on the air!

  7. Matthew says:

    I still really doubt that we get to 1998 or 2004 levels with this event. I believe the 850mb temps were at least -16 to -20c. Evenso the gfs is showing -14c into Portland Monday,,,I expect it to be at least 4c warmer than what the models show. Also you need to watch the 925 mb level on the gfs,,,that has everything to do with how cold the surface will be. A nice offshore flow and at least -12c at that level would go along ways at driving our temperatures well into the 20’s for highs for at least a few days. I would like to see some of the models hinting at -20c close to Portland before I start getting very excited about this event topping 1998, 2004,,,and maybe even more before 1996 like event.

  8. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    I would love a Dec 1998 repeat…not a lot of snow, but a some decent cold.

    19th: 35.4/21.5
    20th: 27.4/13.6
    21st: 26.3/12.2–1″
    22nd: 31.3/8.9
    23rd: 30.0/10.6
    24th: 41.5/24.6-1.5″

  9. Tetra says:

    The Clark County Washington climate summery/map doesn’t work as it loads and stops 1/4th the way.

    31.8F here.

    If this blog were around in 1998 when the internet was *new* how would you folks handle the *Artic Blast* in mid-late December?

    What would the models have done?

    • Matthew says:

      Mid Dec 1998 was a real arctic outbreak. 3 days of 20
      s and some lower 20’s at that…I believe the low at PDX was around 11f for one morning. Amazing outbreak. I remember watching Mark Nelson on Koin back than as it was coming in.

      I also remember the 1996 event.

  10. Ooops almost forgot…………30 Deg. here.

    Humidity ??% + Wind ?@???mph = Busted Weather Station LOL

    Can’t wait til my birthday next week……The wife promised me a new one

  11. Currently 39.2°F with a DP of 23°F – there’s a good breeze going too. . . .

    SO ready for snow!!!

  12. Ok………..I’ve seen enough. I would like to make a proposal.
    We should rename THIS particular winter pattern LE WEENEE instead of EN NINO


  13. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    31 d, and 25 is the dew point! woooo

  14. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    0z WRF-GFS

    7:00 AM Monday

  15. wendy-silverlake,WA says:

    Private Pilot, did you move on me?

  16. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    LEEEETTTTSSSSS GGGGGGOOOOO EUUURRRRROOOO!!!! boy do i have a good feeling about this!

  17. Boydo3 500' N Albany says:

    So far the long range charts aren’t really looking typical El Nino. And the ocean off the west coast and in the gulf of AK isn’t warmer than average. Ski areas up and down the west coast are open early and in many of the Rocky Mtn areas. Wondering how this plays out for the rest of the winter. Should be fun.

  18. PrivatePilotWA - Battle Ground says:

    WOW. 32 already tonight. Gonna be a cold morning.

    • muxpux says:

      30 here in Longview already…

      31 at the house. been frosty since at least 7pm.

      28 in olympia

    • wendy-silverlake,WA says:

      27 here!

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Geez you guys hog all the cold, I am at a mild 36.1F with a breeze from the NE.

    • Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

      Still 40 here

    • wendy-silverlake,WA says:

      Muxpux. We haven’t lost the frost all day.I think the high for the day topped out at 37. Nice and toasty. I decided to mow the lawn to make the snow fall look better and my kids thought the green “slushie” in the lawn mower bag was gross. By the way, mowing yards when they are frozen works a lot better than you think it does. Much easier than just wet grass, in case anyone decides they want there yards to look pretty when the snows falls as well 🙂

  19. PrivatePilotWA - Battle Ground says:

    WOW. 32 already, gonna be a cold morning.

  20. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Is this the best run so far for the 0z all week?

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:


    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Ok well since that’s the case and the EURO has been fantastic the last couple of runs, that means tonight should be historic looking, over the top brutally cold, devastating and all those other terms you can say for very cold/snowy weather!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      It’s possible tonight’s 0z EURO is great yeah… I’d just be satisfied if it’s in line with the GFS. Would like to see a prolonged arctic event with perhaps a reload next Friday…

    • NR says:

      Rob, reload Friday? I didn’t see that.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Oh no I’m saying I’d like to see tonight’s 0z show a reload next Friday. Sorry if I had not explained myself thoroughly enough.

  21. ghcshweather says:

    What will be interesting to watch is which model is correct for next week, the GFS or the EURO!!

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I would go with a blend personally. I’m just hoping tonight’s 0z EURO is in near total agreement with the GFS so we don’t have any real discrepancies in the short term and that it too shows a trend to colder for longer.

  22. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    hmmm 996 low to our west?? oh really…

  23. Karl Bonner says:

    I notice that the local TV forecasts and and are still pretty conservative when it comes to cold, at least west of the Cascades. Your station in Portland is the only one predicting serious cold intrusion west of the mountains; the FOX station for Eugene just says low 40s for Sun and Mon with a slight chance of moisture.

    Are any of the models suggesting that the weekend might be much colder in Portland than in Eugene? Usually the south Valley, at least at night, gets about 2-5 degrees colder than the PDX metro area on clear winter nights — IF the same airmass penetrates both cities to roughly the same degree. But if it hits Portland hard and Eugene only gets brushed, we might escape the worst of it down here.

    (please forgive my use of words like plague and worst if you are a fan of Arctic air!)

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Karl, tonight’s 0z shows the arctic front blasts through PDX even moving past Eugene. We may see forecasts on TV tonight changed with temps being bumped downwards.

  24. Doppler Dave (NE PDX) says:

    Although the prospects for cold look very encouraging, the prospects for any precipitation over the next several days look hopelessly low. At least cold sunshine beats out warm rain in my book.

  25. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    39.6F (Last night’s low was 38.6F)
    DP 19F
    East wind 20-30mph.
    Highest gust in the past hour: 38.8mph @ 7:56 AM

  26. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    0z WRF-GFS

    7:00 AM Saturday

    Light east wind seems to develop.

  27. NR says:

    I’m also picking up that the gorge gradient will be weak to nil once the front has gone through, and won’t start until Tuesday at the earliest. With no winds and 850mb temps <-10c, Portland could easily get to near 10.

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      Hmmm, I see the east wind starting late Friday/Saturday, increasing into the night Saturday.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Okay well looking out to hour 174 appears any real moderation now holds off until Thursday at the earliest…

      Quite a change from the previous 3 model runs…
      I’m interested in seeing tonight’s 0z WRF-GFS to see what the PDX-DLS and OTH-GEG cross-cascade gradient show from Saturday night onward.

    • NR says:

      But then gone by Sunday morning.

  28. pgiorgio says:

    I see the blast is looking more powerful

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