I just went through the most horrific experience a weather geek could suffer on a night like tonight. The DSL service at home slowed to a total crawl from 8:30pm to right after 10. By that I mean it was agony to even look at ONE GFS image. Seriously, it was slower than the old dialup. I actually gave up about 9:00pm; knowing that all the other weather folks had seen new model information but I couldn’t even though I had nothing else to do! Apparently the line down my road is the old copper variety which means the more people on this line get online, the slower it gets. So WHO on my road was watching Netflix on downloading movies tonight??? Ughhh! Suddenly at 10:15pm it sped up to a reasonable speed, so I’ve analyzed all the latest info in the last 15 minutes. By the way, we had to switch schedules around and I worked the early shows due to some co-worker’s flying around the USA. That’s why I’m home. I’m not fired…at least for now.
1. The cold snap is most definitely still on, although if we model ride a bit one could say it’s not quite as cold in the last two runs of the GFS. ECMWF at 12z came in colder and much more like the GFS. Strong and very cold offshore flow ramps up Saturday night and Sunday. Coldest day should be Monday. I dropped the 7 Day highs a couple notches due to the increasing agreement between models. I see others are beginning to follow…
2. Perfect forecast today with increasing easterly gradients (almost 6mb. now PDX-DLS) and a BIG drop in dewpoints everywhere. Dry air has surged south out of Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. No fog or clouds in sight the next few days. If you stay calm at your home, you might see 22-27 degrees the next few nights. Maybe an 18-20 in Vernonia?
3. 00z NAM is the only model spinning up some moisture Saturday morning for now…hope it stays that way.
4. Will there be some sort of big transition event the middle of next week? Maybe.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen