A Thanksgiving Fantasy

Happy Thanksgiving! 

To celebrate the big day I found this map in tonight’s 00z GFS model run.  Click on it to see a much better view.  It’s the 324 hour forecast;  that’s ONLY two weeks from tonight!  The image includes surface pressure, rainfall, and 500-1000mb thickness.  It shows a cold arctic high dropping into Montana and southern British Columbia/Alberta.  At the same time warm and very wet Pacific flow is surging in from the southwest.  This is a great setup for an ice storm  in the Gorge and probably into the Metro Area as well.  One can only dream eh?  Well, something to dream about while enjoying the turkey.  Two other things quite obvious on recent maps; we are in ridging or split flow along the West Coast through the next 7-14 days.  There were hints on the ECMWF and a bit here on the 00z GFS that some slight retrogression may occur beyond 5 days.  That allows cooler air (probably not arctic) to come south for gusty east wind and sunshine Tuesday and beyond next week.    Other than that it’s dry, dry dry.    The 2nd regime I notice is an active southern jet stream.  Several systems move from Texas east through Florida during the next 10 days.  Possibly (as indicated on this map) California starts to get wet at some point too.  Of course all of this is classic El Nino weather.  But just as we can’t attribute any one weather event to Global Warming, we can’t just take the first week or two of this pattern and say “El Nino is here!”.  Now if this pattern recurs several times between now and early February?  That’s a different story and something we might expect with an ongoing El Nino episode.

I’ll be back at work Saturday, but no blog updates between now and then.  Enjoy the holiday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

173 Responses to A Thanksgiving Fantasy

  1. Mixer Mixing Mixed Yevgeniy Mixed Mixing Mixer says:

    i can’t believe the latest run just puked all over everything and ran away

  2. Tetra says:

    Mark will you please try to control bullies better instead of everyone consiring against me or anybody who gives the slightest critic?

  3. Tetra says:

    J.R. (Flavel St. 253ft) Says:

    November 28, 2009 at 3:01 pm
    did u really need to copy and paste what has already been said in this blog tetra? unlike you we comprehend things.

    Two words: Shut up. 😛

    Furthermore I can do things how I wish to. In fact I could copy and past everything every post on here but that would be pointless and spammy.

    Now before I got RUDELY interuppted I was going to post my temp on here..

    49F and mostly cloudy after a few hours of bright sunshine which was rather nice.

    Clouds are from the north and dew point is the lowest in a long time. 34F which means a faster temp drop once it gets dark unless clouds ruin the fun.


    Next time plese actually CONTRIBUTE something.

    You dont’ want to find out what happens when I lose my temper so don’t push me buttons or it will be worse then Western Weather.

  4. Tetra says:

    goducks09 Says:

    November 28, 2009 at 11:31 am | Reply
    Over at WesternWX I sometimes hear people talking about the GEM model. Is it reliable

    LOL Hardly anything is reliable at Western Weather as they will twist things to fit their agenda/excitment though lately theyev’e bee n getting new cmembers that actually CONTRIBUTE something.

  5. PaulB/Eugene says:

    Too little faith in models 8-14 days out to excited about anything, although it is a friendly reminder that we are now in the time of the year when arctic outbreaks can happen.

    GFS 12Z and 00Z runs interesting…with 12Z ensembles showing a modest amount of support of operational run, versus no support from 00Z ensemble run.

    GEM (canadian) 12Z operational shows possibility of arctic air, although nothing extreme, but has pretty good ensemble support, with high confidence of pattern amplification, less confidence of where the trough will go.

    NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF not showing anything supportive as far out as the runs go

    Bottom line: don’t get excited yet (would not get excited until within 96-120 hours of arctic invasion)..better yet….wait until NE winds arrive in Bellingham.

  6. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    If 850mb temps are -10/-12C what would the temp down in the valley translate into for farenheit?

    • Randy says:


      Generally speaking, that would be about 28-32 degrees farenheit. It could be a wider range depending on atmospheric conditions.


  7. goducks09 says:

    Over at WesternWX I sometimes hear people talking about the GEM model. Is it reliable?

    • Tetra says:

      goducks09 Says:

      November 28, 2009 at 11:31 am | Reply
      Over at WesternWX I sometimes hear people talking about the GEM model. Is it reliable?

      LOL Hardly anything is reliable at WesternWX as almsot everything will be twisted to fit their agenda.

      Look at some of the latest threads thouogh it’s gotten A LITTLE better then in the past.

  8. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    I REALLY hope 0z GFS tonight doesn’t back off with the goodies or reverts more to the EURO solution….

    I am hopeful due to the 12z GFS ensembles shifting to colder.

  9. goducks09 says:

    Hey Rob, its good to hear you chiming in on this!
    First off, can someone link me to the 12z GFS. All I am able to see is this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/epac/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_192m.gif

    Secondly, what time does the 12z EURO come out?

    Thank You!

  10. Snow-Zone/Monmouth-Elv200' says:

    I am ready for really cold weather. Time to see all the ponds and small lakes start to freeze over.

  11. Sandberg says:

    Hi, I was just wondering what time do the models usually run?

  12. Tetra says:

    After a low of 42F in the early AM hours I am now at 45F with mostly cloudy skies and filtered sun.

    Still now 32F yet and we are nearing Decemburrrr.

  13. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z GFS ensembles now showing a shift to some agreement. In fact a few are VERY cold. The block is gigantic. Could be something promising brewing.

    Now let’s see 12z EURO be nice to us. 🙂

  14. 40.7° and sunny skies, looks like a very nice day ahead.

  15. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    2 GFS runs the past 24 hours rather similar if not bumped timing ahead slightly… I find it interesting the 0z and 12z showing this, soo we can wipe out the 6z/18z in my honest opinion… Look for the EURO to come around with either today’s 12z or tonight’s 00z…. Just a hunch.

    • Timmy - Scappoose says:

      I like the pattern, but I don’t like the extended in the 12z, the pattern for the all out outbreak around day 11-12 is unbelievable. we just dont get that around here with the cold air coming from due east. but the more believable around day 7 is comforting and looks similar to our normal arctic air with cold gorge outflow. as always, we are the PNW and even though there isnt much moisture in the models, we always seem to find some.

  16. stevied (North Portland) says:

    12z not as good as 00z last night, but still begins the arctic pattern setup in less than a week, eventually bringing in a major arctic blast… really looking forward to 00z tonight. C’mon baby.. hold it together. I need the 18z and 00z tonight to show this before I start really thinking this actually might happen.

    • Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

      I need the EURO/ensembles to come to an agreement… Then we’d see all 6z/12z/18z/00z look similar.

  17. Rob "Wrath" S.E. Portland says:

    12z GFS up to day 7 to me isn’t all that bad, it could be worse. Looks somewhat chilly with lots of offshore flow of varying strengths. What I really like is the bitter cold really builds to our north (and not very far north) up into British Columbia, Alberta, and the NW Territories.

    Several strong areas of high pressure 1035-1047mb nose southward towards the Washington/British Columbia border. Basically with any retrogression of the mean ridge position offshore near 130-135 W we will tap into the cold very quickly. So yes it could have been worse.

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