Spaghetti-Like Maps

Here’s a nice image that displays the challenges of the long term forecast.  It’s the various GFS ensemble members for Tuesday, December 8th (D+8 forecast).  A bit of confusion eh?

Okay, back at it this evening.  I just perused the 00z maps to compare with the last 24 hours.  There had been quite a bit of excitement with various models (Canadian and GFS) showing arctic air intrusions into the Pacific Northwest at differing time periods.  Of course each model run has been different.  Notice the spaghetti chart is a huge mess from the 12z GFS.    That’s unusually messy for Day 8.  Now the 00z models are in and I don’t see any sign of a big blast of cold air;  that’s due to models showing the upper level ridge staying quite close to the Coast.  What I do see is classic El Nino conditions.  High pressure nearby, a wet southerly jet across the USA, and cool offshore flow for more than half the 7 day forecast here in the Pacific Northwest.  Since the first week of December is just around the corner, any offshore flow will keep us chilly.  It’s tough to get high temps above about 52 at PDX with easterly flow December through January.  More likely in the 45-50 degree range later next week.  Add to that overnight lows down in the 20s in outlying areas and it’s going to really feel like December around here as we progress through the next 7-10 days.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

344 Responses to Spaghetti-Like Maps

  1. Andy in Woodinville says:

    For what it`s worth, this is what komo4 weather has to say about the cold weather in the long range…

    “By Friday, you’ll notice some VERY cold air plunging in from Canada. Highs over the first weekend of December will struggle to cross 40, and lows will drop into the 20s for most of Puget Sound. Gusty north winds will bring a sharper intensity to that already cold air mass.

    So if it will be that cold, what about a chance for snow…? So far it looks like we’ll dry out the atmosphere here locally just as the coldest air is seeping in. However, be sure to stay tuned to KOMO 4 News for the latest.

    Meteorologist Shannon O’Donnell
    The KOMO4 Forecast Team”

  2. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    46.3F here

  3. Jackfrost (Beaverton) says:

    I haven’t posted here in a while but I’ve been watching! It looks like we might get our first cold stretch, can’t wait! I must say this feels eerily like last year.

  4. 40.4°…..With the possibilities of an upcoming artic blast, we need to keep an eye on temperatures up north in eastern Alaska, NWT, Yukon Territories, etc…

  5. Tetra says:

    Should I send in Mr Data to analyze/scan these maps?

    39.9F here but low clouds/fog trying to form which is ruining it all. 😛 😦

  6. -3F in Barrow, Alaska

    Now that is a ocean with white caps.

  7. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    Now there is fog forming, freezing fog that is 32F warmed up slightly.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    Basically at this point if the two sister lows form near the date line as models have been showing for awhile now that this cold regime arctic blast(s) would nearly be a done deal.

  9. stevied (North Portland) says:

    That’s some serious cold in the Columbia Basin and Central Oregon. Oh, and notice how far south into California the cold air goes. May be some interesting weather down there!

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Thanks for updating the temperatures Mark! 🙂

    • stevied (North Portland) says:

      Yes, thanks Mark. I think it’s appropriate. Taking the models at face value at this point (6.5 days out) wouldn’t be smart. Other local mets will follow, as they usually do. Way to be a trendsetter.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      I think its just cool to see those low numbers.

  11. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    WOW!

    0z WRF-GFS 36km model

    933mb low S-SW of the Aleutians!

    Prediction: This low will buckle the entire pattern causing improved retrogression. Watch for this.

  12. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Ooooohhh…ahhhhhhh… pretty colors.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    A step in the right direction. I think it may be a little conservative, but smart for now. Granted with the strong east winds I don’t think we make it above freezing.

    So.. a dry arctic frontal passage, or surprise snow with low pressure development?

    Last December I remember the arctic boundary hung up on the Canadian Border as tiny lows spun south of Vancouver Island…. Then on Sunday the 14th? (not sure) the arctic boundary moved through PDX producing snow showers some heavy. Another low spun off the central Oregon Coast rotating band of snow showers up over the Willamette Valley. It’s realistic to suggest that may occur again. Models never seem to handle the situation very well when cold arctic air dumps out off Vancouver Island and where a low may form along the attendant arctic front.

    Just my thoughts.

  14. Tetra says:

    I only remember Picard so should I summon Mr Data to anaylize all this? 😉

    He is relaxing in the Holodeck right now thinking he is in Honolulu at the beach……………………..

  15. Anthony Bertolo - Gresham 500' says:

    GFS at face value in lalaland would give us ~10″ of snow. Remember, here in the valley the cold air is always stubborn to push out, especially when you have fairly cool weather trying to do it, and then another shot right after with 1.75″ of precip = 10″+ of snow.

