Almost Here!

All of us are watching that low approaching the Coast tonight.  I was distracted by about 2 hours of Netflix viewing with the family, but they are in bed and now it’s time for the weather party!   Too many people on my road are downloading movies, or something else, because my connection is REALLY slow.  Which means plenty of time to analyze each image of the IR loop. 

Looks like at 11pm the low is just about straight west of Astoria, maybe just about on top of Buoy 46089?  Notice the strong wind there suddenly went light WSW.  If it had gone south of that point the wind would have clocked around to the north and then northwest.  If it was very far north, the strong south wind would have gone gusty SW.  Pressure is 988 mb at 11pm there.  Pressure was forecast to be 987mb at 11pm, but the low was supposed to be west of Hoquiam on the WRF-GFS.  WRF-NAM had it slightly farther north than it is now and a bit weaker.   Satellite presentation (comma shape, vapor darkening, and cold air behind) are very nice.   How about the 8.2 millibar drop in pressure at PDX in the last 3 hours?  That’s very impressive.

So I still think we’re on for a quick burst of wind maybe 3 hours from now in the Metro area.  For the sake of verification tomorrow, I’ll say S-SW 30 with gusts 45-55 mph at the airports.  This will be enough to wake most people up and give us plenty of power outages.  It’s not a big windstorm forecast, but since the depth of the low is tracking well with the models, I don’t see a good reason to get crazy.  We haven’t gone above 49 mph at PDX in two years so this could be a big one.

I’ll be hanging out in the comment section until bedtime.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

222 Responses to Almost Here!

  1. N3EG says:

    37 mph gusts at my low-lying anemometer here overnight (6:14am) in Longview. Just had another 26mph gust as I’m typing. Let’s not forget the 1″ of rain though…

  2. …Wow…my power went out at 4:50 am…just now came back on….fun night!!!!! 🙂

  3. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Public Information Statement

    Statement as of 5:45 am PST on November 22, 2009

    … Yet another strong round of winds rock the coast…

    A strong low pressure center moved onshore near seaside overnight.
    Strong winds hit the coast shortly before midnight… spreading
    inland after midnight. Winds have peaked already… and are now
    decreasing.

    Damage reports mostly limited downed trees along coastal highways
    and numerous power outages across all of the area. As of 5 am…
    Portland general electric reported 15,000 to 20,000 customers were
    without power. In addition… the wind did create minor damage… such
    as ripping an awning off a house in Rockaway Beach.

    The following are reported sustained winds and wind gusts…

    Location sustained peak gust time of gust
    ==============================================================
    … On the South Washington coast…
    Ocean Park 72 mph 430 am sun
    Toke Point 44 mph 406 am sun
    Long Beach 65 mph 535 am sun
    Long Beach 51 mph 456 am sun

    … On the north Oregon coast…
    Astoria (us 101 bridge) 57 mph 73 mph 433 am sun
    Astoria (airport) 35-40 mph 58 mph 445 am sun
    Clatsop Spit 52 mph 60 mph 500 am sun
    Tillamook (5 mi nw) 60 mph 220 am sun
    Tillamook (airport) 51 mph 210 am sun
    Rockaway Beach 58 mph 300 am sun
    Garibaldi (NWS sensor) 50 mph 67 mph 336 am sun
    Cape Meares 61 mph 220 am sun

    … On the central Oregon coast…
    Lincoln City 35-40 mph 63 mph 1253 am sun
    Gleneden Beach 81 mph 1223 am sun
    Cape Foulweather 52 mph 78 mph 125 am sun
    Newport (us 101 bridge) 60 mph 74 mph 100 am sun
    Newport (airport) 41 mph 60 mph 1150 PM Sat
    Newport (4 mi nw) – — 82 mph 1244 am sun
    Newport jetty 45-50 mph 71 mph 1200 am sun
    Waldport 55-60 mph 74 mph 1255 am sun
    Yachats 58 mph 1150 PM Sat
    sea lion caves 66 mph 80 mph 1134 PM Sat
    Florence (siuslaw jetty) 60 mph 76 mph 1157 PM Sat

    … At the buoys…
    buoy 89 (60 nm offshr) 50-52 mph 64 mph 200 am sun
    Stonewall Bank (#50) 45-48 mph 62 mph 1200 am sun

    … The Oregon Coast Range…
    Mount Hebo 44 mph 93 mph 210 am sun

    … In the interior valleys…
    Kelso 40-45 mph 300 am sun
    Orchards (clark county) 50 mph 310 am sun
    Vancouver (airport) 43 mph 247 am sun
    Portland (airport) 51 mph 258 am sun
    Troutdale (airport) 50 mph 315 am sun
    Forest Grove 48 mph 245 am sun
    Aurora (airport) 48 mph 137 am sun
    Salem (airport) 48 mph 109 am sun
    Lebanon 44 mph 1222 am sun
    Eugene (airport) 45 mph 205 am sun

  4. Jethro (Molalla) says:

    Well, that was fun, but a little disappointing here in Mo-town. We topped out around 35mph, which puts it about the same as Monday night.

    Looks like some of the highest winds in the PDX metro area did indeed come from the airports:

    HIO: 44mph
    PDX: 44mph
    VUO: 43mph
    UAO: 41mph

    Glenn Jackson bridge did record a 51, but all readings are listed as “suspect”.

  5. Andrew Johnson says:

    Just noticed PDX only has about 4″ of rain so far this month. With a break in the rain coming up for a few days it is quite possible they end up below average again, which is shocking considering how the month has gone. SLE has gotten about 7″ so far this month and is running well above normal in the rainfall department. Snowing heavily in the Cascades right now and there is also snow falling across much of Central and Eastern Oregon. Timberline already has a 69″ base and even Ski Bowl has 40″. The models show a bit of a break for the PNW this week and I’d bet the valley will develop an inversion as 850mb temps rise and end up peaking around +10C. Then a little more rain and a cool down into Thanksgiving weekend. At least on the last few runs the long range has been trending cooler. There is a ton of cold air thats been sitting up north for a few weeks and my guess is that around or after the 1st of December its going to start making its presence felt at the lower latitudes.

  6. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Nice rainfall total on radar…

  7. wiliam johnson says:

    I have to ask this question ok i live here in astoria we lost power around 5 am and just got it back on shortly before 7 am it is 7:10 am now and we are still getting pretty severe wind gusts here why has the national weather service dropped the high wind warning i would say its still going on quite strong and doesnt seem to be letting up at all to me thats quite rediculous you dont drop high wind warnings until the system has passed and it sure hasnt but that is expected we are the unimportant coast we dont matter we are not the valley . william

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Sorry I was asleep the entire night I was so tired… What did I miss? I believe power never went out here.

  9. Tetra says:

    I am dimming the blog room lights down to 1/4ths usage of power.

    If it weren’t for the fact we could have MORE windy weather after midnight due to a low up in Western WA *according to the bulletin* I’d shut them off altogether/completely.

    I m done for a long while.

  10. Tetra says:

    I M with you on that one Mike. 5 hours of no lights from this weak thing?

  11. Power back on at 5:00am, so in the dark for 5 hours. This wind storm not as good as last one for me, only had a peak gust of 23.9mph, which is -15mph from last wind storm. Pressure back up to 29.78″

  12. Tetra says:

    From the looks of the trees I’d say about 35-39mph. The first storm a week ago I had was actually better and I saw a power line archtogether/slap together during it and a transformer boom. 😮

    This is like the pits man. :p You seriously call this a windstorm!!? 😮 😮 😕

  13. Tetra says:

    Should I turn off the lights then?

  14. Tetra says:

    Well Rob you did say it would be a gust or bust.

    For me it’s a bust.

  15. Annie in Vancouver says:

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    344 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009

    .A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER
    MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS TO THE
    COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
    NORTHWEST OREGON.

    …WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING
    FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING THE GREATER PORTLAND AND
    VANCOUVER AREAS…THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN
    COWLITZ COUNTY…

    A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING.

    GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS OF 20
    TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
    7 AM….THEN WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE LATER THIS MORNING.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
    31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
    THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
    PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
    CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

    &&

  16. Annie in Vancouver says:

    I’m up to 29.60 from a low of 29.43

    how luch higher will it go? And will it cause more strong winds, or for them to continue? I’m trying to decide whether I should snooze or not!

  17. Tyler in Hazel Dell says:

    Pressure up to 29.49″, still strong gusts of wind, rain moving in.

  18. Troutcast says:

    Power back on in my neighborhood in NE Vancouver/Orchards. The quiet inside and wind outside was nice while it lasted. It has definately calmed.

    • Ryann says:

      I’m very curious to know where you are. I’m in NE Van/ Orchards and have had power all night. I have heard of others near me w/o power.

    • Annie in Vancouver says:

      Troutcast & Ryann – where are you both located exactly? I’m around the 86th & Burton Rd area.

    • Jenna says:

      A little late posting, but we’re a couple blocks east of Padden and 137th and we were without power for approx 2 hours.

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