    Now, not saying snow is going to happen. BUT, this setup is favorable for at minimum, transition event. We must watch the position of the ridge, as well as the monster storm out 170W, those are the keys to our setup.

    • goducks09 (Oatfield, OR) says:

      I CANNOT wait to see the satellite pictures/loops of that mammoth out at 170W later next week.

  16. stevied (North Portland) says:

    Anyone noticed the new 7-day???
    High of 35 Sunday and Low of 25. Cha-ching!

  17. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    It would be safe to say that “something of some sort is approaching the PNW” if these models consistantly show this pattern in the next couple of days…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

      Its getting even more rediculous than last night’s run…

      Take a look at this hell spawn, right behind the high pressure zone.

      943mb center at 167W (approximately)

  18. Boydo3 says:

    OK, this is the voice of reason reason reason (that’s an echo).
    A pattern has been identified but not yet verified. Maybe a Spock like approach is in order now. Calm observance.

  19. Confused.... says:

    Wait. Does Portland have any chance for snow or does this only apply to the Seattle area?

  20. 34.4F and fog rolling in tonight, so maybe not as cold as last night.

  21. Andy in Woodinville says:

    WOW…are we kidding? GFS 16day has a whopping bone chilling, eye watering, frost biting -6F on 12/12 and -5F on 12/13 for lows for Seattle area!

  22. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Btw, Eugene was foggy with temps around 40F ALL DAY today… Wierd.

  23. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    So is this 00z GFS model run the best since last night’s 00z run?

  24. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Canadian model in agreement out to 144h…a bit less cold than GFS

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      As long as it is in agreement with the main features that’s all I care about. The cold will come and details of how cold will become apparent later this week.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      Don’t you think?

  25. goducks09 (Oatfield, OR) says:

    If this continues, it will be a VERY unproductive week at work…:)

    • Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

      Yeah, I remember last year how this awesome weather excitement just wears you out. Day after day of not much sleep, going outside a lot to experience the elements and eating a lot of junk food or food that fills you up but has no real nutritional value. (At least thats what I did.) You felt sick and take the period of least excitement in the weather to sleep, sometimes during the day and then that messes up your sleep cycle even more! 😮 But it’s all fun and worth while since these are rather rare events.

  26. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    0z GFS Extracted Text Output for Bellingham.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBLI
    Why am I using Bellingham’s?

    Look at the extended section. You can see the 2nd blast in progress here… Likely it’s pushes well south of the Fraser River valley into Puget Sound by the 11th/12th.

  27. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    31.8F So excited for this potential arctic blast. Hope this time though if it all materializes that we get a big snow storm. I want to get 12+ inches out of one storm, since I missed out on the one last year and just got a bunch of freezing rain.

  28. Soul Crushed says:

    This just in…

    …..more mindless speculation on the Fox 12 Weather Blog.

    Film at 11.

  29. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    From the NWS Seattle…

    .LONG TERM…LATEST GFS CONTINUES THE IDEA OF SNEAKING ONE MORE WEAK
    COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND THEN AMPLIFYING THE
    RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF HUGE STORMS THAT
    DEVELOP IN SUCCESSION OUT ARND 170W. THAT SWITCHES THE WEATHER
    PATTERN TO COLD AND DRY OVR WRN CANADA AND THE PACNW BY THE WEEKEND.
    A LITTLE EARLY TO SOUND THE ALARMS ON THIS BUT FOR THE MOMENT THE
    GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND THE GFS
    CERTAINLY DEVELOPS AWFULLY COLD AIR OVER THE PACNW A WEEK FROM NOW.
    SOMETHING TO WATCH.

    • Andy in Woodinville says:

      Ah ha! So the Seattle NWS mentions about COLD WEATHER! Did we spot this before the NWS did, or were they waiting for the right moment to say something about it?

    • Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

      The NWS is a government entity meant to warn the public, but at the same time, not sound a ton of false alarms. They watch the models the way we all do.

    • 2 Dolla Bill says:

      No we did not spot a potential outbreak before the NWS. They do not get everyone in a panic before they have reasonably accurate data.

  30. Andy in Woodinville says:

    That shot at 252hrs for Seattle just looks so great as an area of low pressure under cuts the cold and swings into NW Oregon, which possibly gives Portland and surrounding close by areas a chilly rain with maybe some hill top snow, while giving Central sound area some snow for sure…for what is shown.

  31. goducks09 (Oatfield, OR) says:

    I sort of agree with Paul…140w is just too close for comfort. BUT, this is a trend you just can’t deny!!!

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